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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →A 2020 laboratory study found that people playing a simplified solar-geoengineering game could push cooling beyond the level that benefited the group overall. In a version that allowed countermeasures, outcomes included sharp inequality and major welfare losses. That is a warning about strategic incentives—not evidence that governments have fought over dimming the Sun, or a forecast that they will.
What did the “war game” actually test?
The 2020 PNAS paper Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty reported a controlled laboratory experiment. Participants made decisions in a simplified economic game involving geoengineering. They were not national leaders, and the exercise was not a military simulation or a real-world deployment.
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The researchers found evidence of “free-driving”: aggregate geoengineering could exceed the socially efficient level, reducing overall welfare. In a treatment that included countergeoengineering, the paper reported high inequality in participants’ payoffs and heavy welfare losses. Its abstract also cautions against treating these outcomes as a simple or inevitable “geoengineering war.” The experiment identifies a possible incentive problem under its game conditions; it does not establish how governments would behave.
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Why might countries disagree about how much cooling is desirable?
Solar geoengineering could affect regions differently, while countries may face different climate risks and value different temperature outcomes. An actor seeking more cooling could, in theory, press for more intervention than would maximize benefits for the group as a whole. If other actors respond with countermeasures, the result could be escalating interventions rather than agreement.
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That is a mechanism explored in economic models and laboratory research, not a settled political prediction. A review by Moreno-Cruz, McEvoy, McGinty and Cherry, published online in 2024 and in a 2025 journal volume, explains that assumptions in models—among them how actors make decisions and how governance works—help account for differing conclusions about strategic behavior.
What does “dimming the Sun” mean?
It is shorthand for solar geoengineering: approaches intended to change Earth’s energy balance by reflecting more sunlight or allowing more outgoing thermal radiation to escape. The National Academies’ 2021 report, Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance, focuses on three atmospheric strategies:
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| Approach | Basic idea |
|---|---|
| Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) | Add reflective particles to the stratosphere. |
| Marine cloud brightening (MCB) | Add particles to brighten low clouds over selected ocean regions. |
| Cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) | Modify high-altitude ice clouds so more outgoing thermal radiation can escape. |
These are distinct proposals, not interchangeable names for one technology. The laboratory game did not test the physical effects of deploying these interventions in the atmosphere.
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What does geopolitics add to the concern?
A perspective by Möller and Young in PLOS Climate, published April 1, 2026, argues that research scenarios should examine security motivations, political power and competition alongside climate-centered cases. The authors point out that some modeled “optimal” strategies assume countries can cooperate over very long periods. Their argument is that this assumption should not be the only one researchers explore—not that hostile deployment has happened or is certain.
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Whether a scenario looks cooperative or conflict-prone depends on who can act, who sets the desired climate outcome, who experiences regional side effects, and whether others have a way to counteract the intervention. Emissions policy, duration, the possibility of stopping, and security motivations also change the question being modeled.
Would solar geoengineering solve climate change?
No. The National Academies says solar geoengineering would not reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases or address impacts such as ocean acidification, and it is not a substitute for cutting emissions. Reflecting sunlight could reduce some warming while leaving the underlying accumulation of greenhouse gases in place.
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The report also flags potential risks involving ozone, regional climate—including the Indian monsoon—ecosystems, agriculture, health and governance. These are risks to assess, not a claim that every intervention would produce each effect in the same way.
Why stopping matters
If an intervention had offset substantial warming while greenhouse-gas emissions remained high, abruptly stopping it could expose the planet to catastrophically rapid warming, according to the National Academies. The concern makes the duration and termination of an intervention central to evaluating a proposal, alongside how it would begin and what emissions reductions accompany it.
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How to judge a claim about a solar-geoengineering “war game”
Before treating a dramatic headline as evidence of what governments will do, check what kind of evidence it describes and what assumptions drive the scenario:
- Evidence type: Was it a laboratory experiment, a model or simulation, or an observed event?
- Decision-making: Was intervention unilateral, coordinated, or both? Who chose the target temperature?
- Distribution of effects: Who receives potential benefits, and who bears regional side effects?
- Countermeasures: Could other actors respond with countergeoengineering?
- Time horizon: What assumptions does the analysis make about emissions cuts, intervention duration and termination?
- Political setting: Does it include security motivations and competition, or assume long-term cooperation?
A laboratory result can reveal a strategic incentive worth studying; a model can show how outcomes change under stated assumptions. Neither, on its own, proves that a real-world conflict has occurred or that one is inevitable.
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