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TrendForce expects global notebook shipments to decline by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027. If notebook makers pass more of elevated CPU and DRAM costs on to buyers, the decline could reach a high-single-digit percentage. That is a conditional market forecast—not a confirmed result or a prediction that every laptop will rise in price by the same amount.
What TrendForce expects for 2027
In its October 8, 2026 outlook, TrendForce says the notebook market’s key question is shifting “from whether sufficient components are available to whether consumers can absorb higher prices.” Its central forecast is a low-single-digit year-over-year decline in global notebook shipments in 2027. In a scenario where more of the higher CPU and DRAM costs reach consumers, the decline could be high-single-digit. TrendForce’s October 8, 2026 outlook treats both outcomes as forecasts, not final shipment figures.
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Shipments measure units sold into the market, not the price of an individual laptop. A weaker shipment outlook therefore does not mean every model will cost more, nor does it specify a price increase for any particular configuration or country.
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Why might laptops cost more in 2027?
Key components take a larger share of costs
For its mainstream notebook benchmark with a US$900 suggested retail price, TrendForce estimates that the CPU, DRAM and SSD together represented about 68% of bill-of-materials (BOM) cost in the third quarter of 2026. BOM is the cost of the components in the device; 68% is not a forecast of a 68% retail-price increase. It does show why higher component costs can put pressure on laptop makers’ pricing and margins.
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TrendForce says lower-cost inventories are being depleted, leaving manufacturers more exposed to current CPU, DRAM and SSD costs. Its September 4, 2026 update had forecast a 9.4% year-over-year drop in global notebook shipments for 2026. That was an estimate at the time, not a final 2026 result.
There is no painless way for brands to respond
Notebook brands have three broad options when component costs rise:
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- Raise retail prices: This can pass costs along, but makes a new laptop less affordable and could discourage purchases.
- Absorb more of the costs: This can limit price increases for buyers but squeeze the manufacturer’s gross margin.
- Change specifications: Reducing features such as memory capacity may help control costs but can make a product less competitive.
Different brands may choose different combinations. TrendForce’s shipment scenarios depend in part on how much cost is passed through to buyers; they do not establish that every manufacturer will raise prices or cut specifications.
DRAM and NAND have different outlooks
TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain tight as AI-server demand and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production absorb advanced-process capacity. It expects NAND supply constraints to ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity and higher-layer production add output, with weak consumer-electronics demand also applying downward pressure. The distinction matters: “memory” is not one uniform supply story, and these component expectations may change. TrendForce’s July 30, 2026 memory outlook provides broader DRAM and NAND context, rather than a notebook shipment forecast.
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Why stronger 2026 shipments would not prove demand has recovered
TrendForce attributes support for 2026 shipments to improved CPU availability, notebook brands buying components earlier ahead of anticipated cost increases, and replacement purchases brought forward from later periods. Those factors can lift shipments in the near term without showing that underlying consumer demand has meaningfully recovered. If buyers replace devices earlier, fewer may be ready to replace them in subsequent periods.
TrendForce’s October outlook also estimates that notebook production outside China accounted for about 24% of global production in 2025 and 21% in 2026, and could fall below 20% in 2027. This is a production-location estimate, not confirmation that any named manufacturer will move its operations. The company says brands weigh component sourcing, logistics, cost and operating efficiency alongside geopolitical diversification.
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Does the nearly 40% price-increase figure apply to all laptops?
No. TrendForce’s March 10, 2026 report modeled a mainstream notebook that originally retailed for US$900. Under its assumptions, memory-price inflation alone could require a retail increase above 30% to preserve existing margins; combining memory and CPU increases could bring the modeled increase close to 40% if brands and distribution channels maintained those margins. That was a conditional scenario for one benchmark device, not an October forecast that laptop prices across the market will rise nearly 40% in 2027. TrendForce’s March 10 scenario should be read with those assumptions in mind.
Should you buy a laptop now or wait?
The shipment forecast cannot tell you whether a particular laptop is a good deal. It does not establish the future price of a specific model, local availability, or whether a configuration will remain in stock. Base the decision on the price and specifications available to you, how urgently you need a replacement, and whether the model meets your needs.
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- Buy sooner if your current laptop is failing or holding you back. A broad forecast cannot guarantee that waiting will bring a lower price or a better configuration.
- Compare the exact configuration, not just the model name. Check memory, storage, processor and the final local price; changes to specifications can affect value even when a product name stays the same.
- Consider waiting if your current device is adequate and the purchase is flexible. TrendForce’s outlook indicates uncertainty around costs and demand, not a guaranteed timing advantage.
- Check upgradeability before relying on a memory upgrade. The DRAM outlook does not tell you whether a particular notebook has replaceable or expandable memory. Verify the manufacturer’s specifications or service documentation for that exact model.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
