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Self-driving vehicles could change crash testing in two connected ways, and neither one means crash-test dummies are about to be retired. First, regulators and manufacturers may need to evaluate the automated driving system itself across defined scenarios, combining modeling, simulation, closed-track work and public-road testing. Second, crashworthiness testing may need to account for cabins without conventional driver seating, occupants seated in unfamiliar positions, and vehicles that carry no one at all. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) lists both as research areas. The change is an expansion of testing, not a replacement for it.
Where automated driving stands in the United States
The first thing to pin down is which vehicle a claim describes. NHTSA separates today’s driver-assistance features from higher levels of automated driving. Its Automated Vehicle Safety materials say fully automated vehicles are not available for consumer purchase in the United States. What operates on public roads today is limited testing and pilot programs, carried out under oversight. Availability changes quickly, so read this as NHTSA’s description at the time of its most recent material, not as a live status report.
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The distinction matters for crash testing. A driver-assistance feature still assumes a person is in control of the drive. Remove that person, and the questions shift from how a driver reacts to how the system behaves and how occupants fare. NHTSA’s own FAQ asks the question most readers bring to this topic: “How will I know automated driving systems are safe?” The methods described below are how the agency frames the evidence.
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Crash testing covers two jobs, and automation touches both. Crash avoidance asks whether technology can help prevent a crash or reduce its severity. Crashworthiness asks how well the vehicle protects the people inside it once a crash happens. NHTSA’s New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) rating roadmap treats these as distinct categories, alongside vulnerable-road-user safety and overall vehicle ratings.
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| Category | Question it answers | Who or what is protected | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crashworthiness | How well the vehicle protects occupants once a crash happens | Vehicle occupants, measured with occupant size, seat position, dummy and injury measures | Whether the vehicle or system would have avoided the crash in the first place |
| Crash avoidance | Whether technology can help prevent or mitigate a crash | Depends on the scenario; for automated systems, perception, decisions and control in repeatable scenarios | How occupants fare if a crash still occurs |
| Vulnerable-road-user safety | How the vehicle affects people outside it | Pedestrians and cyclists | Occupant protection inside the vehicle |
| Overall vehicle rating | A combined summary across categories | Depends on the individual categories | Which single factor drove the result; the weighting is not stated in NHTSA’s roadmap |
How testing of the driving system could change
With a human-driven car, the object under test is mostly the vehicle: its structure, restraints and occupant protection after impact. With an automated system, the object under test is behavior. NHTSA’s published framework describes partitioning the automated-driving performance space into testable factors, then refining those tests through a mix of methods.
Modeling and simulation
Simulation runs a scenario in software, where it can be repeated and varied without putting anyone at risk. This is the layer that makes large numbers of variations practical. Simulation results are only as good as the models behind them, so they are one layer among several rather than a standalone verdict.
Test-track work
A closed test track offers controlled, repeatable conditions. Engineers can set up the same hazard and compare how the system responds across runs. The trade-off is that a track cannot reproduce every traffic pattern, road surface or human behavior that a public road presents.
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Public-road testing
Open-road testing captures conditions that no model fully anticipates. NHTSA describes public-road testing as limited and carried out under oversight. The trade-off runs in the opposite direction from the track: conditions are realistic, but they are hard to control or repeat.
Why the layers are combined
NHTSA says no single method alone establishes real-world safety. Each layer covers a weakness of the others: simulation scales, the track controls conditions, and the road shows what the first two did not capture.
How occupant protection testing could change
Crashworthiness is where dummies enter the picture. NHTSA’s overview of its automated driving system safety work lists three crashworthiness topics: alternative seating configurations, advanced test dummies, and compatibility with unoccupied vehicles. Each is a research topic rather than a finished test method.
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Alternative seating configurations
Vehicles designed without conventional driver controls may change seat orientation, restraint geometry and the number and placement of occupants. NHTSA’s standards review identified potential barriers linked to unconventional seating, which is discussed in the next section.
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Dummies remain relevant because occupant protection remains relevant. Future test tools may need to represent more body types, seating positions and restraint interactions than today’s standard setup covers.
Vehicles with no occupants
Some automated vehicles may carry no one. NHTSA lists compatibility with unoccupied vehicles as a crashworthiness topic. The open question is how crashworthiness is assessed for a vehicle with nobody inside. The sources cited here do not describe a finished test method for that case.
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Federal standards and NCAP run on separate tracks
Two government tracks may change, and they should not be confused. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) set requirements that manufacturers test against and certify. NHTSA says companies test their own vehicles and certify compliance. The agency’s published materials describe its research and possible updates; they do not describe an independent government crash test for every automated system. NCAP is a separate consumer rating program.
| Track | What it is | Status in NHTSA’s sources | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FMVSS review for automated designs | Review of existing federal standards for conformity challenges posed by automated vehicle designs | 81 standards examined across the multi-year project; the final volume covered the remaining 23, including potential issues linked to unconventional seating | NHTSA release, December 11, 2025 |
| NCAP updated ratings | Consumer ratings covering crashworthiness, crash avoidance, vulnerable-road-user safety and overall vehicle ratings | Planned implementation starting with model year 2028 vehicles, in the fourth quarter of 2027 | NHTSA final decision on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), November 18, 2024 |
A research report or roadmap is not proof that a proposed test is already mandatory. The NCAP date is the plan as published in November 2024. Agency schedules can move, so check NHTSA’s current NCAP pages before relying on it.
Will crash-test dummies become obsolete?
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) addressed this question in a November 10, 2016 article titled “Robot Cars Won’t Retire Crash-Test Dummies Anytime Soon.” That piece is nearly a decade old and describes the deployment picture of its time, so its market statements and estimates should not be read as current. The part still worth carrying forward is its core point that dummies would not become obsolete in the near term. That is a claim about the near term, and it is the part to rely on.
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The official optimism, read carefully
NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said, in the agency’s December 11, 2025 release announcing the final volume of its standards work: “The future of automated vehicles is right around the corner.” That is a policy statement. It is not a technical finding, and it is not a schedule guarantee for any particular vehicle or test.
How to read a self-driving crash-test claim
When a headline or manufacturer says an automated vehicle passed a crash test, check five things before drawing a conclusion:
- Test category: does it measure crash avoidance, crashworthiness, or both?
- Scenario: what road, speed and operating conditions were used, and was the result from simulation, track work or public-road testing?
- Who is protected: occupants only, or pedestrians and cyclists as well?
- Occupant setup: what occupant size, seat position, and dummy and injury measures were used?
- Authority: is it a mandatory federal compliance test, an NCAP consumer rating, a manufacturer’s own test, or research evidence?
A result that answers one of these questions does not carry over to the others. A strong crash-avoidance result says little about occupant injury measures, and an NCAP rating says little about how a driverless system would behave in a scenario it was not tested against.
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