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What were the two CME forecasts?
EarthSky described the events in its October 2 report as “two blobs of solar stuff — or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — are heading our way at Earth.” The forecast covered two eruptions with different origins and expected arrival windows; it did not say they would produce identical effects. EarthSky’s October 2 report was co-authored by C. Alex Young, Armando Caussade, and Raúl Cortés.
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| Event | Origin | Forecast arrival | Expected effect in the October 2 report |
|---|---|---|---|
| First CME | A filament eruption on September 28 | Later on October 2 | Could raise geomagnetic activity to G1 (minor) storm levels |
| Second CME | Associated with AR4535’s C8.6 flare on September 30 | October 4 | A possible weak glancing blow, potentially keeping conditions unsettled to active |
The first eruption’s initial analysis suggested an Earth-directed component. Specialists confirmed the CME associated with AR4535’s flare, but its projected impact was described as a weak glancing blow. Both arrival windows and effects were forecasts in the October 2 update.
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What was expected on each day?
- October 2: The September 28 CME was expected later in the day, with G1 (minor) storm conditions possible.
- October 3: A fast solar-wind stream from a large coronal hole could keep conditions active; G1 levels were possible. This stream was a separate driver, not one of the two CMEs.
- October 4: The AR4535 CME might deliver a weak glancing blow and maintain unsettled to active conditions.
The report did not establish what occurred after it was published, so the dates and possible storm levels should not be read as confirmed outcomes or as a description of conditions now.
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Could auroras be visible?
EarthSky said the forecast conditions could bring auroras to high latitudes. That is a possibility, not a promise of a display: the report gave no location-specific viewing odds and did not identify particular cities or countries likely to see auroras.
How active was the Sun in the preceding reporting interval?
For the 24-hour interval from 11 UTC on October 1 to 11 UTC on October 2, EarthSky counted five flares: one C-class event and four B-class events. The strongest listed was a C1.5 flare from AR4545, peaking at 21:37 UTC on October 1. The report also described background solar-wind speeds as low and geomagnetic activity as quiet, with a Kp range of 0–2, during that same interval. Those measurements are context for the report’s stated window, not later conditions. EarthSky’s October 2 update gives the event and activity summaries.
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What do the flare and storm labels mean here?
C1.5 and C8.6 are classifications of solar flares; they are not geomagnetic storm ratings. G1, by contrast, is the minor geomagnetic storm level mentioned in the forecast. The flare class describes the solar eruption’s X-ray intensity category, while the report’s G1 wording describes a possible geomagnetic response at Earth.
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