Yes—but “quadrupled” understates the latest estimate. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says generation from small-scale or rooftop photovoltaic systems rose from 18,812 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to 92,979 GWh over the decade ending in its October 2026 analysis. That is about 4.94 times the 2014 output, or roughly a fivefold increase.
How much did U.S. small-scale solar generation grow?
EIA’s current national series shows an increase of 74,167 GWh between the starting and ending figures:
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| Measure | 2014 | Latest figure | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. small-scale or rooftop PV generation | 18,812 GWh | 92,979 GWh | About 4.94 times the 2014 level |
The quoted figures come from EIA’s Today in Energy analysis published October 16, 2026. Calling the trend “quadrupled” is a rounded description; the underlying values indicate growth closer to fivefold.
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What EIA means by “small-scale” solar
For this series, small-scale solar means photovoltaic systems with capacity below 1 megawatt (MW). That category includes residential rooftop arrays and other distributed installations, such as systems serving commercial, industrial or institutional sites. It does not mean utility-scale solar farms, which are reported separately.
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Because the threshold is based on system capacity, a large number of modest installations can collectively produce substantial electricity even though none individually approaches the 1-MW limit.
Residential generation shows the expansion clearly
EIA’s residential-sector estimates provide a separate view of the same long-term shift. Estimated residential small-scale PV generation increased from 4,947 thousand megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2014 to 57,547 thousand MWh in 2024, according to a 2025 release containing final 2024 data.
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| Residential estimated small-scale PV generation | Value |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 4,947 thousand MWh |
| 2023 | 49,273 thousand MWh |
| 2024 | 57,547 thousand MWh |
The 2024 residential estimate was 8,274 thousand MWh higher than 2023, an increase of about 16.8% in one year. The residential series is a sector-specific estimate and should not be added mechanically to the national headline without checking the categories and reporting definitions.
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California, Arizona, Texas and Florida lead total small-scale solar generation in EIA’s latest analysis. New York ranks fifth, even though its solar resource is generally less favorable than that of the leading Sun Belt states.
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| State | Position or role in EIA’s analysis | What the comparison shows |
|---|---|---|
| California | Leading state | Large installed distributed capacity combined with strong solar resources |
| Arizona | Leading state | Abundant sunlight supports high output |
| Texas | Leading state | Large market and favorable resource areas contribute to total generation |
| Florida | Leading state | High solar resource and substantial distributed deployment |
| New York | Fifth | Capacity growth, improving technology and state incentives offset less favorable solar conditions |
EIA does not provide state-by-state generation values in the summary used here, so the ranking should not be read as a claim that New York has the same per-panel output as a Sun Belt state. It demonstrates that installed capacity and policy can materially influence total generation alongside sunlight.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Are these numbers directly measured?
Mostly, no. EIA’s Form EIA-861M documentation describes a methodology that combines net-metering and non-net-metering distributed-PV data, then applies formulas and adjustments to estimate capacity and generation for systems below 1 MW. The historical series is backdated to 2014.
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The Electric Power Annual explains that monthly small-scale PV generation is estimated rather than directly collected for most systems. Direct data are available for certain third-party-owned installations, but coverage is not equivalent to a meter reading from every rooftop array.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →- Net-metered systems: EIA uses utility-reported net-metering information as part of the estimation process.
- Non-net-metered systems: Additional distributed-PV data and modeling adjustments fill gaps where utilities do not report generation directly.
- Historical consistency: EIA applies its technical methods to construct a comparable series reaching back to 2014.
Consequently, 92,979 GWh is an official estimate of nationwide production, not a direct aggregation of readings from every small installation. Revisions can occur as reporting and estimation inputs improve.
Why the growth matters for the power system
Distributed PV changes where electricity is produced. More generation occurs at homes and businesses, often near the loads that consume it, reducing the need to move all of that energy from distant power plants. Its output is variable, however: production follows daylight and weather, so utilities must coordinate it with other generation, storage, demand management and grid controls.
The state pattern also shows why solar resources alone do not determine outcomes. Technology improvements can increase energy harvested from a given roof, while incentives and interconnection policies can make more projects financially practical. New York’s fifth-place ranking is an example of those factors working together despite a less intense solar resource than the Southwest.
Quick Recap
How to read the headline accurately
- Use the correct category: the figures concern distributed photovoltaic systems under 1 MW, not every solar plant in the country.
- Use the correct scale: 18,812 to 92,979 GWh is approximately a fivefold increase; “quadrupled” is a rounded shorthand.
- Separate national and residential series: the residential figures are a sector estimate reported in thousand MWh, while the headline is a national small-scale PV total in GWh.
- Remember the method: EIA combines reported data with estimates, so the totals describe modeled national output rather than complete direct meter coverage.
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