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What the below-1% forecast means
Rakesh’s call concerns organic revenue growth at large-cap Indian IT-services firms. “Q2” in the report refers to the September quarter; the report does not specify a fiscal-year label. The forecast is below 1%, with the missed seasonal recovery given as the reason for the subdued outlook.
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The figures and views below are attributed to Rakesh or BNP Paribas as reported by Moneycontrol. The outlet’s October 6 article is labeled an AI-assisted live blog; the underlying BNP Paribas research note and interview transcript were not available in the report. Read the numbers as forward-looking estimates, not confirmed outcomes. Read Moneycontrol’s report.
What BNP Paribas reportedly expects from Infosys and HCL Technologies
Moneycontrol reported that BNP Paribas expected the organic revenue guidance midpoint to be reduced by 25 basis points for Infosys and 100 basis points for HCL Technologies. These are expected changes, not company-confirmed guidance revisions.
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The report also says HCL Technologies’ expected guidance would begin incorporating acquisitions. Organic growth excludes acquired revenue, while reported growth can include it, so the two measures should not be treated as interchangeable. The report does not provide further details on the calculations behind the expected guidance changes.
How the report connects growth and valuations
Low growth and earnings multiples
Rakesh said growth near 1% could correspond to a valuation of around 12 times one-year forward earnings for companies such as TCS and Infosys. Moneycontrol did not provide a valuation model or calculation details, so this is an attributed illustration—not a verified valuation rule or price target.
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Nifty IT assumptions
In Rakesh’s conditional framing, a Nifty IT level of 26,000 sat alongside roughly 1% growth, which he characterized as no real growth. A higher index level, he said, would imply expectations of approximately 2–3 percentage points of growth. These are assumptions about what market levels may imply, not a validated index target or forecast of where the index will trade.
Tech Mahindra comparison
The report describes Tech Mahindra as a strong alpha play and discusses its premium relative to peers. Rakesh compared large-cap valuations with a period when peers delivered around 5–6% growth. He cautioned against a direct comparison, saying: “The other large cap peers are hardly delivering any organic growth and hence this comparison is not exactly the right way to look at it.” Moneycontrol attributes that quote to him; it was not verified against an interview transcript.
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What investors should take from the forecast
The central implication is that the valuation discussion depends on the growth assumption: near-stagnant organic growth is a different backdrop from the approximately 2–3 percentage-point or historical 5–6% growth comparisons in the report. The article does not establish that those higher growth rates will return, nor does it provide a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.
To assess what actually happened in the September quarter, use the companies’ official results and filings for realized organic growth and any updated guidance. Those results are distinct from the analyst expectations reported on October 6, 2026.
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