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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The ADP National Employment Report offers a timely estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector payroll employment, with breakdowns by industry, business size and region. It is a useful labor-market signal, not a complete picture of employment—and it is not a preview or substitute for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. ADP says its report is not intended to forecast the BLS monthly jobs report.
What the ADP Employment Report measures
ADP’s monthly National Employment Report (NER) estimates changes in U.S. private employment using anonymized, aggregated payroll data. ADP says its dataset covers more than 26 million U.S. employees; that is the scale of ADP’s data, not a count of everyone in the U.S. workforce. The report can show whether payroll employment rose or fell during its reference period and how the change was distributed across the industries, establishment sizes and regions it reports.
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The employment figures represent jobs—employee-employer relationships—not necessarily unique people. Someone with more than one job may be counted more than once. ADP’s report page and FAQs explain its scope and purpose.
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How ADP builds its estimate
Unlike a conventional survey, the NER is based on payroll records. ADP describes using aggregated counts associated with ADP Payroll Accounts, which it treats approximately as business establishments. Its technical notes describe matched establishments present in consecutive weekly snapshots, with estimates weighted using employment distributions from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) by industry, state and establishment size. The resulting index is intended to provide a timelier view than the QCEW near-universe count, which is published with a lag.
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The monthly employment reference period is the week that includes the 12th day of the month—not every day in the month. ADP’s related Pay Insights measure uses pay data across the month and has a separate definition. Weekly payment schedules and late client submissions affect when payroll information arrives.
ADP also publishes seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted figures. Its seasonal adjustment uses historical weekly payroll data from 2010 onward and accounts for calendar years with 52 or 53 weeks and shifts in week alignment. When comparing figures, use the same reference period and adjustment convention; an adjusted figure and an unadjusted one are not directly comparable. ADP details these methods in its technical notes and calendar.
How ADP differs from the BLS jobs report
Both reports discuss payroll jobs, but they come from separate statistical programs with different sources and coverage. ADP’s NER estimates private employment from ADP payroll records. The BLS monthly payroll measure covers nonfarm employment, including private and government jobs. Neither number should be treated as a corrected version of the other simply because they differ.
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| Comparison | ADP National Employment Report | BLS monthly payroll report |
|---|---|---|
| Primary source | Aggregated ADP payroll data | Current Employment Statistics employer survey |
| Coverage | U.S. private-sector employment | Nonfarm payroll employment, including private and government jobs |
| Reference period and release | Weekly data; monthly employment reference week includes the 12th | Monthly payroll measure for the week including the 12th, as described in ADP’s technical notes |
| What a job count represents | Jobs, or employee-employer relationships; a person with multiple jobs can be counted more than once | Jobs, or employee-employer relationships; a person with multiple jobs can be counted more than once |
| Role | Independent, timely view of private employment; not intended as a BLS forecast | Official government employment statistics release |
| Revisions | Late-arriving client information can change earlier estimates | Uses a separate statistical program and revision process |
These differences explain why ADP and BLS figures may diverge; they do not establish that one is inherently more accurate. The methods and scope are distinct, and a difference between the estimates alone is not an accuracy ranking.
What the report can tell you—and what it cannot
Useful signals
- Direction and estimated scale: whether private payroll employment increased or decreased in the defined reference period.
- Where change occurred: which reported industries, establishment sizes and regions contributed to the estimate.
- A complementary data point: a timely payroll-based view to consider alongside other employment measures, including the BLS Employment Situation.
Limits to keep in mind
- It is not the whole labor market. The NER excludes government employment and does not measure unemployment, labor-force participation, underemployment, hours worked or household financial well-being.
- It does not explain why employment changed. A monthly total cannot establish the cause of gains or losses or, by itself, determine the health of the economy.
- It cannot predict the next BLS result. ADP explicitly says the NER is not intended to forecast the BLS monthly jobs report. One report’s direction or size does not prove that the next BLS estimate will move the same way.
- It can be revised. ADP’s payroll database updates continuously, and late client information for a prior month may be incorporated into a later estimate.
How to read a monthly ADP headline
- Check the month and source. Treat the headline as ADP’s estimate of private payroll employment, not a BLS result or a count of all U.S. workers.
- Check the reference period and adjustment. The employment snapshot uses the week including the 12th. Confirm whether the figure is seasonally adjusted before comparing it with another number.
- Look beyond the total. Industry and establishment-size breakdowns can reveal whether gains or losses were concentrated rather than broad-based.
- Place it beside other evidence. Use the BLS Employment Situation and other relevant labor-market measures to assess dimensions ADP does not cover; do not infer a forecast from the ADP headline.
- Allow for revision. A later estimate may incorporate payroll information that was not available at the initial release.
A dated example: September 2026
ADP reported 90,000 private jobs added in September 2026. Its release said hiring accelerated for the first time since May, led by education and health care (+55,000) and leisure and hospitality (+22,000); financial activities (-16,000) and professional and business services (-11,000) declined. These are ADP’s month-specific private-sector estimates, not the BLS total nonfarm payroll change. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson described the release as “a strong report” and said job creation had rebounded after a three-month slowdown while pay growth remained solid; that is her assessment accompanying ADP’s release, not a neutral finding or an independent forecast. See the September report and release details.
For historical context, ADP reported 122,000 private jobs added and annual pay growth of 4.4% year over year in May 2026. Those figures describe that release only and should not be read as current conditions or as BLS results. ADP’s May 2026 release provides the dated figures.
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