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Not reliably on the evidence available. The Green Party of England and Wales said its personal-tax changes could raise £50–£70 billion a year in 2024 prices by the end of the next parliament. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said some measures could bring in substantial revenue, but doubted that the package would deliver the sums claimed without real economic costs. Its key concerns were the carbon tax’s uncertain yield, the difficulty of administering a wealth tax, and the effects of National Insurance and pension-tax changes on people beyond the very wealthy.
The question is about the party’s June 2024 general-election manifesto, not a verified statement of its policy in 2026. And although the headline says the Greens are “striking a chord”, the evidence discussed here does not establish that voters backed the tax proposals or that they drove a rise in Green support.
What did the Green Party propose?
The Green Party of England and Wales presented its 2024 tax plans as a shift away from taxing employment and towards wealth and pollution. But the package was not simply a tax on the very rich: some proposals would affect higher-paid workers, and a carbon tax could affect people more broadly.
Wealth and investment income
The manifesto included an annual wealth tax and a plan to align the treatment of income from investment and work. The party’s wealth-tax background document described a tax covering wealth in all forms, valued at current market value, for UK-resident taxpayers. It proposed collecting it through an extension of self-assessment. That description sets out the intended scope; it does not by itself resolve how assets would be valued or how the system would work in difficult cases.
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National Insurance and pensions
The proposals also included raising National Insurance contributions on earnings above £50,270. The Chartered Institute of Taxation’s summary of the manifesto reported a proposed 1% rate on annual earnings above that threshold, with the rate on that band raised to 8%. The same summary covered the wealth tax and the alignment of capital gains with income tax. These are changes to the treatment of earnings and investment, not just measures on large fortunes.
The manifesto also proposed restricting pension tax relief. The IFS said this could raise substantial sums, while warning that its effects could reach people on “not terribly high salaries”, including nurses and teachers.
Carbon, VAT and other taxes
A carbon tax was another major part of the revenue pitch. The manifesto also proposed changes to VAT, including reductions in areas such as hospitality and culture and increases for financial services and private education. Other proposals affected inheritance, pensions, land and council tax. The available account does not provide a complete schedule of rates, thresholds and expected yields for each of these measures, so their individual effects cannot all be quantified here.
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How large were the revenue and spending claims?
The figures often cited describe different parts of the manifesto, and should not be treated as interchangeable. The £50–£70 billion figure was the party’s estimate for its personal-tax changes; the larger totals below were the IFS’s description of the overall package.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →| Figure | Who gave it | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| £50–£70 billion a year in 2024 prices | Green Party of England and Wales, 2024 | The party’s estimate for revenue from its personal-tax changes by the end of the next parliament; it is not an independent costing confirmed by the IFS. |
| More than £170 billion a year | Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024 | The IFS’s description of the manifesto’s overall tax increases by the end of the next parliament. |
| £160 billion | Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024 | The IFS’s description of the proposed increase in day-to-day public spending. |
| £90 billion a year | Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024 | The IFS’s description of additional capital spending. |
| More than £90 billion | Green Party proposal as discussed by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024 | The proposed carbon-tax yield, which the IFS said was doubtful. |
The IFS figures describe the scale of the manifesto package; they do not verify the party’s separate £50–£70 billion estimate. Nor should the spending figures be added to the personal-tax estimate as though they were all the same kind of total.
Why did the IFS doubt the package would raise what was claimed?
A carbon tax can erode its own tax base
The IFS questioned whether a carbon tax could raise more than £90 billion. If the tax succeeds in changing behaviour and reducing emissions, the amount of taxable emissions falls too. That does not mean a carbon tax cannot raise revenue; it means a forecast needs to account for how the tax changes the activity it taxes. A large initial estimate is not automatically a dependable source of recurring revenue.
A wealth tax depends on workable valuation and administration
The IFS said a wealth tax could raise money but would be tough to implement. The party’s model relied on valuing wealth in all forms at current market value and bringing the tax into self-assessment. Those design choices make valuation and administration central to whether the projected yield is achievable. The available assessment does not establish a definitive revenue figure after those practical challenges are taken into account.
Some changes reach beyond the very wealthy
The IFS regarded higher National Insurance on earnings above £50,000 and restrictions on pension tax relief as measures that could raise substantial sums. But the reach of the latter, it warned, could include workers on “not terribly high salaries”, such as nurses and teachers. That is why describing the entire plan as “taxing the rich” misses part of who could bear the cost.
Work and investment incentives matter to the yield
In its overall assessment, the IFS expected the proposals to create disincentives to work and invest. A revenue estimate is not just a calculation of what a tax would collect if people changed nothing: changes in work, investment or other behaviour can affect the amount collected. The IFS’s concern was that the package’s claimed sums could not be assumed to arrive without economic costs.
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Temporary receipts are not a secure basis for permanent spending
The IFS also cautioned that temporary windfall taxes would not provide a durable funding source for permanent spending commitments. The distinction matters when judging a package intended to support ongoing day-to-day spending: a one-off or short-lived receipt cannot be treated as a reliable annual stream.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the IFS verdict establish—and what does it not?
In their 2024 reaction to the manifesto, IFS authors Carl Emmerson and Helen Miller wrote: “It is unlikely that the specific tax-raising measures they propose to help achieve all this would raise the sorts of sums they claim – and certainly not without real economic cost.” Their conclusion is a warning about the feasibility and likely yield of the proposed taxes, not a complete judgment on whether the policies are fair or desirable.
Those are separate questions. Voters may prefer a larger public sector and accept higher taxes to pay for it; the fiscal question is whether these particular measures can reliably raise the forecast revenue, taking account of administration and changed behaviour. The IFS assessment challenges confidence in the forecast, but does not settle the political choice about the level or purposes of taxation and spending.
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How to assess a tax pitch like this
Five questions help distinguish a headline estimate from a dependable funding plan:
- What is the baseline? A revenue projection needs a clear comparison with what would happen without the change.
- Does the estimate account for behaviour? Work, investment and emissions can respond to tax changes, altering the taxable base.
- Is the revenue recurring? Permanent spending needs a durable stream, not temporary receipts.
- Can the tax be administered? Valuation, collection and avoidance risks can affect whether the stated yield is practical.
- Who actually pays? Look beyond the policy label to the effects on higher-paid workers and people outside the very wealthy.
Applied to the 2024 Green manifesto, these tests explain the IFS’s central objection: the package contained measures that might raise substantial revenue, but the total claimed was not, in its view, credible without significant economic costs and unresolved practical challenges.
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