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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFriedrich Merz is facing a sharp political test: recent polls show very low satisfaction with his work as German chancellor, while the CDU has suffered setbacks in three September state elections and national polling puts the CDU/CSU behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Those are related signs of pressure, but they measure different things: state election results, national vote intention and opinions of Merz’s performance.
What happened in the September state elections?
The CDU’s setbacks came in three separate state contests, not one national election. On September 6, the AfD defeated the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU had governed since 2002. On September 20, the CDU suffered losses in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
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| State and date | Result described in reports | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Saxony-Anhalt, September 6 | The AfD won, ending the CDU’s run governing the state since 2002. Le Monde | A major state-level loss for the CDU. |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, September 20 | The CDU fell below the 5 percent threshold for representation in the state legislature. Le Monde said this was the first time since 1949; AP described it as the party dropping out of the legislature for the first time in 77 years. Le Monde; AP | The CDU lost its state-parliament representation; AP noted that it was already weak there. |
| Berlin, September 20 | Die Linke finished ahead of the CDU. Le Monde; AP | A loss in a city that has long leaned left. |
The geography matters: Berlin’s result and the CDU’s weakness in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania do not, by themselves, establish how Germans would vote nationally. But the setbacks added to pressure on a party already trailing in federal vote-intention polling.
How unpopular is Merz, and what do the polls measure?
Recent surveys show low assessments of Merz’s performance, but they used different questions and fieldwork periods. Their figures should not be treated as a single continuous trend.
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| Poll and fieldwork | Question or measure | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, September 22–24, 2026; 1,346 eligible voters surveyed by telephone and online | Assessment of Merz’s work as chancellor | 79% said he was doing a rather poor job; 17% said his performance was good. ZDF described the survey as representative of Germany’s eligible voting population. ZDF |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, September 22–24, 2026; 1,346 respondents | Expectation that Merz would remain chancellor until the next regular federal election in spring 2029 | 65% did not believe he would remain in office until then. ZDF |
| Infratest dimap for ARD-DeutschlandTREND, October 2026 | Satisfaction with the chancellor’s performance | 10% were satisfied, which ARD described as a historical low. ARD |
| Forsa for RTL/ntv, fieldwork September 15–21, 2026 | Satisfaction with Merz’s work | 11% were satisfied and 87% dissatisfied. RTL/ntv |
The ZDF, ARD and Forsa results each indicate serious dissatisfaction, but their distinct questions and timing mean the percentages are not interchangeable. In particular, an assessment of Merz’s performance is not the same as a forecast of election behavior or a count of votes.
How does national vote intention compare with the state results?
Two recent national projections placed the CDU/CSU below the AfD by seven percentage points. These are hypothetical federal-election polling results, not election outcomes or guarantees of what would happen in a future vote.
| Poll | CDU/CSU | AfD | Other reported parties |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZDF Politbarometer, September 2026 | 21% | 28% | not stated in the cited release. ZDF |
| ARD-DeutschlandTREND, October 2026 | 20% | 27% | Greens: 16%; Die Linke: 11%. ARD |
These national projections provide context for the state losses, but they answer a separate question from whether respondents approve of Merz. A person can be dissatisfied with the chancellor without necessarily supporting a different party.
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Why do voters say the Union is losing support?
In a Forsa survey for RTL/ntv, respondents were asked about perceived reasons for the Union’s loss of voters. Multiple answers were allowed, so the percentages are not mutually exclusive—and they record what respondents believed, not experimentally established causes.
- 81% cited insufficient attention by the CDU and CSU to everyday concerns.
- 66% cited Merz.
- 64% cited the broken promise not to take on new debt.
- 57% cited what they viewed as socially unbalanced government policy.
The reasons question was fielded September 15–18, 2026, among 2,001 respondents, with a stated statistical error tolerance of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Among respondents who voted CDU/CSU in the 2025 federal election but no longer intended to vote for the Union, 86% named everyday concerns, 68% the debt pledge and 65% Merz. Those subgroup responses remain perceptions rather than proof that any one issue caused a voter to switch. RTL/ntv
Are voters calling for Merz to resign?
A separate Forsa question for RTL/ntv found that 55% favored Merz resigning, while 40% favored him remaining in office. Among CDU/CSU supporters, 78% backed his staying. This question was fielded September 17–21, 2026, among 1,509 respondents, with a stated error tolerance of plus or minus 3 percentage points. RTL/ntv
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That public-opinion result is not evidence of an internal party challenge. AP reported after the September 20 elections that there were no prominent public calls within the CDU for Merz to leave and no sign of a leadership challenge. The distinction is between what survey respondents prefer and what party figures are doing. AP
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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →What has Merz said about the losses?
Merz did not downplay the results. After the elections, he said, “We can’t sugarcoat the result,” and called it “a disaster.” He also described Saxony-Anhalt as “a turning point” and the CDU’s “worst electoral defeat in many years.” Le Monde
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In comments reported by AP, he said the CDU “no longer has satisfactory answers to too many questions, and we will and must change that.” The statement reflects Merz’s own assessment of the party’s profile, not an independent finding about why voters moved away from it. AP
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