In the 19 midterm-election observations from 1950 through 2022, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after Election Day every time. That is a striking historical record, not a forecast: the data cannot tell us whether the next 12-month period after the 2026 midterms will also be positive.
What the 19-for-19 record actually measures
The S&P 500 is an index of 500 leading U.S. companies and covers approximately 80% of available U.S. market capitalization, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The headline’s 19 observations refer to the midterm elections from 1950 through 2022 and the index’s change over the following 12 months. Tempora’s table shows a positive change in each observation; Capital Group’s chart, which extends through 2023, also reports no negative one-year post-midterm price return.
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Return definitions and starting dates matter. Capital Group describes its figures as S&P 500 price returns and starts the post-election measurement on Election Day. A price return reflects index prices, not dividends. Total return includes dividends, so figures based on the two measures should not be compared as if they were identical. Capital Group reports a 15.4% average one-year price return after midterms since 1950; its analysis was current as of January 15, 2026. See Capital Group’s midterm-election analysis.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →The result also depends on where the historical window begins. Fidelity reports that the S&P 500 posted a positive price return in the 12 months after midterm elections 95% of the time since 1938—not 100%. The 19-for-19 statement is accurate for the 1950–2022 sample, but it is not an all-history record. Fidelity’s explanation of the post-midterm pattern uses the longer period.
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A positive year after the election does not mean a strong midterm year
The post-election 12-month window and the calendar year containing the election are different periods. They can have different outcomes: Tempora’s 1950–2022 table shows that only 11 of the 19 midterm calendar years finished higher, with a median calendar-year change of +1.06%. It identifies double-digit declines in 1966, 1974, 2002 and 2022. The year can be weak while the period beginning around Election Day is positive.
Midterm years have also been weaker than non-midterm years in BlackRock’s comparison. Its figures are averages over distinct windows, not alternatives to the one-year price-return record:
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| Comparison | Midterm years | Non-midterm years |
|---|---|---|
| Average annual U.S. stock market return | 7.5% | 12.4% |
| Average S&P 500 total return in the six months after midterms | 14.1% | 5.7% |
BlackRock says its six-month indexed comparison is based on midterms since 1970, with data as of August 13, 2026. That six-month total-return comparison is not the same measure or window as a 12-month S&P 500 price return. See BlackRock’s midterm-election market analysis.
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As of August 2026, BlackRock reported that U.S. stocks were up 13.1% for the year, the sixth-best start to a midterm year since 1926. It also counted four S&P 500 daily moves of at least 2% in either direction through August. Those figures describe the market to date; they do not establish what it will do after Election Day.
Valuation is another consideration, but not a timing signal. In its July 2026 report, the Federal Reserve said S&P 500 prices relative to analysts’ projected earnings were in the upper range of their historical distribution, while the equity premium remained near the lower end of its historical range. These measures describe the market’s valuation context, not a certain direction for future returns. See the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Financial Stability Report.
Fidelity points to policy uncertainty, including concerns about oil, tariffs, consumer prices and interest rates. It also identifies earnings, capital spending and economic conditions as factors investors should watch. Political uncertainty may coincide with volatility, but the historical streak does not establish that elections caused the subsequent gains. Fidelity strategist Anu Gaggar’s advice is: “Vote in the booths, not in your portfolios.”
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why 19 positive outcomes are not a 2026 forecast
Nineteen observations are a small sample, and the result depends on the chosen start date, return measure and time window. The S&P 500 has also tended to rise over long periods, so a positive result after an election is not, by itself, evidence that the election produced the gain. Tempora notes that no mechanism explaining the streak is established. That does not make the record meaningless; it means it should be read as a historical description rather than a dependable rule.
There is no established answer yet to whether 2026 will break the pattern. The 1950–2022 sample and Capital Group’s chart through 2023 provide useful context, while Fidelity’s since-1938 figure shows how a broader window changes the headline. None settles the next 12 months. Election history alone is not a portfolio plan.
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