Treat an AI-generated outage diagnosis as an investigative hypothesis, not proof. Pause any unapproved change that could alter routing, firewall policy, access controls, or workload state; preserve the incident time window; make the agent disclose its evidence and blind spots; reproduce the failure with an independent network test; and only then approve a bounded, reversible mitigation. This process separates a real root cause from a plausible-sounding explanation built on partial telemetry.
Why an AI diagnosis can be wrong
An agent can produce a technically fluent explanation while seeing only part of the system. Its reliability depends on the logs, metrics, traces, configuration history, live resource APIs, network reachability, permissions, and runbooks available to it. A diagnosis based on one reachable data source is not equivalent to a diagnosis checked against the entire path.
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Keep three statements separate during an incident:
- Symptom: what users or probes observed, such as a TCP timeout, elevated latency, or failed DNS lookup.
- Hypothesis: the cause the agent believes best explains that symptom.
- Confirmed fault: a cause supported by independent evidence and, where safe, a controlled reproduction or change result.
The agent’s confidence, detail, or speed does not turn a hypothesis into a confirmed fault. Your approval process should require evidence for the third statement.
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First response: stop unsafe changes and preserve evidence
If the recommendation would change production routes, VPN or Direct Connect settings, firewall or security-group policy, network ACLs, access controls, or workload state, do not apply it merely to test the theory. Follow the incident commander’s direction and your normal emergency-change process while keeping telemetry and configuration history intact.
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- Identify the proposed side effect. Write down exactly what the agent wants changed and which environments, regions, accounts, or services it would affect.
- Pause execution, not observation. Leave approved monitoring, packet or flow logging, and configuration capture running. Do not disable evidence collection to make the agent’s suggested action easier.
- Mark the incident window. Record the first known failure, the latest confirmed recovery, and the time zone. Preserve logs and metrics for a buffer before and after that interval so a delayed route, policy, or service event is not missed.
- Assign a human decision owner. The incident commander or designated change approver decides whether a mitigation can proceed; the diagnosing agent does not grant its own approval.
Microsoft’s incident-response setup recommends beginning with Review autonomy, and AWS guidance requires explicit human approval for specified production transit-gateway route and Direct Connect changes. Those controls are safety patterns, not permission to bypass your organization’s runbooks.
Make the agent show its work
Ask for a structured investigation record rather than another paragraph of explanation. Microsoft’s SRE Agent investigation guidance describes outputs that include the root cause, supporting evidence, recommended fix, and a checkpoint showing sources used or the next source needed. Its deeper workflow creates and tests multiple hypotheses instead of accepting the first plausible one.
Required scope
- Affected source and destination endpoints, including region, account, subscription, cluster, service, or host identifiers.
- Protocol, destination port, DNS name and resolved address, and the exact incident time window.
- Whether the failure affects all clients or only a network segment, availability zone, region, protocol, or port.
Required evidence inventory
- Logs, metrics, traces, flow records, packet or connection tests, resource APIs, configuration history, and runbooks consulted.
- The query time range and filters used for each source.
- Specific observations that support the leading cause, rather than conclusions such as “the route looks wrong.”
- Sources the agent could not reach, lacked permission to read, or did not inspect.
Required uncertainty test
- At least two plausible alternatives for the same symptom.
- The observation that would disprove the leading hypothesis.
- Any untested assumption, such as an unchanged firewall rule, stable VPN tunnel, or healthy destination listener.
Save the response exactly as received, including timestamps and query identifiers. If the agent cannot answer these questions, downgrade its conclusion to an unverified lead.
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Check whether the investigation was complete
Compare the agent’s inventory with the architecture and the incident timeline. A missing source is not a minor documentation defect: it can remove the very evidence needed to distinguish a route problem from a policy or service problem.
Microsoft’s Azure SRE Agent network documentation states: “If a critical data source is unreachable, the investigation is incomplete, and the agent reports this condition.” Treat that condition as a stop sign for root-cause certainty. Continue with reachable evidence if necessary, but label the result partial and do not describe it as confirmed.
Permission and reachability checks
- Verify that the agent’s identity could read the affected subscription, account, region, virtual network, route tables, security policies, and workload telemetry.
- Check whether an egress policy, proxy, DNS path, connector, or firewall prevented the agent from reaching a data source.
- Confirm that logs were enabled for the full interval and that retention, sampling, or ingestion delay did not create a false absence.
- Compare the resources the agent queried with the resources actually carrying the affected traffic; similarly named test and production networks are a common source of false confidence.
The Azure SRE Agent network audit has a defined limit: it covers the agent’s egress-policy decisions, not every runtime, connector, platform, firewall, DNS, or proxy event. A clean audit therefore does not prove that all relevant network sources were reachable.
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Reproduce the observation independently
Use a diagnostic method that does not rely on the agent’s interpretation. The test must use the affected source, destination, protocol, port, and approximate time conditions whenever possible.
Azure connectivity example
Azure Network Watcher Connection troubleshoot can test TCP or ICMP reachability and report reachability status, latency, hops, failed probes, and configuration issues. Its findings can include DNS-resolution failures, missing or misconfigured routes, network security group restrictions, guest-firewall blocks, socket problems, and a destination server that is not listening on the requested port.
The agentless mode is documented as preview, so treat its behavior and availability as subject to change and confirm that your resource type and region are supported. Use an approved alternative test when preview functionality is not acceptable for a production decision.
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What an independent test must answer
- Did the source resolve the intended destination address?
- Did packets or connection probes leave the source and traverse the expected hops?
- Did the forward path have a route, and did the return path have one too?
- Which policy, if any, rejected the traffic?
- Did the destination host receive the connection and have a process listening on the port?
Capture the raw result, not only a pass/fail summary. A latency change, failed hop, or policy identifier may distinguish competing explanations later.
Do not infer a unique cause from a timeout
A TCP timeout describes an outcome, not a single fault. AWS network-operations guidance lists several explanations for the same symptom: a missing transit-gateway return route, VPN instability, a network ACL gap, or a firewall rule. The correct response is to inspect the actual path and interval, not to choose whichever explanation sounds most familiar.
| Observed symptom | Hypotheses to test | Evidence that separates them |
|---|---|---|
| TCP connection times out | Missing forward or return route; unstable VPN; network ACL gap; firewall or security-group rule; destination not listening | Route-table entries in both directions, tunnel health and flap history, ACL and firewall decision logs, and destination socket/listener state |
| Hostname fails but direct address works | DNS resolution failure, stale record, wrong resolver path, or policy blocking DNS | Resolver response and timing, queried name and address, DNS-server reachability, and record-change history |
| Only one segment or region fails | Scoped route, policy, peering, gateway, or regional service issue | Same test from an unaffected segment, regional route and policy comparison, and correlated provider or device events |
| Connection reaches host but application fails | Port not listening, guest firewall, overloaded service, or application-level error | Connection-test hop results, host firewall logs, listener state, process health, and application logs for the same time |
Configuration-change history is especially valuable: a policy or route that changed immediately before the first failure deserves testing, but timing alone does not prove causation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Trace both directions of the affected path
Work from the concrete flow rather than from a service name. Record each result as confirmed, ruled out, or still open.
- Define the flow. Write the source identity and address, destination identity and address, protocol, port, DNS name, region or zone, and failure interval.
- Resolve names first. Capture the resolver used, returned addresses, response code, and response time. A test against an unintended address can make a healthy route look broken.
- Inspect the forward route. Follow the route selection from the source through virtual routers, gateways, transit services, peering, VPN, or Direct Connect to the destination network.
- Inspect the return route. Start at the destination and follow the route back to the source. A missing return route can produce the same timeout as a blocked firewall.
- Check tunnel and gateway state. Correlate VPN, transit-gateway, peering, or Direct Connect status and flap events with the incident interval.
- Evaluate policy in order. Check network ACLs, security groups, host firewalls, and other firewalls for the exact source, destination, protocol, and port. Note whether each policy allows, denies, or has no applicable rule.
- Check the endpoint. Verify that the host is healthy and that the expected process was listening on the destination port during the failure.
- Correlate timestamps. Align probe results, flow records, policy decisions, route changes, tunnel events, and service logs. Do not use an event outside the tested window as proof.
Score a diagnosis by evidence, not fluency
When two explanations remain plausible, compare them explicitly. This prevents a polished answer from outranking a less dramatic explanation that has better coverage.
| Decision axis | Questions to ask | Acceptable outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence coverage | Which logs, telemetry, configuration history, and live resource state were available for the full window? | Every material claim maps to an observed record, or the missing record is named. |
| Path coverage | Does the check include the affected source, destination, protocol, port, DNS, and forward and return paths? | The tested flow matches the user-visible failure. |
| Independence | Did a separate probe, provider diagnostic, or raw log reproduce or contradict the agent’s observation? | At least one independent result supports the fault. |
| Uncertainty disclosure | Did the agent list inaccessible sources, untested assumptions, and alternatives it ruled out? | Open questions are visible instead of hidden behind a confidence score. |
| Risk and reversibility | What changes would the recommendation make, who approves them, and how is rollback performed? | The change is bounded, approved, and reversible. |
| Scope and version | Does the diagnostic support this resource type, and is any feature still preview? | Unsupported or preview results are labeled before they influence production. |
Mitigate only after a fault is supported
Choose the smallest change that addresses the first confirmed fault. Before execution, capture the current route, policy, or endpoint state and write the rollback action in the same change record. The responsible human must approve the change, even when the agent proposes it.
- Route fault: confirm the intended next hop and both-way reachability, then change only the affected route or gateway association.
- Policy fault: identify the exact denied tuple (source, destination, protocol, and port), use the narrowest temporary rule, and set an expiry or follow-up owner.
- VPN or Direct Connect fault: verify tunnel or circuit evidence before resetting or rerouting; record the provider and device state first.
- Endpoint fault: involve the service owner when the process is not listening or is unhealthy; do not weaken network policy to mask an application problem.
After the change, rerun the same source-to-destination test and check user-facing health. A successful probe validates recovery for that flow; it does not automatically prove that the agent’s original explanation was complete.
Keep an audit trail that survives the incident
Use one concise record so another engineer can reconstruct the decision without relying on chat history.
- Original agent diagnosis, timestamp, confidence statement, and proposed action.
- Source, destination, protocol, port, regions, and incident time window.
- Every data source consulted, its query interval, and any inaccessible or missing source.
- Independent test outputs, including hops, latency, failed probes, DNS results, and policy findings.
- Hypotheses confirmed, ruled out, or left open, with the evidence for each.
- Pre-change state, approver, exact change, rollback action, and post-change result.
- What the agent got wrong and whether a permission, integration, telemetry gap, or instruction caused the error.
After service is stable, update runbooks, agent instructions, or telemetry coverage from the documented facts. AWS guidance recommends structured, version-controlled diagnostic procedures, explicit investigation layers, and stopping at the first confirmed fault; adopt those practices where they fit your environment rather than treating vendor guidance as a universal standard.
Quick Recap
Quick decision checklist
- Is the proposed action paused until a human approves it?
- Did the agent identify the exact flow and time window?
- Can you name every source it inspected and every source it missed?
- Was the symptom independently reproduced?
- Were DNS, forward and return routing, tunnel state, ACLs, firewalls, and destination listening state checked as applicable?
- Does at least one independent result support the proposed fault?
- Is the mitigation narrow, reversible, documented, and approved?
- Was the same end-to-end path tested after the change?
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