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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesNobody can currently give you a credible, sourced number for how big UK peer-to-peer lending will be in 2030. The published evidence we reviewed contains no current UK-wide P2P volume series, and none that separates consumer P2P, peer-to-business (P2B) lending and institutional marketplace credit. What it does show is the direction of travel: closer regulatory scrutiny of how retail investors are sold risk, and at least one major business-lending platform leaning on institutional money and a wider product range.
This article sets out those signals, what each can and cannot support, and how to read any P2P “forecast” you come across.
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What “P2P lending” means here
HM Revenue & Customs describes P2P platforms as providing “a connection and management service that puts lenders (the investors) in contact with borrowers; the platforms themselves are not party to the loans being made” (HMRC Savings and Investment Manual, SAIM12020, page updated 7 April 2026). The model generally works on a “many to many” basis: a borrower’s requirement is assembled from smaller contributions by many lenders, and principal and interest repayments pass back through the platform.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteOperating the platform is a regulated activity. HMRC says platforms facilitating loans involving individuals or relevant persons must be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and the FCA Handbook describes “operating an electronic system in relation to lending” as an activity aimed at what are sometimes called P2P platforms.
Authorisation is not a guarantee. It does not make a P2P investment capital-protected or equivalent to a bank deposit, and nothing in the evidence reviewed establishes deposit-style protection for any particular product.
Is the market still growing? The evidence boundary
The honest answer is that the market-wide question cannot be answered from the sources available. The table lists every figure that can be responsibly cited, with what it does and does not measure.
| Figure | Source and period | What it covers | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Around £480m | FCA review, citing Nesta and the University of Cambridge; 2013 figure | UK loan-based crowdfunding | Anything about current volumes |
| Almost £1.3bn | Same FCA review; 2014 figure | UK loan-based crowdfunding | Anything about current volumes |
| £749m business / £547m consumer | Same FCA review; 2014 split | The two borrower segments within the 2014 total | How the split has moved since |
| £1.7bn credit extended; 18,000 SMEs supported | Funding Circle Holdings plc, H1 2026 results, published 8 September 2026 | One company’s half-year lending across its business | Industry totals, retail-investor funding share, or other platforms’ trajectories |
Two cautions follow. First, the 2013–2014 numbers are a snapshot from the sector’s early expansion, not a baseline you can grow forward with an assumed rate. Second, Funding Circle’s £1.7bn is company-reported credit across its products, not “UK P2P market lending”. Combining these into a current market size or compound growth rate would be invention, and so would borrowing a mortgage or bank-credit forecast and relabelling it.
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The FCA’s portfolio letter to P2P platforms, dated 15 January 2024, is the clearest current statement of supervisory priorities. It says P2P is supervised by the FCA’s Consumer Investments Directorate and opens by saying it “outlines the harms to consumers and markets most likely to arise from P2P business models, and our strategy to address those harms.”
The controls it highlights for restricted mass-market investments are:
- risk warnings;
- restrictions on inducements;
- cooling-off periods;
- client categorisation; and
- appropriateness testing.
The letter also records the FCA’s earlier finding that risk-warning compliance was below the standard it expected. On method, it says: “We will increasingly use data, already provided through regulatory returns, but now supplemented by direct information requests and intelligence, to assist in identifying outlier firms that pose a heightened risk of harm, whether deliberately or not, and engage with them to mitigate any harm or potential harm.”
Reasonable inference: platforms that depend on retail investors are likely to keep facing scrutiny of how they describe risk, onboard and categorise customers, and test appropriateness, and firms that look like outliers in regulatory data are more likely to attract attention. That is an inference from a 2024 letter. The evidence reviewed does not show new P2P rules being imminent, and this article does not claim any.
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Signal 2: business lending is leaning on institutional funding
Funding Circle’s H1 2026 results are the most current evidence on the business-lending end of the market. The company reports £1.7bn of credit extended, 18,000 SMEs supported, £2.4bn in committed forward flows from institutional funders, and efforts to scale FlexiPay and credit-card products alongside term loans. Management describes the term-loan business as “highly cash-generative, powered by a capital-light platform and sustainable institutional funding” (a company statement, not an independent finding).
What this suggests is that at least one prominent platform now looks less like a pure retail-investor marketplace and more like an SME-finance platform with a diversified product set. Forward-flow agreements give a platform committed funding for future loans, which is a different proposition from matching individual retail lenders loan by loan.
What it does not show: that other UK P2P lenders are growing, that the reported credit was funded by retail P2P investors, or that cards and FlexiPay products are P2P investments for anyone.
Plausible directions, and what would confirm them
These are conditional readings of the evidence above, not forecasts.
| Direction | Why it is plausible | What would confirm it |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional capital becomes more central in P2B | Funding Circle reports £2.4bn of committed forward flows and describes sustainable institutional funding | Other platforms disclosing comparable committed-funding arrangements |
| Platforms broaden beyond term loans | Funding Circle is scaling FlexiPay and credit-card products | Further product launches reported separately from term-loan volumes |
| Retail investor access stays tightly controlled | The FCA’s 2024 letter focuses on warnings, cooling-off, categorisation and appropriateness | Subsequent FCA communications or enforcement on the same controls |
| Regulatory data drives targeted supervision | The FCA says it will use returns, information requests and intelligence to find outlier firms | Published follow-up on outlier firms or data-driven reviews |
How to judge any P2P prediction you read
- Check the segment. Consumer lending, P2B/SME lending and institutional marketplace credit behave differently. A single “P2P market” number may blend them.
- Check the funding base. Retail lenders and institutional forward-flow funding carry different risks and incentives.
- Check the period and geography. A 2014 UK figure, a 2026 company figure and a global estimate are not interchangeable.
- Check the evidence type. Regulatory disclosures, company statements and historical industry research carry different weight. A company’s own description of its funding is not an industry finding.
- Be wary of rankings and return claims. The evidence reviewed includes no platform-by-platform yields, default rates, market shares or like-for-like returns, so there is no basis here to say any platform is best or that P2P beats bank deposits or listed bonds.
What this means for different readers
If you are considering investing
Treat the FCA’s controls as a checklist for any platform: does it show clear risk warnings, offer a cooling-off period, categorise you and test appropriateness? Do not assume FCA authorisation limits your potential losses.
Best Value
If you are an SME borrower
The commercial landscape is moving toward multi-product platforms. Confirm current UK eligibility and terms directly with the lender, and distinguish a term loan from a card or deferred-payment product.
If you are tracking the sector
Watch for a published, current series that splits consumer, P2B and institutional volumes. Until one exists, company results and FCA communications are the most reliable signposts, and each should be read for what it covers, not extended to the whole market.
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