Nvidia is estimated to account for 37.3% of global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity in 2027, measured by buyer. That figure comes from Morgan Stanley channel checks relayed in a September 28, 2026 report—not from published allocations or a company disclosure. It is a forecast, not proof that Nvidia has secured or controls a fixed share of the world’s HBM supply.
What Nvidia’s estimated 37.3% share means
The estimate describes Nvidia’s projected share of global HBM capacity as a buyer in 2027. Morgan Stanley’s channel-check estimates, as reported September 28, 2026, put Nvidia at 37.3%, Alphabet at 36%, and AMD at 12.1%. The estimates are not company disclosures. Source: September 28, 2026 report relaying Morgan Stanley estimates.
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“Capacity by buyer” is not the same as a measured share of memory already delivered, installed, or consumed. It is also distinct from suppliers’ shares of HBM production. The number should therefore be described as an estimate of projected buyer demand or allocation, not as a confirmed market-control figure.
What Nvidia has actually disclosed
In its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, Nvidia reported $279 billion in aggregate supply and capacity commitments, up from $119 billion the previous quarter. The company said these commitments were primarily for memory and manufacturing facilities to support data-center products and future architectures. That disclosure covers more than HBM and does not state that $279 billion is an HBM purchase commitment or that it secures 37% of global HBM capacity. NVIDIA Corporation Form 10-Q.
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Nvidia’s filing says: “We have significantly increased our supply and capacity commitments from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion as of July 26, 2026 to meet future demand.” The reported totals are aggregate commitments, not an HBM-only breakdown.
Buyer share is not supplier share
The 37.3% figure concerns projected capacity by buyer. A separate forecast from BofA Global Research concerns the producer side: its August 7, 2026 estimates put SK hynix at 44% and Samsung at 37% of 2027 HBM bit market share. Those figures estimate each supplier’s portion of HBM bits, not Nvidia’s portion as a buyer. The two sets of percentages have different denominators and cannot be compared as if they measured the same thing. BofA Global Research forecast, August 7, 2026.
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How certain is the 2027 estimate?
The buyer-share estimate is attributed to Morgan Stanley channel checks through a secondary report; the underlying analyst research was not directly available in the cited material. Neither the estimate nor the supplier forecast is a reported 2027 outcome. Nvidia also warns that supply constraints, customer deployment delays, and changes in adoption can affect production and the timing of revenue. These factors make any fixed allocation uncertain. Nvidia filing discussion of supply and deployment risks.
The defensible takeaway is narrow: analysts reportedly estimate Nvidia will account for about 37% of projected global HBM capacity by buyer in 2027. Nvidia has disclosed large, broader supply and capacity commitments, but has not disclosed an HBM allocation matching that percentage.
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