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Freedom251 › Blog › AI chips

SK Hynix stock: Up big in H1, down 58% from its peak in H2 — is the AI boom losing steam?

By Freedom251 Team · · 5 min read

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Short answer: the selloff looks more like a valuation and execution reset than evidence that AI-memory demand has collapsed. SK hynix delivered record second-quarter results, but investors had priced in extraordinary growth. Reuters reported a 9.6% one-day drop after the July 29 release, a decline of more than half from the previous month’s record high, and a stock that was still about 115% higher year to date. The immediate trigger was an earnings result below very high expectations and slower-than-expected timing for HBM4 shipments.

What happened to SK hynix stock?

The reversal was dramatic because the starting point was unusually strong. Shares had reached a record high in June 2026, then fell about 58% by the second half of the year, according to the market framing around the move. On July 29, Reuters reported that the stock dropped 9.6% after SK hynix published its second-quarter results. Even after that decline, the shares remained approximately 115% above their level at the start of 2026.

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That combination—an exceptional year-to-date gain and a sudden drawdown—matters. A company can report enormous growth and still see its stock fall if the results do not exceed the forecasts already embedded in the price. Reuters described the quarter as a profit miss against lofty expectations and pointed to HBM4 shipment timing as an additional disappointment. Reuters’ July 29 report provides the market-reaction details.

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Record earnings show that demand has not disappeared

SK hynix’s own July 29 financial release shows a business operating at record scale. The company reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of KRW 79.3187 trillion, operating profit of KRW 60.5426 trillion and net profit of KRW 93.9226 trillion. First-half revenue exceeded KRW 100 trillion for the first time.

Measure Q2 2026 result Year-over-year change
Revenue KRW 79.3187 trillion Up 257%
Operating profit KRW 60.5426 trillion Up 557%
Net profit KRW 93.9226 trillion Not stated in the release summary
First-half revenue More than KRW 100 trillion First time above that level

SK hynix attributed the record quarter to demand for high-value DRAM, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI infrastructure. Its release says HBM4 mass shipments began in the second quarter, with production expected to ramp in the second half. The company also said it is expanding multi-year contract discussions with customers “to secure mid-to-long-term supply stability.” Read the company’s figures and outlook in the SK hynix Q2 2026 financial-results release.

Why can a record quarter send the stock lower?

Expectations were even higher than the reported numbers

AI-memory shares had been valued for continued upside surprises. When a stock has already risen sharply, investors are not asking only whether profits are growing; they are asking whether growth will be faster, larger and more durable than the market forecast. SK hynix’s 257% revenue growth and 557% operating-profit growth were historic, but they did not clear that higher hurdle.

HBM4 timing became an execution concern

HBM4 is the next major generation of high-bandwidth memory for advanced AI systems. SK hynix said mass shipments started in Q2 and that production would ramp in the second half. Reuters reported that the timing was slower than investors expected. A delay in volume shipments can affect near-term revenue recognition, customer supply plans and assumptions about how quickly the company can convert its technology lead into cash flow.

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Capacity spending raises the stakes

Reuters reported that SK hynix plans 2026 capital spending in the high-KRW-40-trillion range, compared with KRW 30.2 trillion in 2025. That investment can support future HBM and memory output, but it also increases the amount of capacity that must become productive and profitable. If demand, pricing or customer commitments weaken, a larger investment program can magnify the financial consequences.

Is the AI-memory boom losing steam?

The available evidence does not show an AI-memory collapse. Revenue, operating profit and first-half sales all reached records, and the company is still describing strong AI-infrastructure demand. The more precise conclusion is that demand remains strong while the stock has become much more sensitive to execution and forecast misses.

For the boom to keep supporting the valuation, HBM4 must move from initial mass shipments to a reliable second-half production ramp. Investors will also need evidence that customers are committing to volumes far enough ahead to justify the planned capacity. A strong quarter is no longer sufficient by itself; the market is testing whether the growth rate can continue at the exceptional level implied by the share price.

What to monitor through the rest of 2026

  • HBM4 volume: Look for shipped units and production progress, not only announcements that mass production has begun.
  • Customer commitments: Multi-year agreements can improve supply visibility, but their value depends on committed volumes, timing and pricing.
  • Memory pricing: Track high-value DRAM and HBM pricing alongside conventional DRAM and NAND. A strong HBM market may not offset weakness elsewhere indefinitely.
  • Capital efficiency: Compare the high-KRW-40-trillion 2026 investment plan with the speed at which new capacity reaches revenue-generating output.
  • Forecast revisions: The key signal after an expectations-driven selloff is whether analysts reduce or restore estimates for shipment growth, margins and cash flow.
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How to compare SK hynix with other AI-memory exposure

A simple share-price comparison can miss the factors that determine who benefits from AI infrastructure. Use these six tests when evaluating any memory-chip exposure:

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Comparison axis Question to ask
HBM generation and qualification How far has the supplier progressed from design and qualification to dependable customer shipments?
Shipment growth Are actual volumes keeping pace with customer forecasts?
DRAM and NAND pricing Is profitability supported across the memory portfolio or concentrated in one product?
Capital intensity How much spending is required, and how long before new capacity becomes productive?
Valuation What forward earnings and cash-flow assumptions are already reflected in the price?
Market access and currency Are you comparing Korean-listed shares with a U.S. ADR whose trading, currency and liquidity characteristics differ?

The cited results establish SK hynix’s HBM4 ramp and capital-spending plans, but they do not provide a complete peer valuation table. Any “cheaper” or “more expensive” conclusion therefore requires current market data outside these reported figures.

What the U.S. ADR debut means for investors

SK hynix expanded U.S. market access with an American depositary receipt debut in July 2026. The Associated Press reported that the ADR was priced at $149, opened at $170 and closed at $168.01 on its first U.S. trading day; the offering raised $26.5 billion. Those are first-day trading figures, not a guarantee of a continuing premium or of current availability through every brokerage. The Associated Press account documents the debut.

An ADR can make trading easier for some U.S. investors, but it does not remove exposure to the underlying company’s results, Korean-market developments or currency movements. Before trading, confirm the ticker, depositary terms, fees, settlement rules and eligibility with a regulated broker; those details can vary by country and can change.

Bottom line for the H1-to-H2 reversal

SK hynix’s stock fell because the market demanded more than record earnings: it wanted faster HBM4 execution and continued upside against an already extreme valuation. The evidence supports “AI demand is still strong, but expectations are doing more of the price-setting.” Whether the shares recover depends on the second-half HBM4 ramp, customer commitments, memory pricing and the returns generated by the enlarged capacity program—not on the existence of AI demand alone.

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