Ukraine recorded about three registered deaths for every registered birth in the first half of 2025, according to Ministry of Justice data reported by Opendatabot. The figures reflect a steep demographic challenge, but they do not show that Ukrainians generally have children out of national pride. UNFPA’s account centers instead on family hopes, personal choice and the wartime conditions that can prevent people from realizing them.
What the birth and death figures show
Ukraine’s Ministry of Justice recorded 86,795 births and 249,002 deaths in the first half of 2025, according to Opendatabot’s 18 July 2025 report. That is about three registered deaths for every registered birth during that six-month period. The same report counted 87,655 births in the first half of 2024, making the two half-year birth totals nearly level even as the longer-term picture remains sharply downward.
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For the full year 2024, UNFPA reported 176,700 births, 35% fewer than in 2021, citing Ministry of Justice figures. UNFPA also cited a projected fertility rate of 0.9 children per woman, compared with the 2.1 replacement level. Birth totals count events in a period; a fertility-rate projection is a different measure and should not be read as the number of births.
These figures show natural decrease in recorded births and deaths, not the whole change in Ukraine’s population. Migration and displacement, territorial coverage, and wartime data limitations affect how population change can be measured.
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Why the phrase “act of national pride” needs care
Having a child during a national crisis can carry personal and symbolic meaning. But the sources cited here do not establish that national pride is a representative or general reason Ukrainians become parents. Treating it as the motive of Ukrainian families would go beyond the evidence.
UNFPA Representative in Ukraine Jacqueline Mahon instead frames the issue around rights, choice and the social conditions that make family life possible. In a statement published on 11 July 2025, she wrote: “The fertility crisis is not about numbers. It is about rights, choices, and the social conditions that allow people to not just survive but to thrive.” She also wrote: “Because the real population challenge is not that people are having too few children — it’s that too many are prevented from having the families they long for.”
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That distinction matters: a low birth rate is a demographic outcome, while people’s ability to pursue the family lives they want is a question of choice and circumstances. A national-pride lens may resonate with some individuals, but it should not be used to imply that women or families have a duty to have children for the state.
How war shapes decisions about having and raising children
UNFPA says the full-scale war has reshaped reproductive choices through deaths, mass displacement, economic instability, and damage to health and education systems. People it hears from describe insecurity, job loss, mental-health challenges, and a lack of safe, affordable housing and childcare as reasons they cannot imagine raising children. These pressures can constrain, postpone or prevent parenthood; they do not explain every individual decision.
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The danger can also reach into pregnancy and childbirth. UNFPA described Anastasiia, a pregnant woman from frontline Sloviansk who was transferred to Kharkiv after complications. She received care at a maternity hospital being equipped with an underground bunker ward; UNFPA reported that she and her newborn survived. Her experience illustrates one wartime risk, not the experience of all pregnant people in Ukraine.
Many of the pressures predate the 2022 full-scale invasion. UNFPA’s October 2024 account identifies low birth rates, emigration and an ageing population as existing challenges that the war has exacerbated. The demographic story is therefore not a simple before-and-after count of births: it includes long-standing trends as well as the consequences of conflict.
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What population estimates can—and cannot—tell us
UNFPA estimated in 2024 that Ukraine’s population had fallen by 10 million since 2014, including 8 million since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. These are estimates, not a new census count. UNFPA noted that Ukraine’s last census was in 2001, making current population measurement especially difficult amid displacement and war.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesRegistration data, fertility-rate projections and population estimates answer different questions. Ministry of Justice registrations count recorded births and deaths for specified periods; a fertility-rate figure describes a projected measure per woman; a population estimate attempts to account for the number of people living in a place. They should not be combined as if they were interchangeable. Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has warned that some official statistics may not be published during martial law or war when their quality cannot be assured.
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Ukraine’s response focuses on the conditions for family life
UNFPA reports that Ukraine adopted a National Demographic Strategy focused on human capital. Its described priorities include care, health, education, and opportunities for young people and families. UNFPA’s recommendations also point to caregiving, gender equality, parental leave for fathers and family-friendly work as part of the social conditions that can support people’s choices.
That approach is broader than trying to raise a birth count: it addresses whether people can build secure lives and have the family they want. Florence Bauer, UNFPA Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said in October 2024: “While the return of peace to Ukraine is paramount, much can be done now to strengthen Ukraine’s human capital and build the foundations for the country’s demographic recovery.”
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Sources
- UNFPA Ukraine, “Statement by the UNFPA Representative in Ukraine,” 11 July 2025.
- UNFPA Eastern Europe and Central Asia, “Ukraine’s demographic challenges deepen amidst ongoing war,” 22 October 2024.
- Opendatabot, “There are three deaths for every newborn,” 18 July 2025.
- State Statistics Service of Ukraine, “Народжуваність (Fertility),” 19 September 2025.
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