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A study published in Nature Human Behaviour estimates that about 2.22 million Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people lived in Australia in 1788. When that reconstruction is compared with the 1861 census benchmark, the model indicates that roughly 2.06 million excess deaths occurred over 73 years, leaving about 7% of the estimated pre-colonial population.
What the 93% estimate means
The figure describes the decline from the study’s median estimate for 1788 to its 1861 benchmark. It does not mean that scientists counted 2.06 million individual bodies, or that every death can be assigned to one event. It is a modelled estimate of excess deaths across the period from the First Fleet’s arrival in 1788 to the 1861 census.
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| Measure | Modelled figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Indigenous population in 1788 | 2.22 million median estimate | The study’s central reconstruction, not a direct census count |
| Earlier historical estimates | 250,000–1,000,000 | The range commonly used before this multi-method reconstruction |
| Excess deaths, 1788–1861 | 2.06 million | An estimated total generated by the demographic model |
| Average excess deaths | 28,200 per year | The 2.06-million estimate divided across 73 years |
| Estimated population remaining in 1861 | About 7% | The share of the study’s median 1788 population |
| Modelled range for total deaths | About 700,000–4.2 million | The uncertainty interval produced by the modelling |
| Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in 2021 | 812,728 | People who identified in the Australian Bureau of Statistics census |
Because the estimate is a median, other values within the model’s range remain possible. The researchers report a total-death range of roughly 700,000 to 4.2 million, reflecting uncertainty in both the starting population and the historical trajectory.
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Colonial authorities did not conduct a comprehensive national census of Indigenous Australians in 1788. Early records were fragmented, regional and often made after epidemics, dispossession and frontier violence had already reduced local populations. The study therefore used three independent lines of evidence that do not depend on colonial-era headcounts.
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Archaeological radiocarbon dates
The team analysed more than 5,000 archaeological radiocarbon dates. The distribution and timing of those dates provide a long-term signal of when people occupied different places and how population presence changed through time. This approach captures trends over thousands of years rather than relying on a few early colonial observations.
Genetic evidence
Genetic data were used to infer effective population size, a measure of the number of people contributing genes to later generations. Effective population size is not identical to a headcount, but it provides an independent constraint on the scale and history of Indigenous populations.
Environmental productivity modelling
A third model estimated how many non-agricultural people Australian environments could support, given environmental productivity. The method treats food and resource availability as a limit on population size while accounting for the continent’s varied environments.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThese methods rely on different assumptions. Their broadly similar results are why the authors argue that the 2.22-million median is more plausible than the older 250,000-to-1-million range, even though it remains an estimate rather than a census total.
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How the 73-year loss was calculated
The researchers compared the reconstructed pre-colonial population trajectory with early population records, including the 1861 census benchmark. The model estimates that the gap between the expected demographic path and the population represented by that benchmark amounted to about 2.06 million excess deaths from 1788 to 1861.
Dividing that estimate across the 73-year interval gives an average of approximately 28,200 excess deaths per year. The annual figure is a mathematical average, not evidence that mortality was constant: epidemics, violence, starvation and displacement varied by place and period.
There was no comprehensive national Indigenous census until 1971. That gap makes it impossible to reconstruct every community’s losses year by year from official records alone.
What caused the population decline?
The model cannot reliably separate deaths caused by overlapping forces. Disease could spread after people were driven from food sources; violence could produce hunger and displacement; forced labour and family separation could worsen exposure to infection and malnutrition. The study therefore presents a combined demographic effect rather than a percentage for each cause.
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Introduced infectious disease
Sources associated with the study identify smallpox, measles, influenza and tuberculosis among the introduced diseases that caused major mortality. The University of New South Wales reports a smallpox epidemic in the Sydney region in 1789, followed by outbreaks recorded in 1826–1838 and 1860–1869. Related modelling cited by UNSW estimates that the first epidemic may have killed up to 220,000 people in south-eastern Australia. That regional estimate is not the same as the national 2.06-million figure.
Frontier killings
Armed conflict and killings on the colonial frontier reduced populations directly and disrupted survivors’ ability to maintain communities and care for children. The national model incorporates the demographic consequences of this violence but does not claim to provide a complete list of incidents or victims.
Dispossession and restricted access to Country
Seizure of land, fencing and the destruction or occupation of food resources made established ways of living harder or impossible. The sources also describe food procurement being blocked or criminalised, increasing the risks of hunger and disease.
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Forced labour, separation and malnutrition
Forced and exploitative labour, family separation and malnutrition added further pressure. These conditions could increase deaths indirectly by weakening people, separating support networks and exposing communities to infectious disease. They are part of the structural violence surrounding colonisation, not separate events that can be cleanly tallied in isolation.
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Why the new estimate is higher than older figures
Earlier historical estimates of 250,000 to 1 million were constrained by incomplete colonial observations and records made after the population had already been affected. A local official might record only people who were visible, accessible or still living in a particular district. Such counts cannot reliably recover populations in remote areas or communities disrupted before the count was made.
The new study instead combines evidence accumulated over long periods and across the continent. Its higher starting point changes the scale of the subsequent loss, while the uncertainty range makes clear that the exact total is not settled.
What the evidence establishes—and what it does not
- Established by the model: a median 1788 population estimate of 2.22 million, a 2.06-million estimate of excess deaths by 1861, and a remaining share of about 7% at that benchmark.
- Not established as an exact count: the number of people who died in each year, colony or community.
- Not separable with confidence: the precise national shares caused by disease, killings, starvation, labour exploitation or other forms of structural violence.
- Still uncertain: the total-death range, which the model places at roughly 700,000 to 4.2 million.
Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University said that understanding Indigenous population size before European invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation. Professor Larissa Behrendt described the scale as “a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story.”
Population recovery and Indigenous survival
The demographic collapse did not erase Indigenous societies, cultures or connections to Country. Associate Professor Alan Williams, the study’s lead author, emphasised both the devastating impact of invasion and Indigenous survival, resilience and recovery over the past century.
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The 2021 Australian Bureau of Statistics census counted 812,728 people identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Flinders University described that number as about 37% of the study’s median 1788 estimate. The comparison is between a modern census count and a historical model, so it should not be treated as a like-for-like measurement of every aspect of population health or identity.
The study also projects that, if current growth trends continue, the Indigenous population could approach the estimated 1788 level around 2047. That is a conditional projection, not a guaranteed date: fertility, mortality, identification, migration, policy and other demographic factors can change the path.
Why the finding matters
A larger, evidence-based estimate changes how Australia’s colonial history is measured. It places disease, frontier violence, dispossession and coercive policies within a national demographic collapse rather than treating them as isolated local episodes. It also gives truth-telling and reconciliation efforts a clearer population baseline while recognising that survival and cultural continuity persisted despite the losses.
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