Lebanon has not reached a new IMF program agreement. In an October 1, 2026 briefing, the Fund said progress toward a possible program requires three things: the Bank Resolution Law entering into force, an appropriate Financial Gap Law consistent with international standards, and a 2027 budget and medium-term fiscal framework consistent with debt sustainability.
What the IMF says Lebanon must advance
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack described these as milestones requiring continued progress, not as completed conditions or an announcement of an agreement. The latest briefing sets out three distinct requirements:
- Bank Resolution Law: It must enter into force.
- Financial Gap Law: Lebanon needs an appropriate law consistent with international standards.
- Fiscal plan: The 2027 budget and medium-term fiscal framework must be consistent with debt sustainability.
The IMF did not announce a financing amount for a prospective arrangement in the briefing. Read the October 1 IMF briefing transcript.
Where the two laws stand
Bank Resolution Law: approved, but not yet confirmed in force
Parliament approved amendments to the Bank Resolution Law on August 12, 2026. The IMF described the law passed by Parliament as consistent with international standards, but said the president had referred it to the Constitutional Council. The Fund said it would assess any changes resulting from that review against international standards and advise the authorities. The October briefing does not say that the review has concluded or that the law has entered into force.
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Financial Gap Law: still a required milestone
The IMF called for an appropriate Financial Gap Law consistent with international standards. The October briefing does not report that such a law has been completed. Its wording makes both the law’s appropriateness and its consistency with international standards relevant; a proposal or passage alone would not establish that the stated milestone has been met.
What the fiscal framework needs to address
An IMF mission led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo visited Beirut from September 15 to 18, 2026. It welcomed work on a medium-term fiscal framework but said more was needed to prioritize and sequence measures and to integrate capital and social spending. The mission said a credible framework could anchor annual budgets, restore fiscal sustainability, and create room for reconstruction and social protection. Read the IMF’s September 18 end-of-mission statement.
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The mission’s recommendations included:
- Enacting the proposed increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate to 12 percent.
- Recording all foreign-financed spending comprehensively in the 2027 budget.
- Prioritizing support for internally displaced people while making room for capital spending.
- Avoiding further ad hoc salary and pension adjustments without compensating revenue measures. The IMF said such adjustments should be considered only within a comprehensive fiscal framework.
The proposed 12 percent VAT is a staff recommendation, not a change that the September statement says has already been enacted. The October briefing’s program milestone is the broader requirement that the 2027 budget and medium-term framework be consistent with debt sustainability.
Why the reforms matter amid economic strain
The World Bank projected that Lebanon’s economy would contract by 6.4 percent in 2026, citing renewed conflict that reversed the fragile stabilization and recovery momentum recorded in 2025. This is a projection published on August 21, 2026, not a final measured result. Read the World Bank’s August 21 release.
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The fiscal challenge is not only how to raise revenue. The September IMF mission also emphasized how spending is prioritized and recorded, including social support, reconstruction-related capital needs, and foreign-financed spending. Earlier, in February 2026, the Fund said Lebanon’s medium-term framework was intended to support bank restructuring, sovereign debt restructuring, and expanded social and capital spending; it also emphasized revenue mobilization and tax policy, including a more modern and effective income tax law. Read the February IMF staff statement.
The IMF’s 2026 governance diagnostic examines fiscal governance, financial-sector oversight, central-bank governance, rule of law, and anti-money-laundering, and recommends a sequenced, country-tailored reform agenda. That wider diagnostic provides institutional context; the October briefing does not present every area in it as an additional current program condition. Read the IMF governance diagnostic.
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What to watch next
The clearest way to track whether Lebanon is moving toward the program described by the IMF is to distinguish legal status from policy quality and fiscal credibility:
- Legal status: Has the Constitutional Council completed its review, and has the Bank Resolution Law entered into force?
- Standards: What is the final content and status of the Financial Gap Law, and does the IMF consider it consistent with international standards?
- Fiscal credibility: Do the 2027 budget and medium-term framework align with debt sustainability while setting out revenue measures and the treatment of social and capital spending?
The October 1 briefing does not settle the Constitutional Council’s decision, the final status or content of the Financial Gap Law, or whether the three milestones will lead to an agreement. It describes a path toward a possible program, not a completed deal.
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