When a major shipping route is disrupted, oil prices can rise if cargoes are blocked or delayed, while rerouting can make the remaining supply more expensive to deliver. Higher fuel and transport costs may then feed into consumer prices, but the effect depends on the route, disruption length, available alternatives and the economy absorbing the shock. There is no fixed price or inflation increase that follows every disruption.
How a shipping disruption can affect oil prices
There are two related but distinct channels: less readily available oil and costlier transportation. A chokepoint closure can delay or block shipments, making buyers worry about a shortage. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says disruptions to trade flows increase shortage risk and can cause petroleum-product price spikes (EIA petroleum trade explainer).
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In other cases, oil is not lost; it takes a longer route. That can raise freight, fuel and insurance costs and keep ships occupied for longer. The added cost and the market’s expectation of future scarcity can affect prices even while cargoes continue to reach buyers. Their impact varies by oil type, route and cargo.
Why routes differ in their exposure
Shipping chokepoints do not carry equal volumes, and the statistics use different dates and denominators. EIA reported that Bab el-Mandeb handled 12% of seaborne oil trade in the first half of 2023. By contrast, average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023—about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, according to EIA’s October 2024 analysis. These figures describe different routes and measures; they should not be compared as if they were the same statistic (EIA on Red Sea routes; EIA on tanker flows).
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Trade volumes can also change as shippers adapt. Vortexa data cited by EIA put average Bab el-Mandeb oil flows at 4.0 million barrels per day in 2024 through August, compared with 8.7 million barrels per day for full-year 2023. Because those periods differ, the figures indicate a change in flows but are not a like-for-like annual comparison (EIA, October 11, 2024).
What rerouting adds to the cost
A longer voyage can mean more fuel burned, a longer wait before a ship is available for another cargo and higher freight or insurance costs. In a February 2024 example, EIA estimated that a typical Persian Gulf-to-Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp petroleum voyage took 19 days via Suez and nearly 35 days via the Cape of Good Hope. Those are route-specific voyage estimates, not a general measure for every ship or destination (EIA route analysis).
A separate EIA analysis in June 2024 said an Arabian Sea-to-Europe trip via the Cape was about 15 days longer than via Bab el-Mandeb and Suez. That comparison uses different endpoints from the Persian Gulf-to-ARA example and should not be combined with it (EIA, June 2024).
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11For scale, EIA estimated that a very large gas carrier using high-sulfur bunker fuel at average 2023 prices incurred fuel costs of about $30,000–$35,000 per day. That dated, vessel-specific example illustrates why extra sailing time can be expensive; it is not an oil-price surcharge that applies to all cargoes (EIA, February 1, 2024).
How higher oil and freight costs reach inflation
Crude oil can affect consumer prices through petrol, diesel, heating fuel and other energy costs. Transport and freight costs can also be reflected in the prices of goods that must be shipped. But the pass-through is neither immediate nor one-for-one: it depends on how long costs remain elevated, how much a product relies on shipping and energy, and whether firms absorb or pass on the extra expense. The IMF’s analyses of the Red Sea disruption and the 2026 Middle East conflict describe these cost channels and the role of persistence and exposure (IMF, March 2024; IMF, March 2026).
One UNCTAD estimate illustrates why inflation figures need their assumptions attached. In June 2024, it estimated that global consumer prices could be 0.6% higher by late 2025 if the container freight-rate increases observed between October 2023 and June 2024 continued through the end of 2025. This was a conditional scenario—not a measurement of the inflation caused by shipping disruption alone (UNCTAD, June 2024).
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An IMF working paper published in February 2026 reported that, in the setting it analyzed, a 100-hour delay was associated with roughly a 0.5-percentage-point increase at the five-month inflation peak. The authors’ finding concerns the delays and conditions in that study; it is not a universal forecast for every route or economy (IMF Working Paper 26/26).
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Who is most exposed—and what can limit the effect
Import-dependent economies and households that spend a larger share of their budgets on fuel or food can feel a shock more strongly. The IMF’s March 2026 analysis identifies energy importers and countries with limited buffers as particularly exposed (IMF, March 2026).
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- Route and cargo: How much oil or refined fuel normally crosses the route, and whether shipments are blocked, delayed or diverted.
- Alternatives: Whether inventories, spare production, other suppliers or viable routes can replace affected cargoes quickly.
- Duration: A brief delay may be absorbed more easily than a prolonged disruption that keeps ships and supplies constrained.
- Local dependence: The importing region’s reliance on the affected supply and its capacity to absorb higher energy and transport costs.
- Market adjustment: Trade patterns can shift over time, easing some price pressure even when routes remain longer or less convenient. EIA’s account of European diesel buyers replacing Russian supply with more distant cargoes after sanctions shows how rerouting can tighten regional markets and spill over to U.S. prices through increased exports; EIA says those effects subsided as trade routes adjusted. This was a sanctions-related trade change, not a shipping-route closure (EIA petroleum trade explainer).
What recent price movements do—and do not—show
In a July 15, 2026 report, EIA said Brent front-month futures ranged from $72 to $118 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 amid continuing Hormuz-related flow disruption. That was an observed range during a specific episode, not a rule that a route disruption will produce the same increase elsewhere or in the future (EIA, July 15, 2026).
In the IMF’s March 2024 account, the Suez Canal carried about 15% of global maritime trade and the Panama Canal about 5%; those shares cover maritime trade overall, not oil alone. The IMF also reported that Suez Canal trade volume fell 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, Cape of Good Hope transits rose 74% above the prior-year level, and diversions added an average of 10 days or more to delivery times. These measures show the scale of disruption and rerouting in that period, not a direct estimate of oil-price or inflation increases (IMF, March 7, 2024).
The World Bank’s April 2026 commodity outlook discussed the shock and projected higher annual energy prices under assumptions that acute disruption would ease and shipping would gradually recover. That forecast was conditional on those assumptions, not a timeless estimate of what a shipping disruption does to prices (World Bank, April 2026).
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