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Uzbekistan’s goods-and-services trade deficit reached $13.4 billion in the first half of 2026, as imports rose faster than exports. That can increase demand for foreign currency and, if foreign-currency inflows do not keep pace, put pressure on the sum. It does not guarantee a weaker currency or higher prices: income, investment flows, policy and market conditions also matter.
What do the latest Uzbekistan trade figures show?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan’s September 29, 2026 review reports that exports totaled $15.4 billion in the first half of 2026, down 8.6% from the same period a year earlier. Imports rose 24% to $28.8 billion, leaving a $13.4 billion trade deficit. These are six-month figures, not a full-year result or forecast.
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The headline export decline does not describe every export category. The Central Bank says falling gold exports drove much of the decrease in total exports, while non-gold exports grew 27% and services exports grew 45%. It attributes import growth to machinery and equipment, vehicles, chemical and mineral products, and food, amid sustained investment activity and strong domestic consumer demand. Central Bank H1 2026 review
Why is Uzbekistan importing more than it exports?
The figures point to more than one source of import demand. Machinery and equipment can be associated with investment, while food, vehicles and other goods may also reflect household or business demand. The Central Bank identifies these factors, but the totals alone do not establish what any particular import was used for or whether it will create future export capacity.
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Export totals can shift for reasons beyond production volumes. Gold prices and the mix of goods and services affect the value recorded; the Central Bank’s 2025 report also noted higher global commodity prices and growth in services such as travel, transport and IT. Reading the total alongside its components gives a more useful picture of whether a change reflects gold, other goods or services.
How is the trade deficit different from the current-account deficit?
The trade balance measures exports minus imports of goods and services over a stated period. The current account is broader: it also includes primary income and secondary income, including transfers and remittances. Positive income flows can therefore reduce a current-account deficit even when imports still exceed exports.
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In the first half of 2026, Uzbekistan’s $13.4 billion trade deficit was partly offset by positive primary-income and secondary-income balances of $1.9 billion and $5.3 billion. The overall current-account deficit was about $6.2 billion. The Central Bank says it was financed mainly through direct, portfolio and other investment flows. A current-account deficit is matched in balance-of-payments accounting by financial flows, reserve transactions or other entries; it is not the same measure as the trade gap. Central Bank H1 2026 review
For full-year context, the Central Bank’s 2025 report put exports of goods and services at $32.3 billion, up 23%, and imports at $52.2 billion, up 20%. The trade balance was negative by $19.9 billion. The current-account deficit was smaller, at $5.8 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, compared with $5.7 billion, or 4.7% of GDP, in 2024. Net secondary income of $13.7 billion and net primary income of about $371 million partly offset the 2025 trade gap. Central Bank 2025 annual report
The H1 2026 trade deficit covers six months, whereas the $19.9 billion 2025 trade deficit covers a full year. They should not be compared as if they covered equal periods, and doubling the half-year figure would not be a reliable full-year estimate. The figures also show why trade and current-account totals can move differently: income flows change the broader balance.
Will a trade deficit make the Uzbek sum weaker?
Not automatically. Importers paying overseas suppliers may need foreign currency. If demand for it rises faster than foreign-currency earnings from exports, remittances, investment and other inflows, the imbalance can put downward pressure on the sum. The actual exchange rate and timing depend on the overall supply of foreign currency, policy, expectations and other balance-of-payments flows; the trade deficit alone does not establish a forecast.
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Recent experience cautions against treating the link as mechanical. The IMF reports that the sum appreciated 6.9% against the U.S. dollar in 2025. That happened in a year when Uzbekistan also recorded a trade deficit. The two facts do not prove that the deficit caused the appreciation; they illustrate that other forces can outweigh the import-demand channel. IMF April 2026 staff statement
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Could a weaker sum make prices rise?
If the sum weakens, imported goods and imported inputs for local businesses may cost more in local currency. That can add to price pressure, but the effect is not necessarily immediate or uniform. Sellers may absorb some cost changes; inventories, competition, administered prices and monetary conditions also influence how much reaches customers. The available figures do not support a specific price increase for an individual product.
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The IMF reported that end-2025 inflation had declined to 7.3% from 9.8% a year earlier. It attributed the decline to several factors, including fading effects from the May 2024 energy-price increases, currency appreciation and tight monetary policy. This combination is another reason not to attribute inflation movements to the trade balance alone. IMF April 2026 staff statement
Forecasts should be kept separate from measured results. The IMF’s June 2026 outlook projected a current-account deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. In an April 2026 statement, it said inflation was expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026 and reach that target in 2027. These are IMF projections, not observed outcomes. IMF June 2026 outlook IMF April 2026 staff statement
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does a trade deficit mean Uzbekistan’s economy is in trouble?
No conclusion follows from the deficit alone. Imports may serve investment or consumption, and the balance also depends on export performance, income flows and how the current-account gap is financed. Investment-related imports may accompany efforts to build capacity, but the reported totals do not prove that a particular purchase will increase future output or exports.
The composition and persistence of the gap matter. A deficit financed by durable inflows has a different profile from one that depends on less reliable financing; the H1 2026 Central Bank review identifies investment flows as the main financing source, but that fact by itself does not establish how durable those flows will be. Export concentration and changes in gold values also matter when interpreting headline totals.
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Which indicators should readers watch?
- Trade balance and composition: Track goods and services exports and imports separately, and note whether changes come from gold, other goods or services.
- Current account: Compare it with the trade balance to see how primary and secondary income affect the broader external position.
- Remittances and other income: These inflows can help fund imports and narrow the current-account gap; Uzbekistan’s 2025 net secondary income was $13.7 billion, according to the Central Bank’s annual report.
- Financing flows: Follow direct, portfolio and other investment, as well as reserve transactions, to understand how a current-account deficit is being funded.
- Exchange rate, reserves and inflation: Read the sum and inflation data alongside external balances. The IMF’s June 2026 outlook projected reserves above twelve months of imports by end-2026; that is a forecast, so check subsequent official releases for updated outcomes. IMF June 2026 outlook
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