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The 38% decline refers to Sandisk’s net revenue in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022—not to quarterly revenue or unit shipments. In its 2025 S-1/A, Sandisk said substantially all of the decrease was driven by a 39% fall in average selling price (ASP) per gigabyte. The next scheduled earnings test is the company’s fiscal first-quarter 2027 report and call on October 29, 2026; as of October 13, the results had not yet been reported.
What the 38% decline measures
Sandisk’s 2025 S-1/A reported that net revenue decreased 38% in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022. Those fiscal years ended June 30, 2023, and July 1, 2022, respectively. The filing said substantially all of the decline was driven by a 39% decrease in ASP per gigabyte.
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That distinction matters: revenue reflects both how much storage a company ships and the prices and product mix it sells. Sandisk’s filing described the downturn as a combination of supply-demand imbalance, macroeconomic pressure, and product mix, but identified lower ASP per gigabyte as the main company-wide driver. The historical figures were presented on a carve-out basis for Sandisk’s flash business; Sandisk had not yet separated from Western Digital and become an independent public company.
How the downturn differed by end market
The filing’s end-market figures show that prices and shipment patterns did not move identically across the business:
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| End market | FY2023 revenue change vs. FY2022 | Filing’s stated context |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud | Down 60% | Exabyte shipments fell 28% and ASP per gigabyte fell 45%. |
| Client | Down 40% | ASP per gigabyte fell 42%. |
| Consumer | Down 21% | ASP per gigabyte fell approximately 30%, partly offset by 14% more exabytes sold. |
These are separate end-market results, not components that should be treated as identical explanations for the overall 38% decline. In consumer, for example, more exabytes sold softened—but did not reverse—the effect of lower prices.
How much the business had recovered before the next report
Sandisk’s August 5, 2026 results release reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year. Fiscal Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 51% sequentially. The company said roughly one-third of that sequential increase came from higher volume and two-thirds from higher pricing.
That price-led quarterly growth contrasts with the price-led FY2023 decline, but the two periods reflect different demand and pricing environments. The recovery does not establish that NAND memory has stopped being cyclical or that prices cannot fall again.
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Sandisk’s fiscal Q3 2026 end-market table offers an earlier view of how demand varied across the business: datacenter revenue was $1.467 billion, up 233% sequentially; edge revenue was $3.663 billion, up 118%; and consumer revenue was $820 million, down 10%. These are Q3 comparisons, not Q4 results; the fiscal 2026 and Q4 figures are more recent context.
When the October 29 report is scheduled
Sandisk scheduled its fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings call for October 29, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific / 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The date and time are from the company’s official earnings schedule. As of October 13, the report was still in the future, so its results, management commentary, and performance relative to analyst expectations were not yet known.
What to watch in the release
The fiscal 2023 filing shows why revenue alone can obscure the forces shaping the business. When the October report is available, these comparisons can help distinguish a broad change in demand from shifts in price, volume, or mix:
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- Get NVMe solid state performance with up to 1050MB/s read and 1000MB/s write speeds in a portable, high-capacity drive(1) (Based on internal testing; performance may be lower depending on host device & other factors. 1MB=1,000,000 bytes.)
- Up to 3-meter drop protection and IP65 water and dust resistance mean this tough drive can take a beating(3) (Previously rated for 2-meter drop protection and IP55 rating. Now qualified for the higher, stated specs.)
- Use the handy carabiner loop to secure it to your belt loop or backpack for extra peace of mind.
- Help keep private content private with the included password protection featuring 256‐bit AES hardware encryption.(3)
- Easily manage files and automatically free up space with the SanDisk Memory Zone app.(5)
- Pricing versus bits shipped: Compare any disclosed ASP or pricing commentary with bit or exabyte volume. Higher revenue with faster price growth has a different underlying profile from higher revenue driven primarily by shipments.
- End-market mix: Look at the contribution from datacenter, edge, and consumer, and whether their trends diverge. The Q3 2026 figures show why a single company-wide growth rate can hide distinct end-market patterns.
- Sequential and year-over-year growth: Read the two comparisons separately and against the latest company guidance available in the release. Sequential growth describes the change from the immediately prior quarter; it is not the same as growth from a year earlier.
- Revenue visibility and customer commitments: Compare management’s latest description of committed demand and the bit coverage associated with its New Business Model agreements with its earlier disclosures.
Do not infer an analyst-consensus beat or miss without a dated, sourced consensus figure. A company result by itself does not establish that comparison.
Can multi-year NAND contracts soften the cycle?
At its August 13, 2026 Investor Day, Sandisk said it had signed New Business Model agreements with eight customers. Management said those agreements represented approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and approximately two-thirds of FY2028 bits. It described the arrangements as including committed volumes, contractual frameworks with minimum financial guarantees, and structured pricing mechanisms.
Sandisk’s stated aim is to make planning and revenue visibility more predictable and reduce exposure to traditional industry volatility. These are management’s descriptions of the agreements and their intended effect—not evidence that NAND pricing or demand has ceased to be cyclical. The October report can be assessed for what it says about the agreements’ coverage and contribution, but the announced bit percentages alone do not reveal realized revenue, profitability, or how much demand remains exposed to market pricing.
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How to interpret Sandisk’s longer-term targets
At the same Investor Day, Sandisk set company targets for FY2028–FY2030 that included mid-to-high-teen revenue growth and approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margins. These are forward-looking company targets, not achieved results or independent forecasts, and depend on assumptions and risks. Sandisk also estimated that the potential enterprise datacenter flash total addressable market could reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2030; that is the company’s market estimate, not an independently established market statistic.
CFO Luis Visoso framed the outlook as management’s view: “As we unveil our new financial model for FY2028 through FY2030, we believe that we have a unique opportunity as we play in a large and fast-growing market with favorable tailwinds and that we are well positioned to capture the opportunity.” The statement describes the company’s perspective; it should be weighed against reported results and subsequent disclosures.
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