The most credible way to protect people from El Niño is to act before its effects become emergencies: turn seasonal forecasts into local plans, release money when warning thresholds are reached, and protect food, water and livelihoods. A more radical idea—targeted marine cloud brightening—has shown dampening effects in climate simulations, but it has not been proven as a safe or reliable way to control El Niño in the real world.
Can the world stop El Niño?
No established method can switch El Niño off, and the strongest evidence-backed plans focus on reducing harm rather than controlling the climate system. El Niño shifts the odds of certain rainfall and temperature patterns; its effects differ by region and from one event to another. That variability makes preparedness more useful than assuming every place will face the same hazard.
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The forecast creates time to prepare. On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization said El Niño was established and expected to intensify, with near-100% likelihood of persistence through February 2027. That is a dated forecast, not a guarantee of identical impacts everywhere.
Which ideas are most ambitious—and how ready are they?
| Approach | What it aims to do | Readiness and evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Early warnings linked to action | Give agencies and communities time to prepare for forecast hazards. | Multi-hazard warning systems and preparedness planning are already being advanced; warnings must still reach people and trigger useful action. |
| Anticipatory finance and practical protection | Put resources and support in place before drought, flooding or food insecurity escalates. | FAO and WFP describe an operational response package and funding appeal, but requested funding and planned reach are not the same as money received or people served. |
| Cross-government and community coordination | Manage connected risks to farming, water, energy and vulnerable households. | UNDRR recommends coordinated planning; effectiveness depends on local capacity and decisions that fit the forecast and community. |
| Targeted marine cloud brightening | Try to induce a La Niña-like response that could dampen El Niño impacts. | Explored in simulations, not established as a deployed or safe climate-control measure. |
How can forecasts become action before a crisis?
Warnings help only if they lead to decisions. UNDRR recommends matching forecast timescales to the decisions they can support:
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- Seasonal forecasts: guide strategy, contingency planning and finance.
- Sub-seasonal forecasts: support local preparedness and pre-positioning of supplies or assistance.
- Short-range forecasts: inform immediate field operations as weather hazards approach.
That chain also needs impact-based information: a forecast should explain what a likely hazard could mean for crops, water access, infrastructure and people, so agencies and communities can act on the risk rather than the weather signal alone.
The United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative aims to protect everyone with multi-hazard warning systems by the end of 2027. Its page reported 119 countries covered in 2025, a 113% increase since 2015. Those figures describe global multi-hazard warning coverage, not an El Niño-specific forecasting service.
What should early action pay for?
FAO and WFP’s 18 June 2026 appeal described locally tailored measures intended to protect livelihoods, consumption and agricultural production. Depending on the hazard and local conditions, these can include:
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- Cash assistance to help households meet urgent needs.
- Drought-tolerant or flood-resistant seeds, selected for the location and expected conditions.
- Livestock protection and agricultural advice.
- Water harvesting and storage where water scarcity is a risk.
- Flood-protection infrastructure and early-warning information where heavy rain or flooding is a concern.
There is no universal package: a measure suited to drought may not address flood risk, and the choice of seed or water intervention depends on local conditions.
Why release money early?
FAO and WFP sought $202 million to protect nearly 9 million people across 22 priority countries, with a stated target of 8.8 million. The agencies said they were positioned to support 1.2 million people, while an additional $167 million would enable expansion to a further 7.6 million. These are figures from an appeal and planned capacity, not confirmation that all funds were received or all people reached.
FAO and WFP cite an estimate that “Every dollar invested in anticipatory response can result in up to $7 in avoided losses and response costs.” The phrase “up to” matters: it is an agency-attributed estimate, not a guaranteed return for every project.
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Why do governments need to coordinate across sectors?
A rainfall deficit can affect crops, drinking water and hydropower at the same time. Decisions made for one sector can therefore create trade-offs for another. UNDRR recommends coordination among public agencies, technical partners, regional bodies, local organizations and affected communities, with plans that protect vulnerable people and enable local action.
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Exposure and capacity shape the harm as much as the climate signal. Poverty, food insecurity, conflict, displacement and limited institutional capacity can compound a hazard, so the same forecast may require different priorities in different places. Local organizations and communities need a role in deciding which actions are feasible and who needs support first.
Where are the main risks in the current outlook?
A 15 June 2026 analysis by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), based on seasonal forecasts and scenario modeling, identified heightened drought risks in Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa and Central America, with similar risks in the Sahel and Indian subcontinent as El Niño intensifies. It projected increased rainfall in East Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, and areas of North and South America. More rain is not automatically beneficial: on degraded or saturated soils it can contribute to erosion, nutrient loss and waterlogging.
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The same JRC analysis projected heat building across the tropics and subtropics from September, peaking between December 2026 and February 2027 and persisting into spring 2027. These are June 2026 projections, not observed outcomes. Its food-price scenarios varied by crop, and its most extreme scenario extended beyond historical precedent; they should not be read as a single certain price forecast.
Separately, UNDRR reported a WMO forecast of a 2.9°C seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomaly for August–October 2026. That is a forecast figure for that season, not a timeless measure of El Niño’s strength or a direct prediction of local damage.
Could marine cloud brightening dampen El Niño?
A 2024 paper by Wan, Fasullo, Rosenbloom, Chen and Ricke, titled “Targeted marine cloud brightening can dampen El Niño,” examines a proposed solar-geoengineering intervention. The paper’s abstract reports that modeled brightening in the southeast Pacific reproduced observed cloud changes from a 2019–2020 experiment-of-opportunity and produced La Niña-like responses in simulations. Simulations of the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 El Niño events found that earlier and longer intervention scenarios restored neutral ENSO conditions and dampened impacts.
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Those findings make the idea an ambitious research proposal, not a proven intervention. The evidence described is simulation-based; it does not establish that real-world deployment can reliably control El Niño, that it is safe at planetary scale, or that there is a settled governance plan. The authors present it as a potential complement to forecasting, not a replacement for preparedness.
What would a serious protection plan prioritize?
The practical priority is to connect information, authority and resources: use forecasts at the timescales suited to decisions, agree in advance on actions and funding triggers, and tailor support to the people and places facing the greatest risk. Experimental climate interventions should be evaluated separately from measures that agencies can plan and deploy now; they are not interchangeable solutions.
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