Food insecurity in East Africa is driven by overlapping shocks and long-term pressures, not by drought or conflict alone. Drought and erratic rain can reduce harvests, pasture, water and livestock income; conflict can disrupt farming, markets, movement and aid. High prices, displacement, disease and constrained health and humanitarian services can then make food harder to obtain or leave people less able to withstand the next shock. The mix and severity vary by country, season and household.
What the regional figures show—and what they do not
Regional totals depend on the geography, time period and measure used. “Eastern Africa,” “East Africa” and the “Greater Horn of Africa” are not interchangeable reporting areas, and the estimates below should not be added together or read as a single trend.
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| Estimate | Geography and period | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Nearly 62 million people | Eastern Africa, 2024 | People facing acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 or worse, according to WFP. WFP identified conflict, extreme weather, socioeconomic shocks and disease outbreaks among the contributing factors. WFP, 2024 |
| More than 20 million people | The region, by November 2024 | People displaced, according to the same WFP publication; this is a displacement figure, not an IPC food-insecurity total. WFP, 2024 |
| More than 37.8 million people | WHO’s six-country Greater Horn emergency response, April–June 2026 | People experiencing or projected to experience acute food insecurity. WHO cautioned that the burden could be higher because Ethiopia did not have a comparable national IPC Phase 3+ estimate in the report. WHO, 7 July 2026 |
| 6 million people, including close to 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) | Somalia, projected for April–June 2026 | People projected to face IPC Phase 3 or worse, and the subset projected in Phase 4. These are Somalia-specific projections, not a regional count. FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP, 15 May 2026 |
| 19.5 million people | Sudan, through May 2026 | People facing IPC Phase 3 or worse, per the June 2026 hotspot update. The report also described famine risk in 14 areas through September 2026; a risk projection is not a confirmed famine classification. FAO and WFP, June 2026 |
| 7.8 million people | South Sudan, projected for April–July 2026 | People projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse. The same update identified four counties at risk of famine through July; that is distinct from a confirmed famine classification. FAO and WFP, June 2026 |
IPC Phase 3+ figures describe acute food insecurity at or above that classification threshold; they should not be confused with a famine declaration or with chronic vulnerability. Each estimate above is tied to its stated geography and period, so it cannot establish how many people are hungry across East Africa today.
How does drought affect food security?
When rain is poor or arrives unpredictably, rain-fed farmers may harvest less or lose a crop. Pastoral households can face a different but related chain: pasture and water become scarce, livestock weaken or die, and families lose milk, animals to sell, or income from livestock products. Lower production can mean less food at home and less income to buy it. Households may use up stored food and other coping resources before the next harvest.
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These effects can accumulate over several seasons. FAO’s Somalia country brief attributes high food insecurity partly to consecutive poor rainy seasons affecting crops and livestock. WFP reported that erratic rains in October–December 2024 were followed by low crop yields and rapidly depleted pasture and water sources. FAO GIEWS Somalia brief; WFP, 4 March 2025
Drought is not the only climate hazard. Floods can destroy crops, force people from their homes and interrupt access to markets or services; Somalia’s 2026 outlook also flagged elevated flood risk in riverine and low-lying areas. FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP, 15 May 2026
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How does conflict disrupt access to food?
Conflict affects food security through production as well as access. Insecurity can interrupt planting and harvests, damage livelihoods, constrain trade and movement, and force families to leave farmland or livestock behind. Displaced people may arrive in places where jobs, land, services and other resources are already limited. Traders can face disrupted routes or markets, while insecurity and restricted movement can make health care and humanitarian assistance harder to reach.
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The scale of conflict’s role varies across places and crises. FAO and WFP’s June 2026 early-warning update identified conflict and violence as the primary hunger driver in 14 of the 16 global hotspots it covered. That finding applies to those hotspots worldwide, not to East Africa alone, and does not quantify conflict’s share of hunger in the region. FAO and WFP, June 2026
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Why drought and conflict can compound one another
The two drivers have distinct mechanisms, but their effects can overlap. A drought may reduce harvests, livestock assets and household income just as insecurity limits travel to markets, disrupts trade or makes aid inaccessible. Families then have fewer resources to absorb a price rise or another failed season. Conflict can also displace people into areas already coping with climate stress, placing added pressure on livelihoods and services.
Not every household follows the same path. A rain-fed farming family may lose crops; a pastoral family may lose access to pasture and water; a displaced household may have neither land nor livestock and depend more heavily on markets or assistance. Their exposure also depends on purchasing power, access to services and whether aid can reach them.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Prices, health and assistance shape whether food is reachable
Food can be present in a market and still be out of reach. In Somalia, FAO’s country brief links fuel-related transport costs and higher cereal prices with reduced purchasing power. A joint agency release in May 2026 reported food-price increases of up to 20 percent linked to fuel costs and maritime supply-chain disruption; that figure is tied to the Somalia outlook and should not be generalized to the region. FAO GIEWS Somalia brief; FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP, 15 May 2026
Disease and limited health services can increase nutritional vulnerability, while food insecurity itself can make it harder for households to protect health. The WHO’s 2026 Greater Horn situation report identifies funding shortfalls, insecurity, restricted humanitarian access, overstretched health systems and supply-chain disruptions as constraints on the response. These constraints matter because assistance can reduce immediate need; hunger is not an inevitable outcome of drought or conflict. WHO, 7 July 2026
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Can drought or conflict be assigned a single share of the hunger crisis?
The cited estimates establish acute food-insecurity levels for particular places and periods, but they do not provide a comparable East Africa-wide percentage attributing hunger separately to drought and conflict. Their contribution changes by country, season and population, and economic, health and access pressures can intensify either shock. The most accurate explanation is therefore about pathways and interaction, rather than a single regional percentage.
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