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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesZerodha founder and CEO Nithin Kamath described IPOs as the “only bullish corner of the market right now,” even as he said the broader market felt like a bear market. The contrast appears in recent data, but it depends on what is being measured: 67.2% of mainboard IPOs in the latest 12-month cohort traded above issue price at the October 6, 2026 close, while a separate analysis found a much smaller median gain on listing day.
What did Nithin Kamath say about IPOs and the wider market?
In a post on X on October 7, 2026, Kamath said, “The broader market has been steadily falling. The numbers may not fully show it, but it certainly feels like a bear market.” He contrasted that impression with IPO activity: “IPOs, on the other hand, are a full-on party. Most recent listings have done well, and you can see it in the rush of activity.”
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Kamath also said he did not remember the last time there had been such a stark divergence between the primary and secondary markets. These are his characterizations, not a universal diagnosis of market conditions. The Economic Times reported that the Nifty 50 closed at 22,603 on Tuesday, 3,770.2 points—about 14.3%—below its 26,373.20 peak, and was down 13.55% year to date. Those index figures are as reported by the outlet, rather than independently verified here. The Economic Times’ October 7 report attributed the IPO cohort data to figures shared by Kamath.
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →What do the latest IPO returns show?
The October 7 report compared mainboard IPO issue prices with closing prices on October 6, 2026. In its latest 12-month listing cohort, 67.2% of 125 IPOs were above issue price, and the median return was 24.7%. That is a cohort result at a specified endpoint—not a return every investor received.
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| Listing cohort | IPOs | Above issue price at endpoint | Median return at endpoint | Measurement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025–September 2026 | 125 | 67.2% | +24.7% | Issue price to October 6, 2026 close |
| October 2024–September 2025 | 95 | 47.4% | −9.4% | Issue price to October 6, 2026 close |
The preceding cohort was substantially weaker in the same snapshot: fewer than half of its 95 IPOs were above issue price, and its median return was negative. The comparison shows how much results can vary between adjacent listing periods; it does not establish that the stronger cohort will be repeated.
Gains were not universal
In the October 2025–September 2026 cohort, 32.8% of IPOs were below issue price at the October 6 close. The reported return bands make the spread clearer:
| Return versus issue price | Share of latest cohort |
|---|---|
| Down more than 50% | 5.6% |
| Down 25–50% | 6.4% |
| Down 0–25% | 20.8% |
| Up 0–25% | 17.6% |
| Up 25–50% | 18.4% |
| Up 50–100% | 17.6% |
| Up more than 100% | 13.6% |
Percentages and median returns in these tables are from The Economic Times’ report of data shared by Kamath. The analysis covers 401 mainboard IPOs across five rolling 12-month listing cohorts. It excludes SME listings, REITs, InvITs and FPOs; returns are measured from issue price to the October 6, 2026 close and exclude dividends. The reviewed report does not establish that the underlying full dataset was independently audited.
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A strong return at a later closing-price endpoint is not the same as a gain on the first day of trading. The latter asks whether the stock opened above its issue price, and by how much. Mint’s September 3, 2026 analysis examined IPO listing-day opening prices for a separate set of five rolling 12-month cohorts. In its latest window, September 2025–August 2026, 74.1% opened above issue price, but only 3.7% opened more than 50% above it; the median listing gain was 6.08%.
These figures should not be combined with the October cohort’s 67.2% above-issue share or +24.7% median. Mint measured opening prices on listing day; The Economic Times compared prices at the October 6 close, for a cohort with a different listing window. One measures the opening move, the other performance to a later date. Mint’s analysis also notes that a popular IPO can attract heavy demand without improving an individual applicant’s chance of receiving an allotment.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the data mean IPO listing gains are easy money?
No. A majority of IPOs in the latest reported cohort being above issue price at one later endpoint does not mean every issue gained, that an applicant received shares, or that a future listing will perform similarly. In that cohort, nearly one in three was below issue price at the stated close. And the separate listing-day analysis shows that opening gains varied in size: a positive opening was far more common than an opening more than 50% above issue price.
The results are historical cohort statistics, not a forecast or a recommendation. An individual outcome depends on the particular IPO, whether shares are allotted, and the price at which an investor can buy or sell. The reported figures are attributed to data shared by Kamath; the reviewed coverage does not show an independent audit of the full cohort calculations.
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