Markets sharply reduced their implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its October 2026 meeting after a report of weaker-than-expected September job growth. An October 2 account put the chance at roughly 17–18% on CME FedWatch and 18% on Kalshi, while December estimates remained much higher. Those figures are dated market snapshots—not a Fed decision or a guarantee that rates will stay unchanged.
What were the reported odds of an October rate hike?
Economies.com reported that CME FedWatch put the probability of a quarter-percentage-point October increase at about 17%, down from close to 36% a week earlier. The same report gave Kalshi’s estimate as 18%, down from around 70% a week earlier. It also cited a second CME reading of 18% elsewhere in its article, so the careful summary is roughly 17–18%, rather than one definitive point estimate.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
These are estimates reported by Economies.com on October 2, 2026, not live odds. Market probabilities can move as prices change, and readings can differ by platform and observation time. Economies.com’s October 2 report is the source for the figures below.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
| Meeting | CME FedWatch, as reported October 2 | Kalshi, as reported October 2 |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | About 17%; another passage in the report gives 18% | 18% |
| December 2026 | Above 75% | 65% |
The estimates were not identical across platforms, especially for December. They describe market pricing at the time reported, not a measured likelihood that can be treated as an official forecast.
#1 Best Overall
Why did traders reassess October?
September job growth was reported as weak
The article said U.S. employment increased by 29,000 in September, against expectations for more than 80,000. The underlying government release and the source of the consensus estimate were not independently verified for this account, so these figures should be understood as reported by Economies.com.
Inflation data also entered the discussion
Economies.com also cited August core personal consumption expenditures inflation of 3%, compared with a 3.3% consensus forecast. It described the softer-than-expected reading as an earlier influence on October rate expectations. The report does not establish that either data point alone determined the change in market pricing.
Employment and inflation matter to the Fed’s dual aims of maximum employment and price stability. Weaker hiring can strengthen the argument for waiting before tightening, while persistent inflation can support the case for higher rates. Investors therefore weigh incoming data together; one weak jobs headline does not mechanically dictate the next decision.
Does this mean the Fed will not raise rates this year?
No. The same October 2 report showed considerably higher odds for a December increase than for October: above 75% on CME FedWatch and 65% on Kalshi. That gap suggests traders were pricing a possible later move rather than ruling out an increase altogether. It does not mean a December hike was certain.
Market-implied probabilities are derived from traded prices and reflect expectations, not commitments by Federal Reserve officials. They can change when new employment, inflation, or other economic information arrives. The report’s figures are historical snapshots and should not be presented as current probabilities.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What did economists say about the labor market?
The Economies.com article included a range of interpretations, rather than a single consensus view:
Rank #4
- Adam Schickling, senior economist at Vanguard, argued that the report supported patience: “The labor market has not deteriorated sharply, but there is also limited evidence of a meaningful improvement, giving policymakers reason to wait for more data.”
- David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said, “The labor market remains fundamentally healthy,” while pointing to labor-force participation and job gains in cyclical sectors.
- Preston Caldwell of Morningstar said officials would consider other data in the coming months.
- Jeff Schulze, chief investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, described the report this way: “Today’s weak jobs report shows that the labor market is simmering, not boiling.”
These are economists’ and strategists’ views as attributed in the article, not statements from the Federal Reserve.
The Tool Desk
Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Quick Recap
Best Value
How to read rate-probability headlines
- Check the date: A probability is tied to a particular moment and can become stale quickly.
- Check the platform: CME FedWatch and Kalshi showed different readings in this report.
- Check the meeting month: Low October odds coexisted with higher December estimates.
- Separate pricing from policy: Market-implied odds show what prices suggest traders expect; only the Federal Reserve makes the rate decision.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
