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Indonesia’s fires do not show a steady year-by-year climb in burned area. A 2025 nationwide satellite study found sharp peaks in 2019 and 2023, low activity in 2021–2022, and an intermediate 2024. Those peaks coincided with El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, which can bring warmer, drier weather. Drained peatlands can amplify the danger—but “extreme” can mean more land burned, greater burn severity, intense smoke, or larger losses, and those measures do not always rise together.
What does “more extreme” mean for a wildfire?
There is no single measure of fire extremity. Burned area records how much land a fire has affected; burn severity describes how strongly fire alters vegetation or soil. Fire intensity, smoke exposure, ecological damage and economic losses are different outcomes again. A season can burn less land yet cause more severe damage in the places that burn.
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That distinction matters in Indonesia. The strongest evidence in the available nationwide series shows volatile seasons with pronounced peaks, not a smooth annual increase. Separate evidence from Kalimantan suggests that burned area and peat-fire severity can move in opposite directions.
What does the recent national record show?
A 2025 PLOS ONE study used Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to map monthly burned area nationwide from 2019 through 2024. Its estimates put 2019 and 2023 at the high points, 2021 and 2022 at low activity, and 2024 between those extremes.
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| Year | Sentinel-2 burned area | MODIS MCD64A1 estimate |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2.64 million hectares, estimated by the study authors | 2.09 million hectares, estimated by the study authors |
| 2023 | 1.70 million hectares, estimated by the study authors | 1.11 million hectares, estimated by the study authors |
| 2024 | 0.49 million hectares, estimated by the study authors | 0.15 million hectares, estimated by the study authors |
These are the paper’s estimates for the same years, not a universal count of every fire. The study reports systematically lower totals from MCD64A1, attributing the difference to its coarser spatial resolution and difficulty detecting small fires. The authors’ burned-class validation—98.7% user’s accuracy, with a 95% confidence interval of 97.7–99.6%—applies to their assessment in seven provinces in 2019, not automatically to every year or location.
Longer historical context also shows that major fire seasons are not new. Indonesia’s 2022 forest reference-level submission to the UNFCCC reproduces Ministry of Environment and Forestry estimates of 3.9 million hectares burned in 2006 and 2.6 million in 2015. Those official mapped estimates use a different approach and period from the Sentinel-2 study, so they should not be spliced into its series as if all years had been measured identically. The submission describes mapping based on Landsat and Sentinel imagery, hotspot and ground-truthing data, and burn-scar interpretation. Read the Government of Indonesia’s 2022 submission.
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Why do some seasons have more fire?
Dry climate conditions make fuels easier to ignite
The PLOS ONE study found monthly fire peaks in September and October. It links the major 2019 and 2023 seasons with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño conditions. In 2019, the paper reports an IOD value of +1.8°C and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) reaching +0.5°C. In 2023, it reports ONI above +1.5°C from September through December and an IOD value of +1.5°C. The study also found low activity in 2020–2022 alongside neutral-to-negative climate phases.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsThe proposed mechanism is that positive IOD and El Niño conditions can reduce rainfall and convection, leaving warmer, drier conditions and more flammable fuels for longer. La Niña and negative IOD conditions tend to bring more rain and humidity. This is an association between climate conditions and fire activity, not proof that climate variability alone caused a given fire or season.
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Ignitions and land management still matter
Weather helps determine how readily a fire can spread and persist; it does not explain how every fire starts or what happens after ignition. Land use, fuel conditions, prevention and suppression also shape outcomes. The Government of Indonesia’s forest reference-level submission says prolonged dry seasons boosted by El Niño raise fire risk and intensity, particularly in drained peatlands. It also notes that most mapped fires during 2000–2020 were on mineral soils and non-forest cover. Indonesia’s fire problem therefore should not be reduced to peat or forest fires alone.
Why are peatlands a particular concern?
Drained peatlands are more vulnerable to fire because drainage dries peat that would otherwise retain water. Once ignited, peat can burn below the surface, making a fire difficult to detect and extinguish and allowing it to persist. That makes peat condition an important risk amplifier even though many fires occur elsewhere.
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A circa-2023 study of peatland fires in Kalimantan reports that average burn severity in 2015–2021 was 12.8% greater than in the preceding equal-length periods, while average burned peat area was 28.7% lower. The figures are averages across Kalimantan, not a finding about every Indonesian province or every fire. The study’s accessible summary does not establish its precise severity definition or uncertainty intervals, so the figures are best treated as a regional indication that burned area and severity need not track together. Kalimantan peatland fire severity study.
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Why do published totals for the same period differ?
Satellite burned-area products, government mapping, hotspot counts and administrative estimates measure different things. Their geographic coverage, time windows, resolution and methods also differ. A hotspot is a thermal detection, not a count of separate fires and not a measurement of burned hectares.
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- Satellite burned-area maps: The PLOS ONE Sentinel-2 and MCD64A1 figures above are modelled or mapped burned area using different satellite products and resolutions.
- KLHK’s 2024 update: Indonesia’s Ministry of Environment and Forestry reported 283,620.51 hectares burned from January through September 2024. It attributed 25,193.57 hectares to peat and 258,426.94 hectares to mineral soils. The release separately counted 3,163 high-confidence Terra/Aqua hotspots through 10 October 2024, compared with 7,786 over the same dates in 2023. The area and hotspot windows differ, and neither figure is interchangeable with the PLOS study’s full-year Sentinel-2 estimate. KLHK’s 11 October 2024 update.
- BNPB’s 2025 evaluation: Indonesia’s disaster agency reported 376,805 hectares for 2024 and 213,984 for 2025 in its season evaluation. The relevant passage does not specify a mapping method, so these values should be read as BNPB’s reported comparison—not joined to KLHK’s January–September figure or the satellite study’s estimates as a single consistent series. BNPB’s 13 October 2025 evaluation.
The same BNPB release reports state losses of 75 trillion rupiah in 2019 and 6.7 trillion rupiah in 2025. Those are the agency’s reported loss figures, not a comparable measure of fire severity or an independent estimate of total damage.
What can be said about fire prevention and suppression?
Government releases describe measures including patrols, water-bombing aircraft, weather modification and prevention work. BNPB chief Suharyanto said the agency deployed 12 patrol helicopters and 18 water-bombing helicopters in 2025, compared with 40 helicopters in 2023–2024. Those deployment figures describe an operational difference; the cited material does not isolate how much suppression or prevention changed burned area, severity or losses after accounting for weather and land-use conditions.
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