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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11When Tropical Storm Fay faded from the National Hurricane Center’s tracking map on July 10–11, 2020, that did not mean the rain or local hazards had ended. Fay was weakening as it moved inland, but forecasters still expected rain and flooding risks, while the National Weather Service’s New York-area office warned of additional weekend hazards across the tri-state area. The map tracked the tropical cyclone; it was not an all-hazards map.
Why could rain continue after Fay disappeared from the map?
A tropical cyclone can weaken and cease to be tracked as a tropical storm while rain and other hazards remain. In its 11 p.m. EDT July 10, 2020 advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Fay was moving north over northern New Jersey, about 15 miles northwest of New York City, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It expected the storm to continue weakening as it moved across southeastern New York and western New England, while forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain. That was a forecast issued at that time—not a measurement of what ultimately fell. NHC Advisory 7, July 10, 2020.
Leaving the hurricane-tracking map was not an all-clear for communities in the storm’s path. The National Weather Service (NWS) New York, New York forecast office cautioned in its July 10 Fay briefing: “Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.” The cone depicts forecast track uncertainty, not the full extent of possible rain, flooding, wind, surf, or other impacts. NWS New York Fay briefing, July 10, 2020.
What rain amounts did forecasters give?
The forecast changed between NHC advisories issued Friday evening. These figures are successive forecasts, not competing measurements of actual rainfall.
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| Advisory and issue time | Rain forecast |
|---|---|
| NHC Advisory 6, 5 p.m. EDT July 10, 2020 | 2 to 4 inches along and near Fay’s track, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NHC Advisory 6 |
| NHC Advisory 7, 11 p.m. EDT July 10, 2020 | 1 to 3 inches. NHC Advisory 7 |
The earlier advisory warned that the heaviest rain could cause flash and urban flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage. The later estimate was lower, but it remained a forecast of rain as Fay moved inland and weakened.
What hazards did the New York-area forecast include?
The NWS briefing applied to the New York tri-state forecast area—not the entire Northeast. At 5 p.m. ET on July 10, it described several distinct risks:
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- Rain and flash flooding: Heavy downpours were ongoing, with a localized flash-flood threat. The office also forecast 1 to 2 additional inches in the Lower Hudson Valley and southwestern Connecticut through 2 a.m.
- Coastal wind: Along the coast, winds of 35–40 mph with gusts to 50 mph were forecast.
- Saturday storms: Isolated severe-storm and flash-flood potential was forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Surf and currents: High surf and dangerous rip currents were expected to continue through the weekend.
These were local forecast details from the office’s July 10 briefing; they should not be read as a region-wide forecast for every part of the Northeast. NWS New York Fay briefing, July 10, 2020.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What is known about Fay’s eventual impacts?
The NHC’s retrospective report describes Fay as a short-lived tropical storm that formed off North Carolina, made landfall in New Jersey, and caused minor coastal flooding and inland freshwater flooding. That retrospective account establishes that flooding occurred; it is separate from the rain amounts forecast during the storm. NHC Tropical Cyclone Report: Fay.
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A precise observed storm-total rainfall figure is not established by the advisory and briefing records cited here. The Weather Prediction Center lists an official Fay storm-total rainfall product for July 6–11, 2020, but no station-specific total is included here. WPC Fay storm-total rainfall, July 6–11, 2020.
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