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Warren Buffett was reported advising most people to own an S&P 500 index fund. The “never lost money” claim has a crucial limit: it describes historical returns over rolling 20-year periods, not a guarantee against losses. Berkshire Hathaway’s own record of Buffett’s index-fund wager shows the fund lost 37.0% in 2008.
What Buffett reportedly recommended
At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2020 virtual annual meeting, Buffett was quoted advising most people to own an S&P 500 index fund. A contemporary report attributed this statement to him: “In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 Index Fund… You’re dealing with something fundamentally advantageous, in my view, in owning stocks. I will bet on America the rest of my life.” (The Motley Fool, 2020)
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That is advice about a broad fund category, not a named ticker. The quoted remarks did not specify VOO, SPY, or another particular fund. The available evidence establishes this reported 2020 advice; it does not substantiate the broader claim that this was Buffett’s only investment recommendation in more than 60 years.
What “never lost money” means in the historical data
A 2026 article reports that an analysis attributed to Crestmont Research examined 107 rolling 20-year periods for the S&P 500. Every period in that dataset had a positive average annual total return, with dividends included. (The Motley Fool, 2026)
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This is a backward-looking result for a specific index, measure, and holding period. It does not establish that every investor who buys an S&P 500 fund will earn a profit: an investor may sell before 20 years, and a fund’s value can fall during the period. Nor does a record of past rolling returns predict what future 20-year periods will deliver.
The catch: substantial losses can happen along the way
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2016 shareholder letter includes the S&P index fund’s 2008 return in the table for Buffett’s wager: -37.0%. That one-year decline makes the distinction clear: a positive historical 20-year result does not mean a fund avoids sharp losses in individual years. (Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2017)
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What Buffett’s wager does—and does not—show
Buffett’s ten-year wager pitted a low-cost Vanguard S&P index fund against five hedge-fund funds-of-funds. Berkshire’s 2017 shareholder letter discusses the high fees and active management involved in the comparison. It supports Buffett’s broader case for low-cost index investing over expensive active alternatives in that contest; it does not prove that an S&P 500 fund is right for every person or financial goal. (Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2018)
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VOO and SPY are examples, not Buffett’s named picks
The 2026 article separately reports expense ratios of 0.03% for VOO and 0.0945% gross for SPY. Those are figures reported by that article, not current verified fund disclosures, and neither ticker appears in the quoted 2020 recommendation. Expense ratios can change, so check each issuer’s current fund materials before comparing costs. A fee comparison alone also does not establish differences in tracking, tax effects, trading costs, account access, or suitability.
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