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A University of Arizona report published Aug. 28, 2026, says a study in Science found that El Niño events over the last 40 years were nearly 40% stronger than those in the 1,000 years before about 1850. The report does not specify the intensity measure behind that percentage, so it should be read as the study’s reported comparison—not as a fully defined metric.
What the study says—and what it compares
The study’s central finding, as summarized by the University of Arizona, is that the recent four-decade interval stands out against the millennium before about 1850. Lead author Julia Cole, a professor and chair of the University of Michigan’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, put the comparison this way: “Our findings tell us that the big El Niño events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.”
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That conclusion concerns how exceptional the recent interval looks in a long record. It is not, by itself, a claim that a particular future El Niño is certain to be stronger, or that the coral study measured impacts in every region affected by the phenomenon.
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How coral records reveal past El Niño conditions
Temperature clues in coral growth layers
According to the university report, researchers sampled cores from 13 living and ancient corals in the Galápagos Islands, where El Niño has a particularly strong influence. The report says corals grow about one to two centimeters a year, laying down layers that preserve chemical information about the seawater around them.
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The researchers analyzed strontium-to-calcium ratios in those layers to infer past seawater temperatures. Those coral-derived temperature records let the team compare modern variability with conditions reconstructed from the older corals and boulders.
What the climate models were used for
The researchers also used climate-model simulations to examine whether natural variability, volcanic activity, changes in Earth’s orbital configuration, or fossil-fuel-driven atmospheric warming could produce similar intensification over the past millennium. The report attributes this modeling analysis to co-author Diane Thompson and Marcus Lofverstrom, an associate professor in the University of Arizona’s Department of Geosciences.
The coral record is observational evidence about past ocean conditions; the simulations are a separate tool for investigating possible causes. The university’s summary does not establish that every possible natural explanation has been ruled out.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsWhy the nearly 40% figure needs careful reading
The University of Arizona report describes recent events as nearly 40% stronger, but it does not name the precise intensity metric, give uncertainty estimates, or provide the underlying paper’s full statistical details. Without those details, the percentage cannot be translated into a specific change in temperature, event duration, rainfall, or damage. The defensible reading is the attributed one: the study reports a substantially stronger recent interval than its pre-industrial comparison.
El Niño varies naturally over decades, so one active stretch does not automatically establish a cause. Thompson noted: “If you take hundreds of years, you’re going to get decades where it is more active, and you’re going to get decades where it’s less active. Sometimes it’s strong, sometimes it’s weak, all of that is normal.” The study’s simulations address that complication, but the university report does not supply enough detail to independently assess the models or quantify their uncertainty.
How El Niño affects weather beyond the Pacific
El Niño is a recurring natural pattern in which the tropical Pacific becomes warmer than usual. Normally, trade winds push warm surface water west from South America toward Australia. When those winds weaken, warm water spreads eastward. The ocean and atmosphere respond together: rainfall patterns and circulation shift, and the conditions can persist for one to two years.
Those shifts can influence weather far from the tropical Pacific. The university report notes that El Niño can shift U.S. storm tracks, bring wetter conditions to the desert Southwest and drier conditions to the Northwest, and raise drought or flooding risks in other regions. These are general effects described for context; the coral study’s reported comparison is not a new measurement of regional impacts.
What the finding does—and does not—tell readers
The study, as described by the University of Arizona, provides evidence that recent large El Niño events were exceptional relative to the preceding millennium. It does not provide a forecast for when the next event will occur or how severe its local effects will be. Those questions require current forecasts and regional impact assessments, not the long-term coral comparison alone.
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The underlying Science paper’s exact title, DOI, intensity metric, uncertainty estimates, and complete model configuration are not identified in the university report. Those details matter for a more precise interpretation of the percentage, so the result is best reported with the university’s attribution and without extending it beyond the comparison the report describes.
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