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Amazon fire activity began rising sharply in September 2026 even though the current El Niño is still strengthening. That is not a contradiction: El Niño changes tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation before Pacific sea-surface temperatures reach their usual November-to-February peak. Drier conditions have primed parts of the central and eastern Amazon, especially forest edges and areas that burned previously, while the highest risk in the southern Amazon may not arrive until August and September 2027.
What is happening in the Amazon now
NASA reported a sharp increase in Amazon fire activity and smoke emissions beginning in September 2026. The early surge is concentrated in the central and eastern Amazon rather than spread evenly across the entire basin. NASA describes the region as entering the early stages of a potentially long and severe fire season.
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Fires near Santarém and Manaus may continue until the rainy season returns in December 2026 or January 2027. The timing is therefore staggered: current fires are an immediate central-and-eastern Amazon problem, while the southern Amazon’s most dangerous window may come during a later dry season.
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Why fires can rise before El Niño peaks
El Niño is an ocean-atmosphere pattern, not simply a hot patch of Pacific water. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures alter tropical convection—the areas where heat and moisture rise into storms—and those changes reorganize the Walker circulation. The resulting circulation shifts can suppress rainfall over parts of the Amazon and extend dry spells before the Pacific temperature maximum occurs.
When rain is disrupted, vegetation loses moisture, leaf litter dries and fire-weather conditions become more favorable. Human ignition remains important: agricultural clearing, pasture management and accidental escapes can start fires, but dry fuels allow those fires to spread farther and burn more intensely. Rainforest edges and forest that has burned before are especially vulnerable to renewed fire because their structure and fuel loads have already been altered.
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NASA calls this sequence a “cascade” of tropical fires accompanying disrupted El Niño rainfall patterns. The atmosphere can therefore deliver the fire risk first; the ocean’s peak is a later marker in the same event.
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Forecasts and observations point to an unusually strong event, although “super El Niño” is a media expression rather than an official category. The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño typically reaches its maximum between November and February and explicitly states that “super El Niño” is not part of its operational classification system. In an official forecast, “very strong El Niño” is the more precise wording.
| Date and source | Measure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| June 11, 2026, NOAA advisory | 63% chance that sea-surface temperatures would exceed 2.0°C in a monitored Niño region | A probability of crossing a temperature threshold; it was not a fire forecast. |
| October 8, 2026, NOAA Climate Prediction Center | Greater than 83% chance of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions through January–March 2027 | A seasonal outlook for the ocean-atmosphere event, not a probability that a particular forest will burn. |
| October 2026, NOAA Climate Prediction Center | Niño-3.4: +2.1°C; Niño-3: +3.0°C; Niño-1+2: +3.9°C | Index values for separate Pacific monitoring regions, showing exceptional warmth in October. |
Those numbers describe Pacific conditions and forecast confidence. They should not be read as a direct conversion into a percentage increase in Amazon fires. Local rainfall, land use, wind, fuel moisture and the arrival of seasonal rains determine whether a given ignition spreads.
When different parts of the Amazon face the greatest risk
| Region | Observed or projected timing | Why the timing differs |
|---|---|---|
| Central and eastern Amazon | Early fire phase began in September 2026 | El Niño-related rainfall disruption arrived during the region’s dry-season conditions, leaving fuels ready to burn. |
| Santarém and Manaus vicinity | Fires may persist until rains return in December 2026 or January 2027 | Fire activity can continue while fuels remain dry; the end of the season depends on the onset of sustained rain. |
| Southern Amazon in Brazil and Paraguay | Drought and fire-risk peak projected for August–September 2027 | Seasonal calendars and the delayed regional expression of the circulation pattern shift the highest risk into a later dry season. |
The later southern-Amazon window does not mean the 2026 event has ended. It reflects how one El Niño can produce different rainfall responses across seasons and subregions. A location can move from relatively manageable conditions to dangerous fire weather months after another part of the basin has already experienced its peak.
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How bad could the 2026–27 fire season become?
Scientists are warning of a long and severe season, but the evidence does not support a single reliable basin-wide total yet. NASA Earth system scientist Douglas Morton said, “Given the intensity of this El Niño, this really is the year for people to avoid burning at all costs.” That warning addresses the heightened probability that routine fires will escape control under dry conditions.
The most defensible near-term expectation is continued elevated fire activity in the central and eastern Amazon until substantial rains arrive. Smoke emissions can rise alongside fire activity, affecting air quality far from the flames and making satellite-observed smoke an important indicator of regional impacts. The eventual severity will depend on how long rainfall deficits persist, whether winds spread fires through contiguous fuels, and how much new burning occurs in already stressed landscapes.
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Previously burned forest deserves particular attention. A reburn can move quickly through damaged vegetation and may release substantial smoke even where the first fire occurred years earlier. Newly cleared edges can also ignite more readily than intact, humid forest. These patterns mean that a higher satellite fire signal does not imply uniform combustion of old-growth rainforest across the basin.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is this really a “super El Niño”?
It is reasonable to describe the 2026 event as very strong based on the NOAA probabilities and October index values. It is not accurate to present “super El Niño” as a formal intensity tier. WMO’s operational products do not use that term, and the event has not yet reached its climatological peak.
The practical point is unchanged by the label: a strong El Niño can disrupt Amazon rainfall early, and the resulting drought stress can raise fire danger before the Pacific reaches its warmest seasonal average.
What to watch through 2027
- Rainfall onset near Santarém and Manaus: sustained wet-season rain is the key signal that can end the current central-and-eastern fire phase.
- Pacific observations: NOAA updates to Niño-region temperatures and forecasts will show whether the event is still intensifying or has passed its maximum.
- Smoke and satellite fire detections: simultaneous increases indicate that dry fuels are converting more ignitions into spreading fires, although they do not by themselves establish a basin-wide total.
- Southern-Amazon rainfall during 2027: conditions in Brazil’s and Paraguay’s southern Amazon regions will determine whether the projected August–September risk peak materializes.
- Burning restrictions and land management: avoiding intentional fires during dry, windy periods can reduce additional ignitions while landscapes are most flammable.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo summarized the broader hazard: “This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.” For the Amazon, the immediate lesson is that the calendar date of El Niño’s ocean peak is not a safe-date indicator. Fire risk can arrive months earlier and can return in a different region during the following dry season.
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