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What did the September ISM Manufacturing PMI show?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a September PMI of 54.5, down 0.1 percentage point from August’s 54.6. Both readings are above 50, the diffusion-index line separating expansion from contraction. ISM said U.S. manufacturing expanded for a ninth consecutive month after a 10-month period of contraction. ISM’s September 2026 report was released October 1, 2026.
The small decline therefore means the pace of overall reported improvement eased slightly; it does not mean manufacturing contracted. ISM also notes that a Manufacturing PMI above 47.5 over time generally indicates expansion of the overall economy. That is a broader-economy threshold convention, distinct from the 50 expansion/contraction mark used to interpret the index itself.
Why did factory activity ease while manufacturing was still expanding?
The headline PMI combines several survey measures, and their September movements did not all point in the same direction. New Orders and Employment rose, while Production cooled from August. Inventories moved back into contraction, and supplier deliveries remained slower. The headline’s 0.1-point decline captures the net reading, not a uniform weakening across every measure.
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| ISM measure | September 2026 | August 2026 | What the reading indicates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | Expansion; slightly lower than August |
| New Orders | 55.3 | 53.7 | Expansion strengthened |
| Production | 56.7 | 58.3 | Still growing, at a slower pace |
| Employment | 52.7 | 51.2 | Growing for a third month; reading improved |
| Supplier Deliveries | 59.0 | 59.3 | Deliveries continued to slow, but the rate of slowing eased |
| Inventories | 48.6 | 50.6 | Moved into contraction |
| Backlog of Orders | 56.4 | 51.8 | Growing; the reading increased |
| New Export Orders | 50.9 | 53.2 | Still growing, but more slowly |
| Imports | 51.0 | 52.5 | Still growing, but more slowly |
These are diffusion-index readings, not percentage growth rates. In particular, a Supplier Deliveries reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries, rather than faster delivery activity. ISM seasonally adjusts New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories; the same adjustment should not be assumed for every index in the table.
How much did the ISM Prices index rise?
The Prices index climbed to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in August, a 6.8-percentage-point increase. ISM described this as prices increasing at a faster rate. The 77.9 figure is an index reading—not a finding that manufacturers’ prices rose 77.9%.
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Survey respondents reported increases across commodities including aluminum, copper, steel, diesel fuel, freight, packaging, plastics, resins, semiconductors and electronic components, among others. ISM reported no commodities down in price. Respondents also reported short supplies of items including aluminum products, copper, DRAM, memory, printed circuit boards, steel and tungsten products. These are survey-reported mentions, not a comprehensive census of prices or shortages.
The report records respondents’ assessments but does not establish how much of the higher Prices reading was caused by any particular conflict, tariff or other factor. ISM’s September manufacturing roundup provides additional attributed context, but the survey figures alone do not identify a cause.
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What do low customer inventories and higher backlogs mean?
ISM’s Customers’ Inventories index was 41.6, which the organization labels “Too Low,” while the Backlog of Orders index rose to 56.4, indicating growing backlogs. These readings can coexist with overall expansion: one describes respondents’ assessment of customers’ stocks, and the other indicates whether backlogs are growing. Neither by itself proves what production, prices or demand will do next.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the survey’s scope and timing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey is based on a panel stratified by NAICS industries and their contributions to GDP. Its general methodology says surveys are sent early in the month, responses arrive through most of the month, and most respondents generally submit late in the month. September’s report was issued by Susan Spence, MBA, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. ISM’s overview of the PMI reports describes the survey timing.
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Five of the six largest manufacturing industries expanded in September: Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The breadth of expansion is useful context, but the survey does not forecast output or inflation on its own.
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