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How much commercial real estate debt is due in 2026?
The MBA estimated that $875 billion—17 percent of $5.0 trillion in commercial mortgage balances held by lenders and investors—was scheduled to mature in 2026. The figures are unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2025. Because many loans amortize, the amount owed when they actually mature will generally be lower than the reported balance.
| Year | Scheduled balance | What the comparison shows |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $957 billion | The 2026 scheduled amount is 9 percent lower. |
| 2026 | $875 billion | 17 percent of the $5.0 trillion in outstanding balances covered by the survey. |
| 2027 | $652 billion | A substantial volume remains scheduled to mature after 2026. |
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026; survey balances as of December 31, 2025. These are scheduled maturities, not estimates of defaults, foreclosures or losses.
Why can’t some landlords refinance?
A commercial mortgage often has a balloon payment: the borrower makes payments during the loan term, but a large remaining balance comes due at maturity. To keep the property financed, the owner may seek a replacement loan. The new lender evaluates the property and borrower under current conditions rather than simply carrying forward the old loan amount.
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That can leave a gap between the new loan proceeds and the old loan payoff. Property income, occupancy, operating costs, updated collateral value, remaining amortization and lender underwriting all affect how much a property can support. If the new loan is smaller or more expensive than the existing debt, the owner may need to contribute cash or pay down principal to complete a refinance.
The Federal Reserve’s Spring 2025 Financial Stability Report described borrowers who had not yet secured refinancing amid tight lending standards, lower property valuations and interest rates above those prevailing when much of the debt was originated. That was a warning about refinancing pressure at that time, not a count of borrowers still unable to refinance in 2026.
Which property types face the biggest refinancing wall?
The MBA’s property figures measure the share of each property type’s mortgage balances scheduled to mature in 2026. They are not shares of the total $875 billion and are not default rates.
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| Property type | Share maturing | How to read the figure |
|---|---|---|
| Hotel and motel | 30% | Nearly three in ten dollars of hotel and motel mortgage balances were scheduled to mature that year. |
| Industrial | 23% | Just under one in four dollars of industrial mortgage balances were scheduled to mature. |
| Office | 17% | About one in six dollars of office mortgage balances were scheduled to mature. |
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026. These percentages compare maturity timing within each category; they do not show which category has the largest dollar amount due or the greatest likelihood of default.
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How does refinancing exposure differ by lender or holder?
The MBA also separated 2026 maturities by holder category. The percentages below are shares of the balances in each category scheduled to mature—not shares of all 2026 maturities.
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| Holder category | Scheduled balance | Share of category balance |
|---|---|---|
| Depository-serviced mortgage balances | $396 billion | 21% |
| CMBS, CLO or other ABS | $200 billion | 25% |
| Credit companies, warehouse facilities or other lenders | $163 billion | 29% |
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, February 9, 2026. These are distinct holder categories in the MBA’s survey; their shares should not be added together to infer the proportion of all commercial mortgage debt maturing.
Different loan structures and holders can mean different refinancing processes and flexibility. The table does not establish that one category will have more defaults than another. A maturity share describes when debt is due, not the quality of the collateral or the outcome of negotiations.
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Does the maturity wall mean a wave of defaults?
No aggregate forecast in the cited official material establishes what share of the 2026 maturities will fail to refinance, default or enter foreclosure. The $875 billion figure is a scheduled balance, not a projected loss total. Some loans may be paid down before maturity, and a maturity can be resolved in several ways without foreclosure.
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The broader market picture is mixed. The FDIC characterized commercial real estate as soft, particularly office, but stabilizing in 2025: property values edged up and transaction volumes increased, while net operating income growth slowed. Aggregate bank commercial real estate delinquency and charge-off ratios remained low, with conditions uneven across bank groups. Those indicators describe the market in 2025; they do not guarantee that a particular maturing loan can be refinanced.
Bank credit conditions also do not support a simple claim that all CRE lending has stopped. In its April 2026 survey covering the first quarter, the Federal Reserve reported basically unchanged commercial real estate lending standards and weaker or basically unchanged demand. Some reported terms shifted—including higher maximum loan sizes, narrower spreads over banks’ cost of funds and longer interest-only periods—but changes differed across loan categories.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What can happen when a commercial mortgage matures?
The outcome depends on the loan documents, property cash flow, collateral and negotiations between borrower and lender. Common paths include:
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- Full refinance: A replacement loan covers the payoff, subject to the new lender’s terms and underwriting.
- Refinance with additional equity or principal paydown: The borrower contributes cash to bridge a gap between new proceeds and the amount due.
- Accommodation or workout: The lender and borrower may modify terms or extend the loan. Federal Reserve guidance recognizes prudent CRE accommodations and workouts, in part because these loans can have short maturities and balloon payments. An extension alone does not establish whether a loan is healthy or distressed; that depends on the borrower, collateral and terms.
- Property sale: The owner sells the asset and uses the proceeds toward the debt, if a sale can be completed on acceptable terms.
- Default and possible enforcement: If the borrower cannot meet the obligation and no resolution is reached, the lender may pursue remedies available under the loan documents and applicable law.
What should borrowers examine before a maturity date?
A useful assessment starts with the specific loan and property rather than the national maturity total. Borrowers and lenders can focus on:
- The payoff amount and timing: Confirm the maturity date, outstanding principal, accrued amounts and any required notice or extension steps in the loan documents.
- Current property performance: Review occupancy, rent collections, operating expenses and net operating income, including changes since the original loan underwriting.
- Supportable replacement proceeds: Compare financing proposals and their conditions with the payoff. A quoted loan amount is not necessarily committed funding.
- Potential equity needs: Determine whether cash, a principal paydown, a sale or another negotiated solution may be needed if proceeds fall short.
- Workout terms and consequences: If an extension or modification is proposed, assess the full terms and how they affect the borrower and collateral—not just the additional time.
The relevant question is not simply whether a property’s loan appears on a maturity schedule. It is whether that specific property and borrower can meet the debt as it comes due, and which financing or resolution path is available under the actual circumstances.
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