The smartphone market’s recent swings are real, but they are not literal “explosions”: shipment growth was modest in 2025, and analysts now expect a sharp contraction in 2026 as memory and other component costs rise. The downturn is uneven, with some major vendors gaining share while others lose shipments, and with foldables forecast to fare better than the wider market.
Why the smartphone market is changing so quickly
Smartphone shipments are sensitive to both supply costs and consumers’ willingness to replace a working device. Research firms identify memory shortages and higher component costs as important pressures behind the weaker 2026 outlook. Cost increases can make it harder for manufacturers to protect margins or keep entry-level phones affordable; consumers facing higher prices may delay an upgrade. These are analysts’ explanations and forecast drivers, not proof that one factor explains every company’s or region’s results.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Shipments are not the same as phones sold directly to consumers, and estimates from separate tracking firms should not be treated as one reconciled census. The figures below refer to global shipment estimates unless otherwise specified.
What happened to shipments in 2025?
Two firms put 2025 global shipment growth at 2%, but their published figures are separate estimates with different levels of detail. Counterpoint Research described its result as a preliminary estimate; Omdia also published a shipment total.
#1 Best Overall
- Universal unlocked. Compatible with all major U.S. carriers, including Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and other prepaid carriers.
- Super-bright, super-smooth 6.7" display. See your screen clearly even outdoors in sunlight, and enjoy seamless views with a fast-refreshing 120Hz display.*
- AI-powered camera system. Take stunning photos in any light with the 50MP camera**, look your best with a 32MP selfie cam*****, and capture extreme close-ups.
- Superfast 5G performance. Unleash your entertainment at 5G speed*** with the MediaTek Dimensity 6300 chipset and up to 12GB of RAM with RAM Boost****.
- Long-lasting battery + TurboPower charging. Power through day after day with a 5200mAh battery, then get hours of power in just minutes.****
| Publisher and date | 2025 result | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Counterpoint Research, January 12, 2026 | Shipments grew 2% year over year. | Preliminary estimate; the cited report identifies Apple as the annual leader. |
| Omdia, January 29, 2026 | 1.25 billion shipments, up 2% year over year. | Omdia’s own annual estimate, not a reconciliation of Counterpoint’s tracker. |
Sources: Counterpoint Research, January 12, 2026; Omdia, January 29, 2026.
Counterpoint’s preliminary 2025 estimate also put Apple at 20% of global shipments, with its shipments up 10% year over year. That is an annual estimate from Counterpoint, not the same period or tracker as IDC’s quarterly vendor results below.
Rank #2
- YOUR CONTENT, SUPER SMOOTH: The ultra-clear 6.7" FHD+ Super AMOLED display of Galaxy A17 5G helps bring your content to life, whether you're scrolling through recipes or video chatting with loved ones.¹
- LIVE FAST. CHARGE FASTER: Focus more on the moment and less on your battery percentage with Galaxy A17 5G. Super Fast Charging powers up your battery so you can get back to life sooner.²
- MEMORIES MADE PICTURE PERFECT: Capture every angle in stunning clarity, from wide family photos to close-ups of friends, with the triple-lens camera on Galaxy A17 5G.
- NEED MORE STORAGE? WE HAVE YOU COVERED: With an improved 2TB of expandable storage, Galaxy A17 5G makes it easy to keep cherished photos, videos and important files readily accessible whenever you need them.³
- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
How steep is the 2026 downturn?
IDC’s final historical results show global shipments of 276.3 million in Q2 2026, down 7.4% year over year. Its September 8, 2026-updated smartphone insights page forecasts a 16.7% full-year decline, to just over one billion units. The quarterly result is reported history; the annual figure remains a forecast.
The forecast deteriorated during 2026: IDC’s May 26, 2026 analysis projected a 13.9% full-year decline, while its September-updated outlook projects a 16.7% decline. The later estimate supersedes the earlier global forecast; neither is a final annual shipment count. IDC attributes the worsening outlook in part to memory constraints and higher costs.
Rank #3
- Charger NOT Included, 6.7" Super AMOLED FHD+, 90Hz Refresh Rate, 385 ppi, 800 nits (HBM), 1080x2340px, 5000mAh Battery
- 128GB, 4GB RAM, microSDXC, Exynos 1330 (5nm), Octa-Core, Mali-G68 MP2 or Mali-G57 MC2 GPU
- Rear Camera: 50MP, f/1.8 (wide) + 5MP, f/2.2 (ultrawide) + 2MP, f/2.4 (macro), LED flash, panorama, HDR; Front Camera: 13MP, f/2.0, Android 14, up to 6 major Android upgrades, One UI 6.1
- 3G: HSDPA 850/900/1700(AWS)/1900/2100; 4G LTE: 1/2/3/4/5/7/12/13/14/20/25/26/28/29/30/38/39/40/41/48/66/71, 5G: 2/5/25/41/66/71/77/78 SA/NSA/Sub6/mmWave - Nano-SIM + eSIM
- US Model – Global Connectivity – Compatible with Most GSM Carriers like T-Mobile, AT&T, MetroPCS, etc. Will Also work with CDMA Carriers Such as Verizon, Straight Talk.
Sources: IDC Smartphone Market Insights, updated September 8, 2026; Q2 final results published August 28, 2026; IDC, May 26, 2026 forecast.
Which phone companies are gaining or losing ground?
IDC’s final Q2 2026 table shows a split rather than a uniform decline. Samsung and Apple increased shipments year over year and held the two largest shares in that quarter, while the other listed vendors had lower shipment volumes. Share is each vendor’s portion of shipments for that period; growth is the year-over-year change in its shipments.
Rank #4
- YOUR CONTENT, SUPER SMOOTH: The ultra-clear 6.7" FHD+ Super AMOLED display of Galaxy A17 5G helps bring your content to life, whether you're scrolling through recipes or video chatting with loved ones.¹
- LIVE FAST. CHARGE FASTER: Focus more on the moment and less on your battery percentage with Galaxy A17 5G. Super Fast Charging powers up your battery so you can get back to life sooner.²
- MEMORIES MADE PICTURE PERFECT: Capture every angle in stunning clarity, from wide family photos to close-ups of friends, with the triple-lens camera on Galaxy A17 5G.
- NEED MORE STORAGE? WE HAVE YOU COVERED: With an improved 2TB of expandable storage, Galaxy A17 5G makes it easy to keep cherished photos, videos and important files readily accessible whenever you need them.³
- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
| Vendor | Q2 2026 global shipment share | Shipment growth year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 22.7% | 8.1% |
| Apple | 20.2% | 14.9% |
| Xiaomi | 11.3% | -26.4% |
| OPPO | 10.5% | -17.1% |
| vivo | 7.7% | -19.6% |
Source for every value in the table: IDC’s final Q2 2026 results, published August 28, 2026. These are quarterly figures; they do not overturn Counterpoint’s separate preliminary estimate that Apple led the full year 2025.
Which regions and phone types face different pressures?
IDC’s May 2026 forecast projected declines across the regions it listed, with the largest expected drops in the Middle East and Africa and Central and Eastern Europe. These regional figures are from the May forecast; IDC’s later September page updates the global annual outlook, so the May regional projections should not be presented as newly updated results.
Best Value
- Carrier: This phone is locked to Tracfone, which means this device can only be used on the Tracfone wireless network. Tracfone plan required, activating is easy, just 3 steps.
- DISPLAY: Immersive viewing on a 6.7-inch super-bright 120Hz display with powerful stereo speakers and Bass Boost for cinematic entertainment.
- CAMERA SYSTEM: Advanced 50MP Quad Pixel camera captures sharp, detailed photos and videos in any lighting condition
- PERFORMANCE: Lightning-fast 5G connectivity paired with a powerful processor and RAM Boost for smooth multitasking.
- BATTERY LIFE: Long-lasting 5000mAh battery with TurboPower charging technology delivers hours of power in minutes.
| Region as labeled by IDC | Projected 2026 shipment change |
|---|---|
| MEA | -23% |
| Central and Eastern Europe | -19% |
| APeJC | -14% |
| North America | -6.3% |
| China | -13% |
Source for each regional projection: IDC’s May 26, 2026 forecast. The source uses the abbreviation APeJC; the figures are forecast changes, not final regional shipment results.
Foldables are a notable exception in IDC’s outlook. Its May 2026 forecast projected 20% growth for foldables, while the later September-updated page describes 12.6% growth. The later figure is the more current forecast available in these reports, not a final result. Source: IDC Smartphone Market Insights, updated September 8, 2026; IDC, May 26, 2026 forecast.
What the market shift means for phone buyers
Shipment forecasts can indicate pressure on availability, pricing and the mix of devices manufacturers prioritize, but they do not establish what a particular handset will cost or whether it is a good buy. These market reports do not identify the best current model or provide model-level price, software-support or repairability comparisons.
- If you are considering an entry-level phone: compare the full device and ownership cost, including the storage configuration and the manufacturer’s stated software-support period. A market-wide cost forecast alone cannot predict the price of a specific model.
- If you can wait to upgrade: waiting may let you compare more options if prices or availability are shifting, but the cited shipment reports do not predict a particular sale or price drop.
- If you want a foldable: the category’s more favorable shipment forecast does not by itself establish better value, durability, support or availability. Judge a device on those model-specific factors rather than growth forecasts.
For readers, the most useful distinction is between what has already happened and what analysts expect next: 2025 shipment estimates show modest growth, IDC’s Q2 2026 figures show contraction, and the full-year outlook is still a forecast that may change.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
