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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsThe available survey findings do not support the headline claim that UPI transaction value may fall 10% after the October 15, 2026 merchant discount rate (MDR) rollout. LocalCircles asked consumers how they might respond if a merchant passed an extra fee on to them; its results describe hypothetical intentions, not a forecast of transaction value or measured post-rollout behavior.
What the survey actually found
LocalCircles’ October 2026 survey received more than 67,000 responses from UPI users across 291 districts. The findings it published concern two different hypothetical questions about purchases above ₹2,000. The response counts differ between the questions, so their percentages should be read separately.
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Immediate response to a fee request
For the question, “If a merchant asks you to pay an additional amount/fee for making a UPI payment above INR 2,000, what would you most likely do?”, LocalCircles reported 31,206 responses:
- 27% said they would pay in cash.
- 26% said they would use a credit card.
- 14% said they would use a debit card.
- 4% said they would use a bank transfer, NEFT or IMPS.
- 9% said they would ask for another option without an extra charge.
- 2% said they would avoid or delay the purchase.
- 14% said they would pay the extra amount and continue using UPI.
- 4% were unsure.
These are respondents’ stated reactions to a hypothetical request, not observations of what people did after the policy took effect. LocalCircles’ October 2026 release provides the question and results.
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Payment mode respondents expected to use most often
A separate question asked which payment mode respondents expected to use most often for purchases above ₹2,000 if UPI incurred an additional cost. Among 37,654 responses, LocalCircles reported 26% credit card, 26% cash, 13% debit card, 11% bank transfer/NEFT/IMPS, 20% UPI and 4% unsure. The organisation summarized 76% as expecting to move larger payments away from UPI under that condition.
That 76% is not a prediction that UPI transaction value will fall by 76%, or by 10%. It is a summary of answers about expected payment mode in a specified scenario; it does not quantify the value or number of transactions that would shift. India Today’s October 1 report covers the same LocalCircles findings, so it is not an independent survey confirming them.
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What the October 15 MDR rollout covers
The Indian Express reported that a framework scheduled to begin on October 15, 2026 would charge a 0.4% MDR on eligible person-to-merchant (P2M) UPI transactions above ₹2,000, capped at ₹300 per transaction. It also reported an exemption for merchants receiving up to ₹1 lakh a month through UPI QR codes, and flat fees for certain sector payments. These are reported framework terms; the available reporting does not establish how every category is treated in practice. See The Indian Express report for its account of the scope and exemptions.
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The reported change is not a fee on every UPI transfer: it concerns eligible merchant payments meeting the stated threshold. The MDR is described as a charge on merchants. LocalCircles says the government’s position is that merchants should not pass it on to customers, quoting Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on September 22 as saying “the responsibility does not lie with the customer.” That position does not establish whether every merchant will absorb the charge or whether consumers will encounter additional fees.
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Why the 10% transaction-value claim is not established
Neither the immediate-response question nor the expected-payment-mode question measures UPI transaction value. The survey does not report a 10% forecast, a baseline transaction value, or a calculation linking respondents’ answers to a change in total payments. Nor could the October findings establish actual effects of a rollout that was still scheduled for a future date in the cited reports.
LocalCircles separately reported that 17% of surveyed merchants were willing to bear a 0.4% MDR on UPI payments above ₹2,000, while 41% said they would not bear any MDR and 9% said they did not accept UPI. That September merchant survey had more than 32,000 business responses across 242 districts. It measures reported willingness, not subsequent merchant decisions or transaction outcomes.
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As a result, the evidence supports a narrower takeaway: some surveyed consumers said they might switch payment modes if charged extra, while others expected to keep using UPI. It does not establish that UPI’s transaction value will drop 10% after October 15.
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