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Freedom251 › Blog › Federal Reserve

U.S. Fintech Market Research: Build a Defensible Market View

By Freedom251 Team · · 5 min read

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To research the U.S. fintech market, define exactly which products, customers, geography, time period, and measure you mean before collecting figures. Then match each question to evidence that actually covers it: Federal Reserve lender data can inform nonbank lending, payment surveys can describe payment preferences, and commercial reports can offer market-size estimates—but none is a universal count of fintech.

What does “the U.S. fintech market” include?

There is no useful market total until you draw its boundaries. “Fintech” can refer to payments, lending, digital banking, wealth technology, insurance technology, regulatory technology, financial infrastructure, or a defined combination. Sources use different slices, so totals should not be treated as estimates of the same market.

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Before searching for data, write down the decision the research must support—such as evaluating a product segment, understanding customers, screening an investment, choosing a partner, or informing policy. Specify:

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  • Geography: the United States nationally, or particular states and local markets.
  • Customer population: consumers, small businesses, financial institutions, or another defined group.
  • Product boundary: the services and technologies included, and what is excluded.
  • Time period: the observation year or range, distinguishing historical data from current estimates and forecasts.
  • Measure: revenue, transaction value, users, adoption, funding, account counts, or number of institutions.

These measures answer different questions. A survey preference is not revenue; transaction value is not provider income; and funding totals do not measure customer adoption. Keep each measure and its unit explicit.

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How do I research the fintech market in the U.S.?

  1. Set the decision and boundary. Record the intended use, customer group, geography, product scope, period, and measure before looking for a headline market number.
  2. Map sources to questions. Start with public datasets and studies whose population, collection method, and time period are described. Use each source only for the question it can answer.
  3. Read the methods and sample. Check eligibility, who responded, when information was collected, which products or providers were represented, and what the study excluded.
  4. Separate unlike indicators. Keep revenue estimates apart from adoption, transaction values, account counts, funding, and stated preferences. Do not combine them into a single market measure.
  5. Compare definitions before comparing numbers. For commercial estimates, put the included segments, geography, revenue basis, base year, and forecast period beside each figure.
  6. Report uncertainty in the result. Attribute every estimate and state what its evidence covers. If scope or method is not comparable, show the figures separately rather than averaging them or declaring one definitive.

Where can I find reliable fintech market data?

“Reliable” depends on fit: a well-documented source can still be wrong for a question outside its population or measure. These Federal Reserve sources provide useful, distinct evidence bases.

Nonbank lending

The Federal Reserve Board’s Census of Finance Companies and Other Lenders is a recurring census focused on nonbank lenders. The Board says the results inform releases including G.19, G.20, and Financial Accounts (Z.1). It can anchor a question about that lending population; it is not a census or market-size measure for all fintech. The Board describes the census as being conducted every five years since 1955 to obtain current, statistically reliable data on the composition of the industry.

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Payments behavior

Federal Reserve Financial Services’ research index includes consumer and business payment studies. Its 2025 page reports results from a consumer study conducted in 2024: 78% of consumers chose faster payments as a preferred option, and about six in ten said it was important for their financial institution to offer instant payments. These are survey findings about preferences—not revenue figures or proof that respondents used a particular product. Attribute them to Federal Reserve Financial Services and the 2024 study when using them.

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Financial inclusion and access

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s September 2025 review, Financial Inclusion in the United States: Measurement, Determinants, and Recent Developments, synthesizes survey evidence and academic studies. It is useful for mapping questions about access and exclusion, while also identifying unresolved questions about their causes and the effectiveness of interventions.

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Community development financial institutions

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s 2025 Federal Reserve CDFI Survey Key Findings Report received 446 responses, about one-third of certified CDFIs. Among surveyed CDFIs, 71% reported that demand rose over 2024; the report also describes staffing, technology, and capital constraints. Treat these as findings about the surveyed CDFIs, not fintech firms or all lenders.

What is the size of the U.S. fintech market?

Commercial estimates reviewed for this article give materially different figures for 2025. They are vendor estimates, not a settled official statistic, and the available information does not establish sufficiently comparable definitions and methods to reconcile the gap.

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Publisher and listing 2025 estimate Forecast and stated growth How to interpret it
Mordor Intelligence, US Fintech Market Size, Share & Industry Growth 2031; page accessed October 7, 2026 USD 58.01 billion USD 66.82 billion for 2026 and USD 135.42 billion by 2031; stated CAGR 15.18% for 2026–2031 Commercial estimate and forecast; confirm the report’s scope and methodology before comparing.
Persistence Market Research, USA Fintech Market Share & Forecast to 2032; September 2025 listing USD 95.2 billion USD 248.5 billion by 2032; stated CAGR 14.7% for 2025–2032 Commercial estimate and forecast; confirm the report’s scope and methodology before comparing.

The two 2025 figures should not be averaged or presented as competing official measurements. A number is interpretable only alongside its definition, included segments, revenue basis, geography, base year, method, and forecast assumptions. If those details do not align, report a clearly attributed estimate—or explain that published totals vary by scope—instead of claiming a single definitive U.S. fintech market size.

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How should you test whether a fintech finding is representative?

A study’s headline result describes its sampled population under its stated method. It should not automatically be generalized to every customer, provider, or business in the market.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ summary of The Rise of Fintech Lending to Small Businesses: Businesses’ Perspectives on Borrowing warns that businesses using online lenders are not representative of U.S. small and medium-size enterprises. Their experiences may illuminate that channel, but should not be presented as the experience of all U.S. businesses.

For each survey or study, document who could participate, who actually responded, when the data were collected, and which product or provider populations were included. Keep that description close to any statistic drawn from the study.

How do you assess alternative data and credit access?

When researching alternative data in underwriting, market adoption alone does not establish how a practice affects consumers. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Consumer & Community Context — October 2025: Alternative Data: Expanding Access to Credit says that monitoring matters as use develops, including how data affects access to credit and consumer financial health. A credit-market analysis should therefore distinguish the use of a data source from evidence about its outcomes, transparency, fairness, and effects on borrowers.

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How should you report the result?

Make the evidence trail visible enough that a reader can tell what each number means. For every material figure, give its publisher, population or market scope, geography, measurement period, unit, and whether it is observed, estimated, or forecast. For a survey, identify the relevant study year and respondents; for a vendor forecast, identify the forecast horizon and do not imply that it is an official statistic.

Keep evidence streams separate when they answer different questions: a nonbank-lender census, a payment-preference survey, a CDFI survey, and a financial-inclusion review do not combine into one composite market-size claim. For a narrow vertical such as insurtech, wealth technology, or cryptoasset markets, use a vertical-specific dataset before making a vertical-specific numerical claim.

Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

Federal ReserveFinancial ServicesFintechmarket researchUnited States

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