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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThe International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 forecast puts economic growth across the Middle East and Central Asia at −0.3% in 2026, followed by a projected 6.3% expansion in 2027. The reported downgrade is tied to war-related disruption, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The regional total masks sharply different national forecasts: several Gulf economies are expected to contract steeply, while Oman is still projected to grow.
What the October forecast says
The October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) figures, attributed to the IMF in reports by IANS and AFP published October 13, are a forecast for the combined Middle East and Central Asia region—not a prediction that every country will shrink. The IMF’s reported regional estimate is a 0.3% contraction in 2026 and 6.3% growth in 2027.
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Compared with the April WEO assumptions, the October estimate is 2.2 percentage points lower for 2026 and 1.7 percentage points higher for 2027. The IMF wording quoted by IANS describes the revision as “consistent with a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compared with the baseline assumptions in the April WEO, and a corresponding larger rebound after the Strait reopens.” The October figures are corroborated here through wire reporting; the official April and July publications provide context, but do not independently establish the October estimates. IANS’s October 13 report and AFP’s October 13 report attribute the figures to the IMF.
Which countries face the steepest declines?
The reported country projections show the sharpest 2026 contractions among energy-producing Gulf economies affected by disruption to output and transport. The 2027 figures below are conditional projections, not guaranteed outcomes.
#1 Best Overall
| Economy | 2026 growth forecast | 2027 growth forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | −16.7% | +17.1% |
| Iraq | −16.0% | +19.0% |
| Qatar | −15.6% | +18.8% |
| Bahrain | −11.3% | +13.9% |
| United Arab Emirates | −3.9% | +7.7% |
| Saudi Arabia | −3.3% | +7.9% |
| Iran | −7.6% | Not stated in the October 13 IANS report |
| Oman | +4.1% | Not stated in the October 13 IANS report |
These are October 2026 WEO projections as reported by IANS on October 13; the Saudi Arabia figure is also reported by AFP. The differing trajectories illustrate why the regional aggregate should not be read as a country-by-country forecast. IANS describes the most affected economies as “commodity producers most affected by disruptions to energy output and transport.” IANS’s report provides the listed country estimates.
Why the war and Hormuz disruption affect growth
The October reporting links the downturn to the war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for energy shipments. Disruption can affect more than the volume of energy produced: it can also constrain exports and shipping, raise logistical obstacles, and weigh on related economic activity.
Rank #2
The IMF’s April 2026 regional outlook explains the broader channels through which a shock of this kind can spread: energy production and exports, air traffic, logistics, trade, tourism, confidence, and financing conditions. Those are channels identified in the April analysis, not separate October estimates of the size of each effect. The IMF’s April regional outlook page and its full text describe that context.
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Why the 2027 rebound is conditional
The projected 2027 growth rates assume that production, exports, and logistics normalize. A recovery in activity after a severe disruption can produce a high growth rate without restoring all lost output immediately; the forecast therefore signals an expected rebound, not a guarantee that economies will return to their previous path.
Rank #3
In remarks on October 1, the IMF managing director said Gulf Cooperation Council authorities had rerouted some supplies away from Hormuz and that investment in energy and logistics infrastructure, along with measures to ease shipping bottlenecks, helped limit broader fallout. The remarks also said the GCC economy was expected to contract in 2026 and that strong recovery depended on gradual normalization of shipping. A prolonged or renewed disruption could delay that recovery. The IMF’s October 1 remarks set out those conditions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How the forecast changed from July
Forecast vintages matter: the earlier July 2026 WEO put regional growth at +0.7% for 2026 and +6.5% for 2027. Those July estimates are not the current October projections. The later reporting says the revised outlook reflects a longer Strait of Hormuz closure than assumed in April. The July WEO regional discussion records the earlier forecast.
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Rank #4
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