U.S. rents are not falling nationally, but the pace of increases is modest and many advertised rentals still come with move-in deals. Zillow’s September 2026 index put typical rent at $1,932, up 2.7% from a year earlier, while the U.S. Census Bureau’s rental vacancy rate was 7.3% in the second quarter and statistically unchanged year over year. Those measures describe different things: asking prices, listing incentives and survey-estimated vacancies.
What the latest national rental data says
The latest figures point to a measured, mixed market—not a nationwide rent decline. Zillow’s September 2026 Market Report, published October 6, reported a typical U.S. rent of $1,932 in its Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), up 2.7% from September 2025 and 0.1% from August 2026. Zillow said the annual increase was its largest since April 2025. ZORI is a commercial index, not an official Census estimate. Zillow’s September 2026 Market Report.
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Separately, the Census Bureau reported a 7.3% rental vacancy rate in Q2 2026. The difference from Q2 2025’s 7.0% was not statistically significant, and the Q2 rate was virtually the same as Q1 2026’s 7.3%. That is best described as statistically unchanged year over year, not proof that the underlying rate was exactly flat. Census Bureau, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Second Quarter 2026.
These numbers should not be combined into a single score for whether renting is “easy.” ZORI tracks asking rents; the vacancy rate is a survey estimate of rental-unit availability. Neither tells every renter what a particular landlord will charge or whether a specific home is available.
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Are rents going down in 2026?
Not according to the latest national asking-rent figure in the available data. Zillow’s ZORI was 2.7% higher year over year in September 2026. Its month-to-month gain was just 0.1%, which suggests a small recent increase, but it does not turn the annual rise into a decline. “Stable” in this context means increases are relatively measured and availability indicators are not showing a significant year-over-year vacancy shift—not that rents are cheaper than last year.
National averages also conceal local and property-type differences. Zillow’s September report shows variation among metro areas, and its June report found single-family rent growth exceeded multifamily growth. A renter’s experience may therefore differ substantially by city, neighborhood, building type and lease timing. Zillow’s June 2026 rent report.
Are landlords offering move-in specials?
Many listings tracked by Zillow were advertising concessions. In September 2026, 39.6% of rental listings on Zillow offered one, compared with 37.4% a year earlier and 39.3% in August. This is a share of Zillow listings, not a survey estimate covering every rental in the country. Zillow’s June report described examples such as a free month, waived fees or free parking; it reported concessions on 39.7% of Zillow listings that month, versus 35.2% a year earlier.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesA concession can lower what a new renter pays overall even when the stated monthly rent is rising. Compare the full lease cost after incentives with the advertised rent before deciding whether a deal is worthwhile. For example, a free month may reduce the average cost over a lease term, but the recurring rent after the promotion ends remains important. Confirm which fees are waived, when any discount applies, and whether the offer is written into the lease. The actual terms vary by listing. Zillow’s June 2026 rent report.
Why can rents rise while more apartments are available?
More available homes can give renters additional choices and strengthen their ability to negotiate, but supply does not immediately or uniformly lower every asking rent. New construction is concentrated in particular markets and property types; local demand, location and the mix of available homes also matter. Zillow’s June report linked the prevalence of choices and concessions to significant new rental inventory and a years-long building boom. It also noted that apartment completions fell in Q2 as net absorption increased, suggesting that the flow of new apartments was slowing even as renters took up units.
That is Zillow’s interpretation of apartment-sector conditions, not the same measurement as Census’s vacancy rate for rental units. It also does not establish a single national count of newly added rental homes. Census’s latest completed housing-unit estimates, Vintage 2025, cover all housing units through July 1, 2025—not rental supply alone—and are revised with each new vintage. Census Bureau, National, State, and County Housing Unit Totals: 2020–2025.
As Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy put it, “Supply is the most direct lever to keep rents in check over the long term.” That is Zillow’s view of the market, not an official statistical conclusion. More construction can improve bargaining conditions over time, but a temporary wave of completions is no guarantee of continued rent relief in every city. Zillow’s June 2026 rent report.
How to use the national numbers when searching locally
- Check current listings in the specific area. National data cannot show the asking rent or availability in a particular neighborhood.
- Compare total lease costs. Put the advertised rent alongside any concession, fees and the rent due after a promotion ends.
- Look at the property type. Rent trends can differ between single-family homes and multifamily apartments.
- Treat vacancy as context, not a price quote. The Census vacancy estimate indicates rental-unit availability across the country, not the rent for a home you are considering.
Zillow offers listings for apartments, single-family homes and rooms for rent, as well as a rent affordability calculator. These can be starting points for a local search, but the national indicators should not substitute for checking the actual lease terms and current listings in your area. Zillow rentals.
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