Climate change is projected to make tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi stronger by late this century under a high-emissions scenario, but the total number of storms could rise, fall or show little net change. El Niño currently tends to bring stronger and more frequent storms near the islands than La Niña; in late-century simulations, that contrast becomes less pronounced, especially for wind hazard.
The result is a shift in what “hurricane risk” means for Hawaiʻi. A storm does not have to make a conventional landfall to generate destructive winds, extreme rain, flooding, landslides, high surf and failures that spread through roads, power, communications and other infrastructure.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
What the University of Hawaiʻi study found
A University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa team used the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard model to create thousands of synthetic storms from atmospheric and oceanic conditions simulated by seven global climate models. The researchers tracked storms that passed within 300 nautical miles of Hawaiʻi and compared historical conditions with mid-century and late-century climates.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
The late-century experiment represents substantial warming on a high-emissions pathway, not an inevitable forecast of the world’s future emissions. Its clearest signal is a shift toward higher-intensity tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi. The direction of change in the number of storms remains uncertain.
#1 Best Overall
- Comprehensive Hurricane Kit: This pre-packed hurricane kit includes all the essential hurricane preparedness items for home safety, such as a hurricane lantern, hurricane food, and a hurricane radio weather radio, ensuring you are fully prepared for any emergency.
- Waterproof and Durable Bag: Conveniently packed in a waterproof bag, this hurricane emergency kit is designed to protect your hurricane supplies for home from water damage, ensuring that all your essential hurricane preparedness items remain dry and functional.
- Designed for Two People: Our hurricane kit emergency for home is thoughtfully designed to cater to the needs of two people, including enough hurricane preparedness items food, water and hurricane lights for indoor use, providing peace of mind for you and your loved ones.
- Essential Hurricane Gear: This kit includes a variety of essential hurricane items such as a led hurricane camping lantern, hurricane phone charger, and emergency hurricane supplies to ensure that you have all the necessary tools for effective hurricane preparedness.
- Emergency Communication Tools: Stay informed with the included hurricane radio weather radio, an indispensable part of your hurricane supplies. This radio ensures that you receive critical updates and alerts, making it a vital component of your hurricane emergency kit.
Lead author Nicole Murray described the subject as “a hazard that is rare in Hawai‘i but can have enormous consequences when it occurs.”
How risk differs across the modeled periods
| Risk dimension | Historical climate | Mid-century climate | Late-century climate under substantial warming |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm intensity | Provides the baseline against which the simulations are compared. | Direction is not established in the study summary. | Projects a shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi. |
| Storm frequency | Observed and modeled historical activity. | Direction is uncertain. | Total storm-count change remains uncertain; stronger storms do not automatically mean more storms. |
| Track location | Tracks vary with climate patterns, including ENSO. | Exact shift is not stated in the study summary. | El Niño and La Niña track differences become less distinct in some measures. |
| Wind hazard | El Niño generally produces a higher hazard than La Niña. | Transition period; no single directional result is stated. | El Niño–La Niña differences become less pronounced, particularly for tropical-cyclone wind hazard. |
| Rainfall and flooding | Nearby storms can produce extreme rain, flooding and landslides. | Storm-related impacts remain possible even without landfall. | The study summary does not establish a single future direction for rainfall or flooding; exposure remains a major concern. |
| Landfall | Only one part of total damage. | Near-island passages can still affect communities. | Risk assessments include storms within 300 nautical miles, not only those crossing land. |
| Confidence | Direct observations are limited because major impacts are rare. | Model spread matters. | Results are scenario-dependent, and rare-event probabilities remain difficult to estimate. |
Why El Niño matters near the islands
Historically, El Niño favors stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi than La Niña. The simulations show that this relationship can change as the climate warms rather than simply becoming stronger in every future period.
Historical El Niño pattern
During El Niño, storm tracks shift southwest of the islands relative to La Niña. Despite that displacement, the modeled and historical pattern is associated with greater tropical-cyclone activity and higher wind hazard near Hawaiʻi than during La Niña.
Late-century interaction
In the late-century simulations, the El Niño–La Niña differences become less pronounced. The weakening is especially clear for wind hazard, meaning that a La Niña year could become less distinct from an El Niño year in the relative hazard it presents. This does not mean ENSO stops mattering or that every year has the same risk; it means ENSO is a less reliable separator of high- and low-hazard conditions in the warmer simulations.
Rank #2
- [Preparedness for the Unknown]: While no one can predict when or how severe a disaster or unexpected event will be, our 262pcs survival kit helps your family stay prepared during the critical first 72 hours. Designed for family use, it was developed in collaboration with survival experts, outdoor professionals, special forces operators, and mountain guides. Whether you're preparing for earthquakes, tornadoes, wildfires, or hurricanes, our survival kit provides peace of mind.
- [Comprehensive Emergency Supply Kit]: The included emergency supplies are stored in a bright red pouch, containing tweezers, scissors and pins, non-woven pad, triangular cotton cloth, cotton swabs, cotton balls, a generous supply of adhesive strips etc., meeting your general emergency and outdoor needs. It also includes an emergency information card to record your basic information, helping others quickly access important information when needed.
- [Safety Companion for Journey]: Our emergency kit includes many survival gear and supplies to ensure access to food, water, warmth, and light in a crisis. The fishing kit and multi-usage spoon help you catch and prepare food, while the collapsible water container bag helps store water. Fire starter and stick make it easy to build a fire. A flashlight, camping lamp, and glow sticks provide up to 72 hours of lighting, crucial for signaling for help and safe navigation.
- [Essential Survival Gear]: Additionally, this survival kit includes a detachable multifunctional axe with hammer and a 2-in-1 shovel with pick, made of sturdy carbon steel. Combined with wire saw, emergency tent and blanket, rope, and compass, you can quickly set up an emergency shelter while helping retain warmth. Unlike other mini axes, our axe and shovel are 17 inches long, providing effective protection in the wild against animals or in other emergencies.
- [Convenient Packaging]: The survival gear and supplies are packed in a crossbody bag, making it easy to carry and access in emergencies. The bag features multiple compartments and molle compatible straps and D-rings, allowing you to attach extra pouches or survival tools. The crossbody strap is also detachable, making it easy to connect to a tactical survival backpack using carabiners or the molle system.
A nearby storm can be a damaging storm
Landfall is an overly narrow test for Hawaiian hurricane risk. A cyclone passing offshore can push damaging winds across exposed islands, draw moisture into intense rainbands and generate high surf. Heavy rain can trigger flash flooding and landslides, while wind, waves and saturated ground can damage utilities, roads, ports and communications at the same time.
Those effects can cascade. A road closure can delay emergency response; a power outage can disable water pumps or communications; flooding can isolate communities even when the storm’s center remains at sea. Murray noted that “storms do not need to make a conventional landfall to disrupt communities, damage infrastructure and create dangerous flooding and wind impacts.”
What counts as an El Niño event
NOAA defines El Niño using both ocean and atmosphere conditions, not a single warm reading. On average it occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months.
- Sea-surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region must reach at least 0.5°C above normal.
- That threshold must persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
- The atmosphere must also show the expected coupling to the warmer tropical Pacific.
Because ENSO develops over months, it is useful for seasonal risk context but cannot determine the path or intensity of an individual hurricane. Official forecasts and warnings remain necessary during an active threat.
Rank #3
- 72 HOUR EMERGENCY KIT FOR 2 PEOPLE WITH FOOD AND WATER: Includes 2 emergency food bars totaling 4800 calories and 12 sealed drinking water pouches to support hydration and energy during disasters. Designed for emergency preparedness, survival kits, earthquake kits, and evacuation planning.
- COMPLETE DISASTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH SHELTER AND WARMTH: Equipped with 2 emergency ponchos and 2 survival blankets to help protect against rain, wind, and cold conditions. Critical gear for outdoor emergencies, power outages, and shelter in place situations.
- FIRST AID KIT AND SAFETY PROTECTION SUPPLIES: Features a 33 piece first aid kit, dust masks, and nitrile gloves to support basic medical care and protection from debris and airborne particles. Essential for emergency response, injury care, and disaster safety.
- EMERGENCY LIGHTING AND SIGNALING TOOLS INCLUDED: Comes with 2 long lasting 12 hour lightsticks and a safety whistle for visibility and communication in low light or rescue situations. Ideal for blackout emergencies, nighttime evacuation, and search scenarios.
- COMPACT BACKPACK FOR GRAB AND GO EVACUATION: Lightweight emergency backpack keeps all survival supplies organized and ready for fast response. Perfect for home emergency kits, car emergency kits, office preparedness, and bug out bags.
How this study fits earlier evidence
An archived NOAA summary of a 2015 study by Murakami and colleagues recorded three hurricanes approaching the Hawaiian Islands in 2014, the third-largest number since 1949. That work identified both warming-related changes in storm tracks and ENSO variability as relevant influences.
The newer University of Hawaiʻi analysis extends the question with synthetic storms and multiple climate models. Its value is in testing rare but consequential events that the short observational record cannot sample well. Its limitation is equally important: model results vary, and the future experiment describes one high-emissions warming pathway rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What residents and planners should take from the projections
Plan for intensity, not just counts
A stable or uncertain storm count can coexist with more damaging individual cyclones. Emergency plans, building decisions and infrastructure upgrades should therefore test stronger-wind scenarios even when projections do not show a clear increase in the number of storms.
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
Use distance from the center as a risk measure
Preparedness thresholds should include storms forecast to pass near the islands, not only systems predicted to cross land. Wind, rain, surf and landslide hazards can peak in different places and at different times.
Rank #4
- 【NOAA Weather Alert Radio Keeps You Prepared Ahead】Our NOAA Weather Radio is certified by National Weather Service. Choose WB band and one of the 7 preset weather band to tune into your local weather station. When the National Weather Service issues a severe weather alert, the radio will make a loud SOS alarm that lasts for 9 secs, meanwhile, the red light flashes.You will never miss it even at sleep. Great 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗸𝗶𝘁 for tornadoes, tsunamis, Wildfire, hurricane & snowstorm.
- 【AM FM Shortwave Radio with Earphone Jack-Best Listening Experience】Easy to tune into your favorite broadcast, AM Radio(520-1710 Khz); FM Band(88-108MHz); SW Radio(7-19.00 MHZ). The crank radio has a comprehensive coverage of entertainment, sports, news or overseas broadcast like The BBC/Moscow/Beijing. The telescopic antenna makes it a portable radio with best reception. Big volume knob is designed for easy volume adjustment and the 3.5mm headphone jack for your enjoying radio shows privately.
- 【5 Power Sources-Long Runtime】This 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗼 is ready and save your life in emergency. Built-in 5000 rechargeable battery, the 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗼 is easily recharged by solar/hand crank/power plug( 5V/2A, not included)and USB cord(included). Besides, it is also equipped with backup battery compartment(3pcs*AAA batteries, not included). No more power failure concerns in any situation. The full charged solar radio will last up to 13 hours only playing FM radio.
- 【All-in-One Portable Radio with LED Flashlight/Reading Lamp】Our 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗼 is also designed for outdoor survival- provides 2 light sources.The side 3W LED flashlight provides strong and straight light to light up 80 meters away. A very vital survival gear and equipment if you are lost at night. 2.5W Reading Lamp with 2 adjustable brightness- Flipping up the solar panel makes the emergency crank radio a reading lamp with 6 built-in LED bulbs to illuminate 20㎡ room or campsite.
- 【Versatile for Emergency】Built in USB output port, this 𝗯𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗼 can charge more than one cellphone for important calls or texts. Besides, the compact light weight noaa emergency weather radio comes with a compass, hand strap, perfect for outdoor camping, field survival, hiking, trekking and night biking. We care you and provide one-year warranty, just email us with any question.
Treat ENSO as context, not a guarantee
El Niño historically raises the odds of stronger and more frequent nearby cyclones, but the late-century simulations show that the contrast with La Niña may narrow. Seasonal outlooks should be combined with real-time track, intensity, rainfall and surf forecasts.
Account for compound failures
Risk assessments should examine simultaneous impacts on power, transport, water, communications and health services. A storm’s consequences can continue after winds ease because flooding, debris and infrastructure outages interact.
What remains uncertain
- The study does not establish that Hawaiʻi will experience more hurricanes overall.
- It does not provide one guaranteed track or intensity for any future storm.
- Rainfall and flooding impacts are clearly important, but the summary does not give a single late-century direction for those hazards.
- Limited direct observations make the probability of very rare Hawaiian impacts difficult to estimate.
The defensible conclusion is narrower and more useful: substantial warming is expected to tilt the risk toward stronger tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi, while the number of storms and the familiar El Niño-versus-La Niña contrast remain uncertain.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsQuick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
