Alinea Analytics estimates Steam generated $1.7 billion in revenue in September 2026, its best September to date, and $5.5 billion during the third quarter. The firm’s full-year forecast is more than $20 billion, but that is a prediction—not a completed total or revenue figure confirmed by Valve.
What are the September, Q3 and year-to-date estimates?
In its October 1, 2026 report, Alinea Analytics estimated Steam revenue at $1.7 billion for September. Alinea described that as a September record, 13% above the previous September high, which was set in 2025. The figures are estimates, not Valve-reported financial results.
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Alinea also put Q3 2026 revenue at $5.5 billion, its best third quarter to date and 12% higher than Q3 2025. For January through September, it estimated $16.5 billion, compared with $14.5 billion for the same nine months of 2025—a 13% increase.
| Period | Alinea’s estimate | Comparison reported by Alinea |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | $1.7 billion | 13% above the previous September record, set in September 2025 |
| Q3 2026 | $5.5 billion | 12% above Q3 2025 |
| January–September 2026 | $16.5 billion | 13% above Alinea’s $14.5 billion estimate for January–September 2025 |
Each comparison covers the same period in the preceding year. The nine-month figure is not a full-year result, and it should not be read as one.
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Is Steam on track to exceed $20 billion this year?
Alinea Analytics head of market analysis Rhys Elliott forecast that Steam would surpass $20 billion in full-year revenue, pointing to the remaining release slate. In Alinea’s October 1 report, he wrote: “Given the insane release slate for the rest of the year, it’s safe to say Steam’s yearly revenue will blow past $20B for the first time.”
That is Elliott’s estimate-based forecast, not a final 2026 total. As of the report, Alinea’s published figure covered the first nine months, and the full year had not been completed. The retrieved report does not give a complete explanation of how Alinea extrapolates its overall Steam revenue totals, so the estimates should not be treated as audited accounts or official Valve disclosures.
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Which games contributed to September’s revenue?
Alinea highlighted these premium games with its estimates of September Steam revenue:
| Game | Alinea’s September estimate |
|---|---|
| Wardogs | $86.9 million |
| Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $30.4 million |
| The Blood of Dawnwalker | $26.9 million |
| Bodycam | $24.2 million |
| EA Sports FC 27 | $20.7 million |
Alinea separately estimated that Counter-Strike 2, Apex Legends, PUBG and Dota 2 together generated almost $168 million on Steam in September. All the game-level amounts here are Alinea estimates.
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What does Alinea’s top-500 breakdown show?
Alinea says the top 500 grossing games it analyzed represented about three-quarters of September revenue. Within that group, it attributed about 79.5% of revenue to established intellectual property and 20.5% to new IP from 2026.
Free-to-play titles accounted for 25.6% of revenue among those top 500 games while making up 16% of the titles. These proportions describe Alinea’s stated top-500 group; they are not independently verified platform-wide breakdowns.
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What the numbers do—and do not—establish
- September record: Alinea’s $1.7 billion estimate is the firm’s reported record for September, not a Valve-confirmed disclosure.
- Growth: Alinea’s year-to-date estimate is 13% higher than its estimate for the corresponding nine months of 2025.
- Full-year outlook: The more-than-$20-billion figure is Elliott’s forecast for 2026, not revenue already earned.
- Game breakdown: The title-level figures and top-500 percentages are estimates and sample-based, rather than a complete audited account of Steam activity.
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