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A nine-box grid can help structure a talent review, but it cannot prove who will succeed in a future role. Use it as a prompt to discuss evidence—not as a verdict—and begin succession planning with the roles and capabilities the organization will need. AI may help organize information and identify patterns; accountable people must assess, challenge, and explain the decisions.
What a nine-box grid can—and cannot—tell you
A commonly described nine-box grid maps current performance against estimated potential. The description is secondary guidance, not evidence that a placement predicts future performance. Potential is a judgment, and ratings can be affected by bias or rater drift. A person’s location in a box should therefore be treated as a provisional discussion prompt, not a fact about their future. See the CIPD Guidance excerpt on the nine-box grid.
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There is no universal nine-box standard established by the sources cited here. Organizations need to define what performance and potential mean in their own context, and avoid treating an AI-generated score as a validated forecast of leadership ability.
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Succession planning is about identifying and developing talent for future leadership and other business-critical positions. Before discussing employees, establish which roles matter, how the organization may change, and what capabilities those roles will require. This prevents a general ranking exercise from becoming detached from actual business needs. CIPD’s succession-planning factsheet recommends identifying key roles, considering future needs, assessing potential successors, and tailoring development accordingly.
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Define the decision the review must support: for example, where to build a pipeline for a critical role, what capabilities are missing, or which development experiences could prepare people for plausible future responsibilities. Do not infer readiness for a particular role from a broad potential label alone.
Set criteria and evidence before comparing people
Agree in advance how the organization will assess performance and potential. Explain the criteria, what evidence is relevant, and how the assessment relates to the future roles under consideration. CIPD recommends transparent methods and objective assessment of potential successors; its guidance also cautions against focusing only on current skills when future roles may require different capabilities.
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Use evidence that can be examined and discussed rather than relying solely on a manager’s impression. Depending on the role and context, evidence may include outcomes, demonstrated skills, structured feedback, or assessments. Make clear where evidence is incomplete, and distinguish observed performance from assumptions about an employee’s capacity to grow.
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Bring relevant managers and people professionals together to test whether criteria have been applied consistently. CIPD describes succession committees as a way to review and challenge decisions; SHRM describes talent councils as forums for enterprise-wide talent and succession decisions. A cross-functional discussion can expose inconsistent standards or uneven access to assignments that make people visible.
- What specific evidence supports this placement, and does it relate to the future role?
- Have the same standards been applied to employees with similar responsibilities?
- Could differences in visibility, opportunity, or access to development be shaping the assessment?
- What evidence or changed circumstances would lead reviewers to revise their view?
Record the rationale and uncertainties, not just the box or label. Transparency about the methods used and roles considered suitable makes the process easier to scrutinize and explain.
Use AI for bounded support, with people accountable
AI may assist with tasks such as summarizing structured feedback, surfacing skills patterns, identifying workforce trends, or recommending development resources. SHRM also describes workforce analytics, learning recommendations, and workforce planning as potential applications. These are support roles: the sources cited here do not establish that a particular AI system can validly predict an individual’s leadership potential.
As SHRM’s 23 September 2026 article puts it, “data should inform decisions, not make decisions.” Keep human reviewers responsible for interpreting evidence, questioning recommendations, and making the actual talent and succession decisions. Assess AI-supported decisions for fairness, consistency, and adverse impact rather than assuming that automation makes them objective.
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Explain to employees and reviewers where AI is used, what information is analyzed, how recommendations are generated, and when human review occurs. Protect employee data with appropriate access safeguards. The EEOC and DOJ guidance on disability discrimination warns that employment tools may disadvantage people with disabilities and supports providing an accommodation process when such tools are used. That is U.S. federal guidance; organizations should also check applicable requirements in their own jurisdictions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Turn review outcomes into development and succession plans
A review is useful only if it informs action. For roles the organization has identified as critical, connect development to capabilities the role will actually require. CIPD notes that relevant work experience can be part of succession planning and that development may include coaching, mentoring, training, secondments, and networking. Choose experiences that address a person’s needs rather than assigning the same intervention to everyone in a category.
Revisit plans as business strategy, roles, evidence, and people change. A prior grid placement should not become a permanent label or substitute for reassessing the needs of a role and the development someone has received.
Choose a scope and governance model that fits
Organizations can focus development on a smaller high-potential group, take a more inclusive approach that develops all employees while prioritizing particular needs, or blend the two. CIPD describes both focused and inclusive approaches; the choice should fit the organization’s goals and the risk of overlooking people outside a preselected group. The same factsheet discusses talent-management approaches at CIPD’s talent-management factsheet.
Evidence and governance are separate choices. A manager’s judgment alone is less structured than combining it with evidence such as interviews or competency-based assessments. SHRM describes interview-based and AI-enabled assessment services, but those service descriptions are not independent validation of predictive accuracy. Likewise, individual manager decisions differ from committee or talent-council review: cross-functional challenge can improve scrutiny, but it still requires clear criteria and accountable decision-makers. SHRM’s description of talent councils and succession-related services is available on its Talent Intelligence and Diagnostics Solutions page.
The sources cited here do not establish a quantified effectiveness rate for nine-box assessments or AI-supported talent reviews. Treat both as tools within a well-governed process, not as proof that a particular person will—or will not—succeed.
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