Steam could surpass $20 billion in revenue in 2026, according to a forecast by Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott. Alinea estimates the platform generated $16.5 billion through September, but these figures are analyst estimates—not revenue disclosed by Valve—and the full-year outcome is not yet known.
What is the $20 billion forecast based on?
In a post published October 1, 2026, Elliott said Alinea estimated Steam generated $5.5 billion in the third quarter, up 12% year over year, bringing its estimated total for the first nine months of 2026 to $16.5 billion. For comparison, Elliott put Steam’s revenue in the first nine months of 2025 at $14.5 billion, making the 2026 estimate 13% higher.
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On that basis, Elliott forecast that Steam would “blow past $20B” for the first time in 2026, citing the expected slate of releases in the rest of the year. It is a forecast, not a confirmed annual total or a guarantee. Alinea’s estimates are not official Valve financial results. Alinea Analytics’ October 1 post provides the underlying figures and game breakdown.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteWhy September’s revenue figure is disputed
Alinea’s original post estimates Steam revenue in September 2026 at $1.7 billion, which Elliott described as the platform’s best September to date and 13% above the previous September record. A GamesRadar+ report published October 2 gives a different September estimate: $1.6 billion. It repeats Alinea’s $5.5 billion third-quarter and $16.5 billion year-to-date estimates.
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The two accounts do not agree on September, and neither number is a Valve disclosure. The primary Alinea post’s figure is $1.7 billion; the discrepancy should not be resolved by averaging the figures or treating either as confirmed revenue.
What Wardogs and The Witcher 3 Remastered contributed
Wardogs
Alinea estimated that Wardogs generated $86.9 million on Steam in September, following its September 10 early-access launch. The analyst’s post also said the game had passed $100 million in Steam revenue overall at that point. That broader total includes revenue from before September, so it should not be confused with the $86.9 million monthly estimate.
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The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered
Alinea described The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered as a free upgrade for existing owners. It estimated the game sold 130,000 copies across Steam, PlayStation and Xbox on the day discussed. That is a combined, cross-platform estimate—not a Steam-only sales figure—and it counts copies, not revenue.
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For historical context, CD Projekt said in its Q1 2025 earnings transcript that The Witcher 3 had surpassed 60 million copies sold globally and generated PLN 2.4 billion in revenue over its first decade. Those are company-reported figures as of May 2025, not updated 2026 totals. CD Projekt’s Q1 2025 earnings transcript records the company’s statement.
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What the forecast does—and does not—tell players
Alinea’s estimates indicate strong revenue through September and support Elliott’s view that Steam could top $20 billion for the year. They do not establish Valve’s official revenue, confirm the final 2026 total, or show how much of Steam’s revenue came from any one game. The cited game figures also cover different measures: Wardogs’ September and cumulative Steam revenue estimates, and a Witcher 3 copy-sales estimate across three platforms.
Quick Recap
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- Valve is entering the gaming console marketplace with the new Steam Deck, a console geared towards PC gamers. The Steam Deck can be docked to a monitor, and used as a PC, or docked to a TV.
- Players can play a huge variety of games at any time with the comfort of a console and the freedom of a PC. Not anti-glare screen.
- Like the name suggests, the Steam Deck will include upgraded 1TB storage, and will include a carrying case. A micro SD slot will also enable expanded storage.
- Valve partnered with AMD to create a specialized APU optimized for handheld gaming, and Valve says the chip will deliver performance to run AAA gaming titles.
- The Steam Deck is outfitted with a 7-inch touchscreen, and two trackpads under the control sticks that allow gamers to operate games never designed outside of mouse and keyboard capabilities.
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