Prediction-market infrastructure is moving into mainstream brokerage and crypto apps, making target-style propositions technically possible. However, the sources available for this report do not document a live contract asking whether Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon will hit a named corporate target. Traders should treat the headline as a near-term market direction, not proof that those three contracts are already listed.
What is changing
Coinbase says its prediction markets are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM) and operated by Kalshi. Robinhood has a public Prediction Markets Hub that routes event contracts through several venues. That means customers may see contracts on elections, economic data, sports or crypto prices inside familiar financial interfaces rather than visiting a separate betting site.
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The expansion matters because a corporate-target contract could be expressed in the same yes-or-no format: for example, whether a company reaches a specified revenue, share-price or operating milestone by a stated date. No official listing or announcement reviewed for this article confirms that exact proposition for Coinbase, Robinhood and Marathon.
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How a yes-or-no event contract pays
Buy a defined outcome
An event contract represents the outcome of a future event. Robinhood’s contract pages state that a correct prediction pays $1 for every contract owned. A “Yes” contract that settles as true therefore returns $1 per contract; an incorrect position settles at $0, before any applicable fees. The contract’s rules determine the event definition, expiry, settlement source and timing.
Prices act like market-implied probabilities
Prices are set by buyers and sellers rather than by a bookmaker’s fixed odds. A contract trading near 40 cents can be read as roughly a 40% market-implied chance, although fees, liquidity and order-book conditions mean the price is not a guaranteed probability or forecast. Traders can generally sell before expiry if a market is available, so the final payout is not the only possible exit.
Settlement data can change the result
Settlement uses the reference specified in the contract rules. Crypto contracts may use a benchmark reference rate instead of an instantaneous quote from one exchange. For a corporate target, the relevant source could be a company filing, an official announcement or another named data provider. A target-style trade should not be entered until that source and the exact measurement date are clear.
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Where event contracts are available
| Interface | Exchange or routing information | What is established |
|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | Coinbase Financial Markets; contracts operated by Kalshi | Coinbase publicly describes prediction-market access through CFM. The available material does not confirm a Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon corporate-target listing. |
| Robinhood | KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, or NADX | Robinhood’s hub lists live markets and identifies these venues. Which venue handles a specific contract depends on the listing. |
| Rothera | Robinhood joint-venture exchange and clearinghouse | Robinhood’s Q2 2026 investor disclosure says Rothera launched in June as a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. |
Routing arrangements are not necessarily permanent. Axios reported that Robinhood signed a multiyear deal to route event-contract volume through Crypto.com’s OG.com derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, illustrating how the market’s plumbing can change.
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Not on the evidence currently documented. The reviewed Coinbase and Robinhood materials establish the platforms and their event-contract mechanics, but they do not show an official live market asking whether Coinbase, Robinhood and Marathon will hit specific targets.
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Availability can also differ by jurisdiction, account eligibility and the date of inspection. A market may appear in one state or country, be temporarily suspended, or use a different venue from another contract. Before treating a headline or social-media post as confirmation, check the live contract page for:
- the precise target and whether it is a level, percentage, filing-based measure or another definition;
- the measurement period, expiry and settlement date;
- the named data source and any fallback rule for revised or missing figures;
- the exchange and clearing venue, fees, minimum order and open interest;
- geographic and account restrictions; and
- whether the contract can be sold before settlement.
Who operates the infrastructure?
Kalshi and Coinbase Financial Markets
Coinbase identifies Coinbase Financial Markets as the channel for its prediction markets and Kalshi as the operator. Coinbase is therefore providing the interface and regulated-market access through CFM, while the event-contract exchange operation is attributed to Kalshi.
Robinhood’s expanding venue network
Robinhood’s hub names multiple venues rather than a single permanent exchange. Its Q2 2026 investor disclosure reports that Rothera launched in June and had more than 3.5 billion contracts traded to date. That figure is Robinhood’s reported cumulative total for Rothera, not a measure of contracts on any one company or a guarantee of liquidity for a future target market.
What the market numbers show
| Figure | Source and qualification | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| More than 3.5 billion contracts | Robinhood Investor Relations, Q2 2026 Exhibit 99.1; reported after Rothera’s June launch | Rothera’s cumulative trading figure to that disclosure |
| $156 million event-contract revenue | The Block’s report of Robinhood’s Q2 2026 figures | Reported event-contract revenue for the quarter, compared with more than $100 million in crypto-trading revenue |
| About $150 million modeled Q2 prediction-market revenue | Bernstein model reported by The Block, 2026 | Analyst estimate, not company-reported revenue |
| $160 Robinhood price target | Bernstein thesis reported by The Block, 2026 | Analyst target, not an event-contract settlement level |
| More than $70 billion opportunity | Bernstein thesis reported by The Block, 2026 | Analyst estimate spanning prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities and compute-linked markets |
Are these contracts legal?
Legality and access remain jurisdiction-specific and time-sensitive. Federal authority, particularly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s role, is still being contested against state gaming regulation. Axios reported CFTC chair Michael Selig saying, “it is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets.” Later coverage described Robinhood’s expansion as occurring amid continuing uncertainty over the boundary between federal CFTC authority and state gaming rules.
A platform’s presence in an app does not mean every resident can trade every contract. The exchange, product category, state or country, account type and current regulatory orders can all affect eligibility. Read the venue’s disclosures and the individual contract rules rather than relying on a general statement that prediction markets are available.
How to evaluate a future Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon listing
- Open the contract’s rule page from the platform’s live market interface, not only a promotional headline.
- Record the exact wording, target value, deadline and whether the proposition is “at least,” “above,” “within a range” or another condition.
- Confirm the settlement source, publication time zone and treatment of restatements, amended filings or delayed data.
- Check the current price, fees, bid-ask spread, open interest and maximum position before submitting an order.
- Verify that your location and account are eligible and that you understand whether the position can be closed before expiry.
- Keep the contract page and rule version for your records; a market’s displayed name may be shorter than its legally controlling settlement language.
What traders should expect next
The direction is clear even though the three-company market is not: brokerages and crypto interfaces are adding access to regulated event-contract venues, and those venues are competing on distribution, clearing and product range. If a target contract for Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon appears, its usefulness will depend less on the headline and more on precise wording, a credible reference source, sufficient liquidity and lawful availability in the trader’s jurisdiction.
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