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National Grid Weekly Recap: FY2027 EPS Outlook Moves Above 13–15% Range as UK Stays Even and US Back-Loads to H2

By Freedom251 Team · · 3 min read

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National Grid said on 5 October 2026 that it now expects FY2027 underlying earnings per share (EPS) growth to be slightly above its previously stated 13–15% range. The update also separates the group’s regional earnings pattern: UK regulated operating profit should be broadly even between the first and second halves, while US regulated profit is expected to be weighted toward the second half.

What changed in National Grid’s FY2027 EPS outlook?

The 5 October pre-close update is a positive trading signal, but it does not give a replacement percentage for the earlier 13–15% FY2026/27 underlying EPS growth guidance. “Slightly above” therefore indicates an improvement against the formal range without establishing a new quantified target.

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The comparison starts with National Grid’s FY2025/26 underlying EPS baseline of 78.0p. That baseline is the reference point for the FY2026/27 growth outlook and for the company’s longer-term investment plan. Investors should keep the two messages separate: 13–15% remains the previously issued numerical guidance, while the October statement says current expectations are modestly ahead of it.

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Why the UK profit profile is expected to be steady

Electricity Transmission

National Grid expects operating profit from UK Electricity Transmission to be broadly evenly split across the fiscal year. The phasing means the business is not relying on an unusually large second-half contribution to deliver its annual result.

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Electricity Distribution

UK Electricity Distribution is also expected to produce operating profit broadly evenly through the year. Taken together, the two UK regulated businesses should provide a relatively balanced earnings pattern rather than a pronounced first-half or second-half skew.

Management links the broader growth framework to higher allowed revenue as the company increases delivery from the RIIO-T2 regulatory period into RIIO-T3. Allowed revenue is the regulated income framework that supports network investment and operations; the transition is intended to support a higher level of activity and earnings over time, not just a one-quarter benefit.

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Why US regulated profit is back-loaded to the second half

US regulated operating profit is expected to be weighted toward H2. The main comparison issue is New England, where FY2026 included a one-off effect from a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) return-on-equity judgement. Management expects New England to return to a more typical seasonal profile in FY2027.

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That normalization changes the shape of the year-on-year comparison. A weaker first-half mix does not, by itself, signal a deterioration in the US regulated businesses; it reflects the reversal of an unusual prior-year item and the timing of revenue and operating profit across the US portfolio.

UK and US earnings timing compared

Comparison UK regulated businesses US regulated businesses
Expected FY2027 profit timing Broadly even between the first and second halves Weighted toward the second half
Main earnings driver highlighted by management Higher allowed revenue as delivery moves from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3 Seasonal phasing and normalization after the New England FY2026 FERC judgement effect
Key comparison risk Actual delivery and allowed-revenue timing could alter the even split First-half comparisons may look different because the one-off FY2026 effect is no longer repeated
Role in the group outlook Provides a balanced contribution through the year Builds more of its contribution in H2

How the update fits National Grid’s five-year plan

The company’s five-year framework calls for at least £70 billion of cumulative capital investment and underlying EPS compound annual growth of 8–10% from the FY2025/26 baseline. The programme covers network modernization and expansion in the UK and the US Northeast.

“National Grid is embarking on the largest investment programme in our history, committing at least £70 billion over the next five years to modernise and expand energy networks across the UK and the US Northeast – networks that underpin economic growth, strengthen energy security and enable the transition to a cleaner, more flexible energy system.”

— Zoë Yujnovich, Chief Executive of National Grid

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For context, National Grid reported £5,680 million of underlying operating profit and £11,576 million of capital investment in 2026. Those figures describe the FY2025/26 reporting year and are not forecasts for FY2027.

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What to watch at the next results checkpoint

National Grid’s next scheduled checkpoint is its half-year results on 5 November 2026. The pre-close indication can change when reported numbers are available, so the release should be used to test three points:

  • whether underlying EPS growth is still tracking slightly above the 13–15% range;
  • whether UK Electricity Transmission and Distribution remain broadly even in their first-half and second-half contribution; and
  • whether the US H2 weighting and the return to a normal New England seasonal pattern are developing as described.

The half-year figures may also provide more detail on how the RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3 allowed-revenue step-up is translating into operating performance and investment delivery.

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EarningsEnergy InfrastructureEPS guidanceNational GridUK utilitiesUS utilities

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