A 2026 study estimates that about 180,000 Aldabra giant tortoises live on Aldabra Atoll in the Seychelles. The University of Exeter gives the study’s best estimate as almost 183,000 adult and sub-adult tortoises. This is a statistical estimate based on monitoring observations—not a count of every tortoise—and it does not show that the population nearly doubled since an older estimate.
Where the tortoises live
The estimate concerns Aldabra giant tortoises (Aldabrachelys gigantea) on Aldabra Atoll, in the Seychelles’ Outer Islands in the western Indian Ocean. Aldabra is a raised coral atoll made up of four main islands: Picard, Grande Terre, Malabar and Polymnie. Together they cover 155.5 square kilometres. The study sampled transects across the principal islands where tortoises were present; none were present on Polymnie during the analysis period. The University of Exeter’s announcement and the 2026 study describe the location and survey.
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How researchers estimated the population
Researchers modelled monitoring observations collected by Seychelles Islands Foundation staff. The University of Exeter describes five years of counts, from 2018 through 2022. The paper reports a population of approximately 180,000 that appeared relatively stable between 2018 and 2021. Those dates refer to different things: the broader observation-collection period and the period covered by the paper’s reported estimate.
The study used Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling to estimate both abundance and the likelihood that tortoises would be detected in different habitats. In practical terms, a tortoise hidden by scrub, mangroves or shade may be present without appearing in an observer’s count. The model accounts for that imperfect detection rather than treating observed animals as a complete census. The paper’s bibliographic record is available from the National Library of Medicine.
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Why the new figure does not prove the population doubled
A frequently cited estimate from the late 1990s put Aldabra’s population at about 100,000. Comparing that figure directly with roughly 180,000 today might suggest a near-doubling, but the studies are not directly comparable. The older surveys did not account for tortoises that observers failed to see, while the newer model adjusts for detection differences across habitats. The new figure is better understood as a more complete baseline, not proof of a particular growth rate since the 1990s.
For context, fewer than 1,000 Aldabra tortoises remained after heavy exploitation in the 19th century, according to the University of Exeter. Aldabra became a strict nature reserve in 1981 and a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1982.
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Why the population matters—and what could threaten it
Aldabra’s tortoises are ecosystem engineers and keystone megaherbivores: their grazing and movement help shape vegetation and other ecological processes. The study attributes the large, stable population in part to sustained conservation and invasive-species eradication.
The researchers also identify pressures that could affect the population. Longer or more frequent droughts can reduce shade, water and forage, while rising sea levels threaten low-lying parts of the atoll. Feral goats, which damaged vegetation, were eradicated in 2012. Feral cats and black rats remain and prey on tortoise eggs and hatchlings; the researchers say eradicating these mammals could remove a barrier to population growth and resilience. These are concerns, not evidence that decline is inevitable.
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What the estimate tells us
The study offers a detection-adjusted estimate and a reference point for future monitoring—not a guarantee that the population will keep growing. As Dr Dave Hudson, a University of Exeter postdoctoral research associate, put it in the university’s October 7, 2026 announcement, “But it’s important to remember that the numbers provide a baseline – not an endpoint.”
The cited study and announcement do not establish a current formal threat category for the species, so the population estimate alone should not be read as a conservation-status classification.
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