Samsung and Apple are holding prominent places in India’s smartphone rankings not because the market is growing, but because premium demand and channel support are helping them compete as shipments fall. Omdia estimated that India’s smartphone shipments declined 1% in 2025, then fell 5% year over year in Q1 2026 and 13% in Q2. Both companies remained among Omdia’s five leading vendors in each 2026 quarter—but shipment estimates are not the same as consumer sales, revenue, or profit.
How much is India’s smartphone market shrinking?
The scale of the decline depends on the period and the tracker. Omdia estimated 154.2 million smartphone shipments in India in 2025, down 1% from 2024. Its quarterly estimates show a steeper contraction in 2026:
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| Period | Tracker estimate | Shipment change year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Full-year 2025 | Omdia: 154.2 million shipments | Down 1% (Omdia, January 20, 2026) |
| Q1 2026 | Omdia: 30.9 million shipments | Down 5% (Omdia, April 21, 2026); Counterpoint estimated a 3% decline (Counterpoint Research, April 17, 2026) |
| Q2 2026 | Omdia: 33.9 million shipments | Down 13% (Omdia, July 21, 2026) |
Omdia and Counterpoint use separate trackers and methodologies; the available figures do not provide a reconciled, like-for-like comparison. The Q1 estimates should therefore be reported separately, not averaged. Omdia attributed pressure to factors including cautious spending and longer replacement cycles in 2025, and rising memory costs, price increases, currency depreciation, inflation, and weak summer retail footfall in Q2 2026. Those are the tracker’s explanations, not independently established measures of each factor’s effect.
Where Samsung and Apple stood in 2026
Both brands remained in Omdia’s top five vendors in Q1 and Q2 2026, even as the overall market contracted. Their shipment totals rose between those quarters, but the figures do not show that either company gained share across the year or escaped market pressure.
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| Vendor | Q1 2026 Omdia estimate | Q2 2026 Omdia estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 5.1 million shipments; 16% share; ranked second | 5.9 million shipments; ranked second |
| Apple | 2.9 million shipments; appeared in Omdia’s India Q1 top five for the first time in its series | 3.5 million shipments; remained in the top five |
Quarterly shipment figures are Omdia estimates, not audited consumer sell-through. A shipment is not necessarily a phone bought by an end user, and shipment share is not revenue share, installed base, or profitability. (Omdia Q1 2026; Omdia Q2 2026)
Why Samsung is holding its position
A broad range of models supplies volume
Samsung’s performance is not explained by flagships alone. Omdia linked Q1 volume to entry-level Galaxy A07 and A17 models as well as a late-quarter boost from the Galaxy S26 and refreshed mid-range A-series. In Q2, it again identified the A07 and A17 as volume drivers. A portfolio spanning lower-cost phones, mid-range options, and premium devices gives Samsung multiple routes to shipments when consumers are cautious about upgrading.
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Premium models add a second source of strength
Counterpoint reported that the Galaxy S series reached its highest-ever share within Samsung’s own shipment portfolio in 2025. That is a portfolio-mix observation: it suggests the flagship line became more important to Samsung, but does not establish that premium phones alone drove the company’s ranking or that Samsung held a particular share of India’s premium market. (Counterpoint Research, February 2, 2026)
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For Q2 2026, Omdia cited Galaxy Forever, exchange, buyback, and distributor-financing programs supporting the Galaxy S26 series and channel confidence. These mechanisms can make an expensive phone easier to access or reduce the retailer’s exposure to inventory risk. They are reported contributors, not proof that any one offer caused Samsung’s shipment result.
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Why Apple is holding its position
The base iPhone 17 helped broaden the shipment story
Omdia linked Apple’s Q2 2026 shipments to inventory build-up for the base iPhone 17 ahead of expected price increases. Its account also cited financing, exchange, and cashback programs as factors supporting sell-out. The reported role of the base model matters: Apple’s position in the quarter was not described only in terms of its highest-priced devices.
Value share and unit share are different measures
Counterpoint characterized Apple’s 2025 value share in India as a record in the title of its release, while documenting growth in the premium segment. The accessible release summary does not establish a precise Apple value-share percentage. A record value share also does not mean Apple sold the most phones: higher-priced devices can account for a large portion of market value while representing a smaller portion of units. (Counterpoint Research, February 2, 2026)
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Premiumization helps, but it is not the whole explanation
Counterpoint estimated that India’s smartphone segment priced above INR 30,000 grew 11% by volume in 2025 and represented 22% of shipments. It called this the fastest-growing segment by volume and reported that the market’s value grew 8% that year. That combination—fewer total shipments, but growth in a higher-priced tier—helps explain why premium-focused vendors can remain prominent during a downturn.
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It does not mean all premium demand went to Samsung and Apple; Counterpoint’s market coverage includes other brands. Nor does premium growth establish that either company was immune to affordability pressure. Omdia cited higher input costs, cautious consumer spending, longer replacement cycles, and reduced mass-market affordability among the factors weighing on the broader market. (Counterpoint Research; Omdia)
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What the figures do—and do not—say about the outlook
Omdia’s July 21, 2026 release forecast a double-digit decline for India’s full-year smartphone market, while Counterpoint’s April 2026 release had described a single-digit decline for 2026. These were forecasts from different providers, not settled results. As of October 7, 2026, the sources cited here do not establish full-year 2026 shipments.
Omdia analyst Sanyam Chaurasia said retailers prioritized brands with lower inventory risk and stronger premium demand, placing Samsung and Apple in a better position to capture channel inventory. That is the analyst’s explanation for their relative standing—not an official statement from either company or a quantified breakdown of what caused their shipments. (Omdia, July 21, 2026)
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