The Tool Desk
Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Antarctic ice-sheet projections estimate how much Antarctica may contribute to global mean sea-level rise under specified climate scenarios. They do not, by themselves, forecast how much relative sea level will change at a particular coast. The local effect depends on the ice sheet’s gravitational and solid-Earth “fingerprint,” as well as other regional processes and movement of the land.
What the Antarctic projections actually measure
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (2021) gives likely ranges for Antarctica’s contribution to global mean sea-level rise by 2100. The figures vary by emissions scenario:
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| Scenario | Antarctic contribution by 2100 | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | 0.03–0.27 m (3–27 cm) | Likely Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to global mean sea-level rise |
| SSP2-4.5 | 0.03–0.29 m (3–29 cm) | Likely Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to global mean sea-level rise |
| SSP5-8.5 | 0.03–0.34 m (3–34 cm) | Likely Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to global mean sea-level rise |
These are assessed ranges for a component of global average change, not three estimates for a particular town or shoreline. The scenario assumptions and uncertainty in Antarctica’s physical response both matter; the upper end is not a forecast of the most likely result. IPCC, AR6 Working Group I, Chapter 9 (2021)
Why the effect varies from coast to coast
A large ice sheet’s mass attracts nearby ocean water. When Antarctica loses ice, its gravitational pull weakens, and the ocean’s distribution changes. The solid Earth also deforms as the ice load changes; Earth’s rotation and deformation contribute to the resulting spatial pattern. Together, these effects are called a sea-level fingerprint.
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As a result, sea level can fall close to a melting ice source, while some distant places experience a greater-than-average rise from that source. NASA cites California and Florida as illustrative examples where the Antarctic-melt effect can be up to 52% greater than its average effect around the world. That is a regional example, not a multiplier that applies to every coast or a forecast for either state. NASA Science, “Evidence of sea level ‘fingerprints’” (2016); NASA/JPL, “The Fingerprints of Sea Level Rise”
Global mean contribution is not local relative sea level
Global mean sea-level contribution describes the average ocean response attributable to a source such as Antarctic ice loss. Local relative sea level is the sea surface’s height relative to the land at a specific place. It reflects the fingerprint, but also local and regional ocean and atmospheric effects, other sources of land ice, and vertical land motion.
That distinction means an Antarctic range cannot be translated directly into centimetres of relative rise for a named city, neighborhood, or parcel. A local estimate needs a place, a reference baseline and time horizon, and a regional projection that combines the relevant contributors. The IPCC’s discussion of sea-level change describes the broader set of processes involved. IPCC, AR5 Working Group I, Chapter 13 (2013)
What the figures can—and cannot—answer
They can
- Compare assessed Antarctic contributions under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 by the stated 2100 horizon.
- Show that Antarctica is one contributor to global mean sea-level rise and that its future response is uncertain.
- Motivate regional analysis that accounts for gravitational and solid-Earth fingerprints.
They cannot, on their own
- Give the relative sea-level rise in centimetres at a specific coastal location.
- Provide a complete local projection combining Antarctica with Greenland, glaciers, ocean dynamics, atmospheric effects, and vertical land motion.
- Specify a local flood probability, inundation depth, or date when a threshold will be crossed.
Flood risk requires a separate assessment of local exposure and the event in question; a sea-level projection alone does not establish how likely or deep a particular flood will be.
Historical ice loss is context, not a local forecast
The IPCC assessed that Antarctica lost 2,670 Gt of ice mass from 1992 to 2020, equivalent to 7.4 mm of global mean sea-level rise. The assessed range was 1,800–3,540 Gt, equivalent to 5.0–9.8 mm. These are estimates for an observed historical period, not projections for the future or measurements of local relative sea-level change. IPCC, AR6 Working Group I, Chapter 2 (2021)
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A location-specific tool can help illustrate how sea level may respond to ice loss, but check what it includes before treating its output as a complete coastal projection. NASA’s VESL page describes a simulation of Antarctic mass loss and solid-Earth feedback; NASA cautions that the simulation is not fully representative of all processes affecting sea-level rise. NASA/JPL VESL, “Slowdown in Antarctic Mass Loss from Solid Earth and Sea-Level Feedbacks Simulation”
Quick Recap
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- Confirm the location, reference baseline, and projection horizon.
- Check whether the result is an Antarctic fingerprint or total local relative sea level.
- See whether it incorporates other ice sources, regional ocean and atmospheric effects, and vertical land motion.
- Read how the tool presents scenarios and uncertainty before comparing results.
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