Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsAnalysts forecast that worldwide smartphone shipments would reach about 1.7 billion units in calendar year 2017. The figure was a prediction, not the eventual result: later IDC reporting put the 2017 market at approximately 1.5 billion. The underlying call—that smartphones would keep displacing feature phones, with cheaper devices and emerging markets driving growth—was broadly right. The forecast was too optimistic about how quickly the market would expand.
Who forecast 1.7 billion smartphones, and when?
The headline number appeared in more than one forecast. In 2012, Ovum projected 1.7 billion smartphone shipments in 2017 and estimated a 24.9% compound annual growth rate from 2011 through 2017. In 2013, IDC also forecast 1.7 billion units for 2017. These were separate forecasts, made in different years—not one shared estimate or report. Economic Times’ coverage of Ovum’s 2012 forecast and TTI’s summary of IDC’s 2013 forecast document the projections.
Both figures referred to worldwide smartphone shipments in calendar year 2017. They should not be read as counts of people using smartphones, devices sold directly to consumers, or phones active on networks.
What a shipment counts
A shipment is a unit sent by a manufacturer into the distribution channel. It may go to a carrier, distributor, or retailer before a consumer buys it, and it does not establish when—or whether—it was sold through. Shipment totals also differ from the installed base: one person may own multiple phones, and a shipped phone may replace an older one rather than add a new user.
The Tool Desk
Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →#1 Best Overall
- YOUR CONTENT, SUPER SMOOTH: The ultra-clear 6.7" FHD+ Super AMOLED display of Galaxy A17 5G helps bring your content to life, whether you're scrolling through recipes or video chatting with loved ones.¹
- LIVE FAST. CHARGE FASTER: Focus more on the moment and less on your battery percentage with Galaxy A17 5G. Super Fast Charging powers up your battery so you can get back to life sooner.²
- MEMORIES MADE PICTURE PERFECT: Capture every angle in stunning clarity, from wide family photos to close-ups of friends, with the triple-lens camera on Galaxy A17 5G.
- NEED MORE STORAGE? WE HAVE YOU COVERED: With an improved 2TB of expandable storage, Galaxy A17 5G makes it easy to keep cherished photos, videos and important files readily accessible whenever you need them.³
- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
That distinction matters when comparing forecasts with later figures. Estimates can be revised and may reflect changes in classification or reporting methods. The later 2017 number available here is approximate, not a definitive audited total directly comparable across every methodology.
Why analysts expected the market to grow so quickly
The forecast followed a period of exceptional adoption. IDC expected worldwide smartphone shipments to exceed 1 billion in 2013. Its 2013 outlook anticipated that smartphones would account for most mobile-phone growth as basic phones gave way to internet-connected handsets. IDC also expected total mobile-phone shipments—including feature phones—to exceed 2.3 billion units in 2017. That broader total is not the same as the 1.7-billion smartphone projection. TTI’s summary of IDC’s forecast describes the assumptions behind it.
Rank #2
- Carrier: This phone is locked to Tracfone, which means this device can only be used on the Tracfone wireless network. Tracfone plan required, activating is easy, just 3 steps.
- DISPLAY: Immersive viewing on a 6.7-inch super-bright 120Hz display with powerful stereo speakers and Bass Boost for cinematic entertainment.
- CAMERA SYSTEM: Advanced 50MP Quad Pixel camera captures sharp, detailed photos and videos in any lighting condition
- PERFORMANCE: Lightning-fast 5G connectivity paired with a powerful processor and RAM Boost for smooth multitasking.
- BATTERY LIFE: Long-lasting 5000mAh battery with TurboPower charging technology delivers hours of power in minutes.
Lower prices and wider availability
IDC pointed to smartphones priced below $200 as a way to bring the category within reach of far more buyers. Cheaper Android models were especially important to the expectation that smartphones could move beyond affluent early adopters. In developed markets, carrier subsidies also reduced the upfront cost of a handset, supporting upgrades and adoption.
Emerging markets and feature-phone replacement
Analysts expected China, India, Latin America, and other developing markets to contribute large numbers of new smartphone shipments. A region need not have the highest smartphone penetration to produce the most additional units: a large population with many feature-phone users can generate substantial volume as adoption rises.
Rank #3
- YOUR CONTENT, SUPER SMOOTH: The ultra-clear 6.7" FHD+ Super AMOLED display of Galaxy A17 5G helps bring your content to life, whether you're scrolling through recipes or video chatting with loved ones.¹
- LIVE FAST. CHARGE FASTER: Focus more on the moment and less on your battery percentage with Galaxy A17 5G. Super Fast Charging powers up your battery so you can get back to life sooner.²
- MEMORIES MADE PICTURE PERFECT: Capture every angle in stunning clarity, from wide family photos to close-ups of friends, with the triple-lens camera on Galaxy A17 5G.
- NEED MORE STORAGE? WE HAVE YOU COVERED: With an improved 2TB of expandable storage, Galaxy A17 5G makes it easy to keep cherished photos, videos and important files readily accessible whenever you need them.³
- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
In mature economies, the forecast anticipated smartphones would make up virtually all mobile-phone shipments by the end of 2017. Emerging markets were expected to retain more feature phones even as they became major sources of smartphone growth. Those are different claims about market share and volume, not a prediction that feature phones would disappear everywhere.
Fast upgrades and platform momentum
The growth outlook also depended on consumers replacing phones relatively often. For established users, analysts expected upgrade cycles of roughly two years to keep shipments elevated after first-time adoption began to mature. Android’s expanding device range and Apple’s continued presence were expected to anchor the platform market.
Rank #4
- PRIVACY DISPLAY: Automatically hide your screen from those beside you. The built-in privacy display can be preset¹ to turn on when receiving notifications, typing passwords, or using specific apps
- TYPE IT IN. TRANSFORM IT FAST: Enhance any shot in seconds on your smartphone by using Photo Assist² with Galaxy AI.³ Add objects, restore details, or apply new styles by simply typing or tapping
- NIGHTS, CAPTURED CLEARLY: From gigs to city lights, record and capture moments after dark with clarity using Nightography so your photos and videos stay crisp and clear on your Samsung Galaxy
- MAKE IT. EDIT IT. SHARE IT: Turn everyday moments into something personal with creative tools built right into your mobile phone, whether it’s a special contact photo, custom wallpaper, an invitation or more⁴
- HELP THAT KEEPS UP: Stay in the moment while Now Nudge with Galaxy AI helps you respond faster and stay organized with smart suggestions⁵ that appear exactly when you need them on your phone
What IDC expected smartphone platforms to look like in 2017
IDC’s 2013 forecast included estimated worldwide operating-system shares for 2017. These were projections, not measured 2017 results. Forbes’ coverage of the IDC forecast reported the following figures:
| Platform | IDC’s projected 2017 share | What the forecast signaled |
|---|---|---|
| Android | 68.3% | Expected to remain the leading smartphone platform |
| iOS | 17.9% | Expected to hold second place |
| Windows Phone | 10.2% | Expected to become a substantial third platform |
| BlackBerry | 1.9% | Expected to have a small but measurable share |
The Android-and-iOS-centered picture was broadly prescient, but the Windows Phone estimate was a major miss: it substantially overstated the platform’s eventual prospects. BlackBerry’s forecasted share likewise did not capture how nearly the platform would disappear from the mainstream smartphone market. The platform forecasts show why a reasonable call about total category growth does not guarantee accurate predictions about which operating systems will benefit.
Best Value
- Carrier: This phone is locked to Tracfone, which means this device can only be used on the Tracfone wireless network. Activating is easy, just 3 steps.
- ACTIVATION Promotion: Includes 1500 min, 1500 texts & 1500 MB Data + add more as you need it
- CAMERA SYSTEM: 50MP Quad Pixel camera. Capture sharper, more vibrant photos day or night with 4x the light sensitivity.
- PERFORMANCE: Blazing-fast Qualcomm performance. Get the speed you need for great entertainment with a Snapdragon 680 processor and 4GB of RAM.
- 64GB built-in storage. Get plenty of room for photos, movies, songs, and apps. Made for US
How the 2017 prediction compared with later estimates
Later IDC reporting described worldwide smartphone shipments in 2017 as approximately 1.5 billion, below the 1.7 billion forecast made several years earlier. A later outlook projected that shipments would reach 1.7 billion in 2021 instead. Mobile World Live’s summary of IDC’s 2017–2021 outlook gives the approximate 2017 baseline and 2021 projection. A separate summary put the 2016 base at approximately 1.47 billion and reported a 3.3% compound annual growth projection over the five-year outlook; that is a later forecast, not a retrospective count of 2017 shipments. Campus Technology’s report on the outlook also identifies first-time users and replacement cycles as growth drivers.
| Measure | Forecast or later estimate | Reading it fairly |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide smartphone shipments in 2017 | 1.7 billion forecast by Ovum in 2012 and by IDC in 2013; approximately 1.5 billion in later IDC reporting | The later reported estimate is about 200 million, or roughly 13%, below the original round-number target; definitions and methods may differ. |
| Worldwide smartphone shipments in 2021 | 1.7 billion projected in IDC’s later outlook | This was a subsequent projection, not evidence that the original 2017 forecast came true. |
| IDC’s projected 2017 OS shares | Android 68.3%; iOS 17.9%; Windows Phone 10.2%; BlackBerry 1.9% | A historical forecast, not observed 2017 market shares. |
The 13% comparison is approximate: it contrasts rounded forecast and later-estimate figures rather than a harmonized, audited series. It is useful for judging scale, not for implying precision the available reporting does not provide.
What the forecast got right—and what it got wrong
Right about the direction of the market
- Smartphones continued to replace feature phones and became the dominant form of mobile computing.
- Lower-cost devices widened access beyond wealthy early adopters.
- Emerging markets, including China, were important sources of shipment volume.
- Android remained the leading platform, while iOS retained a central position.
Too optimistic about timing and platform shares
- The 1.7-billion shipment level appears to have been reached later than the original 2017 target; later IDC coverage put the 2017 market near 1.5 billion and projected 1.7 billion for 2021.
- The forecasts extrapolated the rapid early growth phase without fully accounting for saturation in mature markets and the shift from first-time purchases to replacement purchases.
- IDC’s 10.2% Windows Phone share forecast for 2017 substantially overstated the platform’s trajectory.
Calling the shipment forecast simply a failure misses the distinction between its broad thesis and its timing. It identified real forces—affordability, emerging-market adoption, and the shift away from feature phones—but assumed those forces would translate into 1.7 billion annual shipments sooner than they did.
Why smartphone shipment forecasts are difficult
Annual shipment totals combine several moving parts: first-time buyers, replacement purchases, channel inventory, carrier and retailer ordering, and changes in regional demand. A device shipped into a channel is not necessarily bought by a consumer in that period. Nor does a shipment total reveal how many people have smartphones, how frequently they use them, or how long they keep them.
Forecasts also face a timing problem. Early adoption can grow at extraordinary rates while a large pool of first-time buyers remains. As mature markets approach saturation, the same headline shipment volume increasingly depends on replacements; slower upgrade cycles can then moderate annual growth even if smartphone ownership remains widespread. The rapid adoption rates that made the 2012–2013 projections plausible were not a guarantee that those rates would persist through 2017.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
