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Which trees and places does the forecast cover?
The project covers red maple, sugar maple, sweetgum, northern red oak, American beech, black gum, sassafras, and Norway maple. Its stated geographic bounds are latitude 38.5–47.5 and longitude −80.5 to −66.9, covering parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. It does not forecast every tree species or locations outside that area.
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The practical question is: if you encounter one of these species nearby this weekend, is it more likely to be green, colored, or bare—and which day might offer the best chance of seeing color? The forecast concerns the status of an encountered tree, not the percentage of a park, forest, or neighborhood canopy that has turned.
How to use the weekend forecast
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Check whether your location falls within the project’s stated bounds and whether the tree you hope to see is one of the eight listed species.
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Open the project’s weekend summary card to compare the predicted green, colored, and bare status across the coming weekend. The project also provides daily predictions for the next 15 days.
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Use the predictions as a guide to timing, not a promise about a particular tree. Local conditions and variation among individual trees mean a species-level probability may not match every tree you encounter.
What goes into the predictions?
According to project author Bowen Rui’s description, the model combines historical iNaturalist observations with this season’s weather and TabPFN v2. The author reports querying observations from September through November in 2018–2025. The API returned 10,877 observations; after filtering, 6,650 remained. The reported retained labels were 3,457 green, 2,846 colored, and 347 bare.
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The author says filtering excluded cultivated trees, casual-grade records, records with obscured or insufficiently precise coordinates, conflicting leaf annotations, observations without usable annotation, and records without open licenses. These counts describe the project’s dataset; they do not establish that observations are evenly distributed across species, places, or dates.
Inputs include species, latitude, longitude, elevation, day of year, and day length. Weather features include accumulated chilling degree days since September 1, frost and cold-night counts, recent minimum and mean temperatures, 30-day rainfall, and how current fall temperatures compare with other falls at the same location. The project says it uses the same ERA5 archive for historical weather and weather to date, and forecast weather for today and the following 14 days.
What the reported model evaluation says
The project author reports choosing model settings using 2024 validation data, then evaluating once on held-out 2025 observations. On that evaluation, TabPFN v2 with all features had an accuracy of 0.805, log loss of 0.498, and Brier score of 0.285. The author’s comparison reports:
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| Model | 2025 accuracy | 2025 log loss | 2025 Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|
| TabPFN v2, all features | 0.805 | 0.498 | 0.285 |
| Gradient-boosted trees | 0.802 | 0.505 | 0.291 |
| Climatology | 0.752 | 0.581 | 0.345 |
These are author-reported results, not an independent evaluation. The author reports that TabPFN improved log loss by 0.021 over the preselected baseline, while the gradient-boosted-tree result was close and not significantly different. Weather features improved log loss by 0.018 over a calendar-only TabPFN configuration on the 2025 test. The author characterizes the main benefit as better probability quality rather than a large gain in top-class accuracy.
Performance also varied by species in the project’s analysis: TabPFN led for red maple, sugar maple, and American beech, while simpler models did better for northern red oak, black gum, sweetgum, and sassafras. That variation argues against treating one overall score as equally informative for every species.
How much confidence should you place in the current-season check?
For the 2026 live pipeline, the author reports 99 filtered annotated observations from September 26 to October 5: 77 green and 22 colored. Reported log losses were 0.454 for TabPFN and 0.436 for logistic regression. The author says the sample is too small to rank the models confidently, so these early figures do not establish the forecast’s accuracy for the 2026 season.
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How this project fits into plant-phenology forecasting
Forecasting seasonal plant events is not new. A 2020 Ecological Applications paper describes an automated system covering 78 US species and forecasting events such as budburst, flowering, ripe fruit, and fall color up to six months ahead, with updates every four days. That broader system provides context, not a head-to-head performance comparison: the two efforts differ in coverage, horizon, and design.
Long-term observations also show why a single rule about temperature and fall color can mislead. A Harvard Forest study using observations from 1993–2010 examined eight species and found that autumn-color timing and amount were associated with temperature and precipitation at particular times of year, with responses differing by species and phenophase. In that study’s analysis, warmer autumn temperatures were associated with later full display and leaf fall in red maple. This is not a universal direction of change for all trees or locations.
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Useful for: gauging whether one of the covered species may be green, colorful, or bare in the coming days, within the stated region.
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Not a guarantee: a probability for a species and day cannot promise the appearance of a particular tree.
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Not a canopy map: the predicted status of encountered trees is different from estimating the proportion of a whole landscape showing color.
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Coverage matters: the project’s retained observations and eight-species scope do not represent every tree, place, or fall.
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