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New Zealand’s scheduled fuel supplies through the end of 2026 were secure, Z Energy chief executive Lindis Jones said, but he warned that strained global inventories and supply chains leave less room for disruption. The assurance is about shipments and supply plans—not a guarantee that prices will fall or that a new shock would have little effect.
What Z Energy says about New Zealand’s supply
Jones said shipments were arriving as scheduled and New Zealand had more stock than it did in March. Figures from his end-September briefing, reported by RNZ and 1News, put fuel in stock or in transit at nearly 54 days of petrol, 48 days of diesel and 46 days of aviation fuel. These are figures attributed to Z Energy’s briefing, not a government inventory snapshot.
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Jones paired that reassurance with a warning: “We’ve got more stock in New Zealand and this (Asia Pacific) region than we had in March; however, there’s far less room for error with global inventories down and a pretty stressed global supply chain.” He said the next piece of news could have a disproportionate effect, whatever it was. In other words, scheduled deliveries and current stock can look adequate while the international system remains vulnerable to a fresh disruption.
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The Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE) published a separate snapshot at 11:59pm on 20 September 2026: 60.6 days of petrol, 50.7 days of diesel and 53.3 days of jet fuel, combining stocks in New Zealand and fuel on the water. MBIE says it calculates days of cover using demand levels from before the conflict, and the totals exclude the Government’s diesel reserve. See MBIE’s fuel stockholdings data.
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The MBIE and Z Energy figures are not a like-for-like comparison: they refer to different dates and reporting bases, and the MBIE figures explicitly state their demand baseline and reserve exclusion. “Days of cover” is a calculation, not a promise that every fuel type will last exactly that many days under all conditions. Neither figure should be read as proof that New Zealand was already short of fuel.
Stock levels are different from the legal minimum
New Zealand’s minimum stockholding obligation sets a regulatory floor for fuel importers covered by the rules; it is not a count of the country’s total available fuel. MBIE lists minimum cover of 28 days for petrol, 21 days for diesel and 24 days for jet fuel. The rules cover fuel held within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone. From 1 July 2028, importers with more than 10% market share must hold 28 days of diesel cover. Details are on MBIE’s minimum stockholding obligation page, last updated 24 August 2023.
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Why prices could still face upward pressure
Jones said higher prices had reduced demand over the three months to September by about 6% for petrol and around 3–4% for diesel. He expected demand in the more recent period to be softer. Lower demand can ease pressure on available stocks, but it does not remove the risk posed by international supply conditions.
Jones assessed that price pressure was more likely to be upward than downward, partly because fuel could be drawn toward Europe if stocks there continued to decline. He pointed to the price differential between this region and Europe and said, “I think there’s more upward pressure on prices than downward pressure.” That is Z Energy’s assessment, not an official government forecast; secure scheduled supply does not itself imply cheaper fuel.
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