Hurricane Simon shifted course slightly on Sunday, October 11, 2026, and the forecast then favored a close pass off Mexico’s Pacific coast rather than a direct short-term landfall. That did not mean the coast was safe: the storm’s inner core and rain bands still threatened severe wind, heavy rain and dangerous waves. These details reflect forecasts and reports available on October 11–12, 2026; tropical cyclone tracks and warnings can change quickly.
What changed in Simon’s forecast?
On Sunday, the forecast shifted from an anticipated landfall to a close offshore passage. AFP reported that hurricane-hunter aircraft data showed Simon moving more slowly than previously expected. The later forecast brought the storm to about 15 kilometers (nine miles) off Jalisco’s coast, rather than directly ashore in the short term. That was a forecast, not a guarantee of the eventual track. AFP’s October 12 report described the change.
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The National Hurricane Center’s evening Discussion Number 19 said Simon was showing signs of weakening, likely because it had remained close to the coastline and nearby mountainous terrain. The NHC’s discussion set the storm’s initial intensity for that advisory at 105 knots. Discussion Number 19 is the dated advisory context, not a current forecast.
Why an offshore track still posed a threat
Wind and hurricane conditions
AFP reported that Simon had been downgraded to Category 3 on Sunday. Citing the latest NHC report available to it, AFP gave sustained winds of 200 kilometers per hour (125 mph) and forward movement of 7 kph. Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico’s meteorological service, warned: “We’re going to have very severe effects, especially from wind along the coast,” AFP reported. The agency also said the storm’s eastern inner core could bring hurricane conditions even if the center stayed offshore.
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Rainfall and flooding exposure
A slow-moving storm can keep rain over the same areas for longer. Boris Comi, a meteorologist with Jalisco’s civil protection agency, said Simon had remained “nearly stationary” and that this “can ‘generate more rain over a longer period,’” increasing risk to people. The NHC’s forecast explanation, as rendered by AFP, said Simon “appears to be feeling the effects of the nearby high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as the inner core is brushing up against the Mexican coast.” These observations describe the storm’s situation at report time; they do not establish how much rain any location ultimately received.
Waves and coastal impacts
Vazquez warned of waves up to nine meters (30 feet), according to AFP’s October 12 report. High waves and severe coastal winds can threaten exposed shore areas even without a direct landfall. They are distinct hazards from rainfall and inland flooding.
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How Simon’s intensity had changed
The storm’s reported category and intensity varied across advisories as conditions evolved. The NHC described Simon as a Category 4 hurricane at 9 a.m. CST on October 11 in Discussion Number 17, while AFP later reported a downgrade to Category 3 that Sunday. By the evening’s Discussion Number 19, the NHC set an initial intensity of 105 knots and noted signs of weakening. These are time-specific snapshots, not conflicting descriptions of one unchanging moment.
What was happening along the Jalisco coast?
Puerto Vallarta and other coastal communities faced the possibility of wind, rain and wave impacts. AFP reported that the Mexican Navy evacuated about 100 people by boat from threatened coastal communities to Puerto Vallarta on Saturday. The report said the city had already taken in 95 people at shelters by Saturday, with others expected to go to one of five shelters set up there. AFP also described businesses boarding up and troops guarding the waterfront promenade. These are figures and observations reported at the time, not a live count.
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Where to check for current warnings
The October 11–12 reports cannot establish Simon’s present position or current danger. For an active storm, use the latest official advisory and local instructions rather than relying on a prior forecast or the offshore-track description. Check the National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional for updated information.
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