For real-money event contracts, compare the venue’s legal and exchange structure, the specific market you want to trade, and its rules—not just its brand. Kalshi, Polymarket’s distinct U.S. and offshore venues, and event contracts distributed through Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel are among the options identified by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). They are not interchangeable, and availability, contract terms, fees, and legality can vary by location and change over time.
What a prediction market alternative actually offers
Prediction markets let participants buy and sell contracts tied to an outcome, such as whether a particular event will happen. In a common yes-or-no contract, the buyer chooses a side; if that side is correct, the contract typically pays $1. A contract price can therefore be read as the market’s implied probability—for example, a price near 40 cents suggests that buyers and sellers are pricing the outcome around 40%, before accounting for fees and other frictions.
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That price is not a guarantee, an objective forecast, or necessarily the probability an individual trader should assign. It reflects trading among participants and can move as they buy and sell. The plain-language description of the $1 payout comes from a public-comment submission hosted by the CFTC; it is a stakeholder document, not a CFTC determination.
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Platforms and routes to compare
The services below are examples identified in the CRS report, not a complete directory or a ranking. The evidence supports distinctions in venue structure and reported activity, but does not establish current fees, detailed eligibility, or the rules for every individual market.
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| Platform or route | What is established | What to verify before trading |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CRS characterizes Kalshi as a CFTC-regulated exchange and describes its event categories as broad. In CRS’s February 2026 snapshot, about 87% of Kalshi’s $39.7 billion traded in the prior year was sports-related. | Current access where you live, the availability and rules of the specific contract, its settlement source, fees, funding costs, and market liquidity. The reported sports share is a historical category figure, not a measure of liquidity in any one contract. |
| Polymarket’s offshore exchange | CRS distinguishes a large offshore exchange that it says claims to block U.S. users. In the same February 2026 snapshot, sports accounted for 38% of its $36.2 billion traded in the prior year. | Whether you are eligible in your location, which venue you are accessing, and that venue’s contract, settlement, fee, and funding terms. The volume figure is historical and does not establish liquidity in a particular market. |
| Polymarket’s CFTC-approved U.S. exchange | CRS distinguishes this smaller exchange, which it says is available to U.S. customers, from the offshore exchange. | Current eligibility, inventory, fees, funding, settlement, and liquidity. Do not assume the U.S. and offshore venues have identical access or rules. |
| Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel | CRS names these as companies offering event contracts, while noting that business practices differ. | The exchange or other venue involved, contract inventory and rules, location eligibility, fees, funding, and liquidity. The CRS report does not establish identical offerings or terms across these services. |
The CRS volume figures describe activity over the prior year as reported in February 2026; they are not current totals, forecasts, or direct comparisons of liquidity in an individual contract. The Polymarket figure is the sports share only, not a combined share for all non-sports markets.
How to choose among the options
If exchange structure is your priority
Start by checking which legal venue actually lists the contract. CRS characterizes Kalshi as a CFTC-regulated exchange and separately identifies a CFTC-approved Polymarket exchange for U.S. customers. It also distinguishes that Polymarket venue from the offshore exchange, which it says claims to block U.S. users. Those descriptions do not guarantee your eligibility today or establish that every contract on a venue is available to you.
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If you care most about a particular event category
Look for the exact contract rather than assuming a platform’s broad category labels mean it has the event you want. The CRS snapshot shows that sports represented a large share of reported trading on both Kalshi and the offshore Polymarket exchange, but those historical shares do not say which non-sports events are currently listed or how active a specific market is.
If you are comparing a broker or sports-company app
Treat Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel as additional places to check, not as a single interchangeable class. The CRS report names them as event-contract providers but does not establish that they use the same venue, offer the same contracts, or charge the same fees. Read the market’s terms in the service you would actually use.
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- STEM-Authenticated & Engaging: Approved by STEM educators, this game offers an addictive learning experience that's both intellectually stimulating and incredibly fun.
- Develop Real-World Skills: Face exciting market scenarios and cryptocurrency challenges to sharpen your decision-making skills in a highly engaging format.
- Play with Purpose: Enjoy an easy-to-learn, captivating game that gives back - a portion of our profits supports Feeding America, adding meaning to your gameplay.
Check the contract before placing a trade
- Confirm location eligibility. Check the service’s current rules for your jurisdiction and the particular product. Do not infer legal access from another user’s location or from a platform’s general availability statement.
- Read the contract’s resolution rules. Identify the exact event definition, deadline, and stated source or process used to decide the outcome. Similar-sounding contracts may resolve differently.
- Calculate the full cost. Review any trading fee, funding or withdrawal cost, and the price at which you can actually transact. Current schedules were not established in the CRS material summarized here, so verify them directly with the provider.
- Check liquidity in that market. Look at the available prices and the quantity available at them. Platform-wide or category-wide trading volume does not prove that a particular contract will have enough buyers or sellers at a useful price.
- Understand what the price says. Treat it as the market’s current implied probability, not as certainty or an authoritative prediction; it can change as participants trade.
Why access and legality need a current check
In the United States, event contracts sit within a changing legal and regulatory landscape. The CFTC administers the federal derivatives framework, but the boundary between federal oversight and state or tribal gaming authority—particularly for sports contracts—is being litigated. CRS reports that current CFTC leadership asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over contracts on registered designated contract markets, while states have challenged that view. The report also notes that the CFTC may review exchange self-certifications and that the Commodity Exchange Act identifies categories, including gaming and certain unlawful activities, that may be considered contrary to the public interest.
Those points are not a blanket statement that every event contract is lawful or available nationwide. In February 2025, then-Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham described the issue this way: “current Commission interpretations regarding event contracts are a sinkhole of legal uncertainty and an inappropriate constraint on the new Administration.” That was Pham’s statement, as reproduced by CRS, not a neutral finding that settles the current legal status of every market.
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